San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/16/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 3:45 pm ET, Thursday, September 16, 2021
Venue:  Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
Where to Watch:  MLB Network


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +160, Giants -190; Over/Under:  8 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +165, Giants -185; Over/Under:  8 runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +155, Giants -190; Over/Under:  8 runs

Season Record

San Diego Padres:  74-70 (3rd place, NL West)
San Francisco Giants:  95-50 (1st place, NL West)
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San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
San Diego Padres:  3-7 last 10
San Francisco Giants:  9-1 last 10

Offensive Analysis

The San Diego Padres are ranked 19 in the league for batting average (.239), 15 in the league for RBI (615), 22 in the league for hits (1137), and they are ranked 10 in the league for OBP (.320). The San Francisco Giants are ranked 8 in the league for batting average (.248), 6 in the league for RBI (686), 6 in the league for hits (1211), and they are ranked 6 in the league for OBP (.328).

Defensive Analysis

The San Diego Padres are ranked 9 in the league for ERA (3.87), 7 in the league for saves (41), 6 in the league for strikeouts (1363), and they are ranked 9 in the league for WHIP (1.23). The San Francisco Giants are ranked 2 in the league for ERA (3.24), 1 in the league for saves (51), 14 in the league for strikeouts (1270), and they are ranked 2 in the league for WHIP (1.13).


Padres vs Giants Prediction

The San Diego Padres are taking on the San Francisco Giants in the series finale of a four-game series on Thursday. Wednesday's game is still to be played with that result pending. The Giants have now taken the first two games of this series, winning 9-1 in the series opener on Monday and winning 6-1 in game 2 on Tuesday. 
The Padres are coming into this matchup after losing 5 games straight, the Giants taking the first 2 games of this series, and getting swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers Friday, Saturday, and Sunday that ended in defeat all around in a three-game series. Joe Musgrove will be the starting pitcher on the mound for Wednesday's game while there is no starting pitcher listed yet for this game on Thursday. It may just be a bullpen day for San Diego’s bullpen as recently it does not matter who is the starter for them, they just keep losing games. The Padres have been on a downward spiral in the last week as they just keep losing games. They were in the 2nd wildcard spot just a week ago but have now fallen behind the St. Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds. Their offense has gone completely cold putting up just 2 runs in their last 3 games but allowing their opponents to score 23 runs against them in that span. They will have a big mountain to climb and with few games left in the regular season, they need to start winning games now if they want to have a run at the postseason.
The Giants are coming into this game after winning 9 games in a row with Wednesday's result still pending. Dominic Leone will be the starter on Wednesday while right-hander Kevin Gausman is throwing the first pitch for his team on Thursday. Gausman is 14-5 with a 2.65 ERA this season and he has the most wins on the season out of all the starting pitchers in the rotation on this current roster. The team has won 6 of their last 8 games when he has been the starter but he has actually been credited with 5 wins in a row now when there was a decision. In his last outing, he allowed 3 ER and 0 BB with 9 Ks on 8 hits through 6 IP against the Chicago Cubs. He has faced this Padres lineup twice this season, once back in April and then again in May. There was a no-decision in 1 of those games so he is 1-0 but the team is 2-0 against the Padres with him starting and he only allowed 1 ER in each of those games. The Giants' offense has been real hot as they have scored at least 6 runs in each of their last 9 games. They are clearly the better team here and they just keep getting better as the playoffs near just around the corner.
The Padres have been really bad over the last week and that streak needs to end if they want to see themselves in the postseason this year. It is hard to bet on a team in such a bad slump and especially when going up against the best team in the league. It does not matter how desperate the Padres are for a win here, they cannot be a team taking any bets in their current situation. The Giants odds may be a little steep at the current price as the Padres are the underdogs but the only wager to place here would be on the Giants either money line or run line as they will come out as the winners.
Padres Giants Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, September 16, 2021 (3:45 pm ET start time) is Giants 10 Padres 4.
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MLB Betting Trends

San Diego Padres: 74-70 (-30.6 units) on the money line in all games. 30-35 (-22.2 units) on the money line against division opponents. 
San Francisco Giants: 95-50 (+40.8 units) on the money line in all games. 31-11 (+15.3 units) on the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5.

Key Injuries

San Diego Padres:  J. Cronenworth (SS) Out indefinitely - Finger injury. M. Strahm (RP) Out indefinitely - Knee injury. T. Wingenter (RP) Mid Sept - Elbow injury. J. Ona (RF) Mid Sept - Elbow injury. N. Ramirez (RP) Mid Sept - Shoulder injury. J. Guerra (RP) out for season - Elbow injury.
San Francisco Giants:  D. Solano (2B) Ques Sat - Illness. A. Dickerson (LF) Out indefinitely - Leg injury. J. Quintana (RP) Out indefinitely - Personal. 

Players to Watch

San Diego Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. is one player to watch in this game. He leads his team in homers, stolen bases, and is tied for RBI. He will need to give it his best effort to help snap this team out of their slump. Look for him to make some big hits to try and spark this offense any way he can.
San Francisco Giants: Shortstop Brandon Crawford is one player to watch here. He leads his team in hits and in RBI. They have been rolling all week on a big hot streak so watch for him to keep the good fortunes going as this team is performing really well as an entire unit right now.

Notable Quotes

"It's more on us scuffling, struggling, not having the at-bats that we're capable of in a slump." - Jayce Tingler after his team lost yet another game in their downward spiral out of a playoff spot.
"You appreciate it for sure. But at the same time, all the guys have such a healthy urgency every day, so you can't sit back and reminisce at this point. There's still a lot of work and guys are getting to the ballpark each day and putting that work in and preparing and going out trusting that the work we've done leading to that is going to pay off." - Catcher Buster Posey about the possibility of his team being in the World Series.

Starting Lineups

San Diego Padres
T. Grisham CF
F. Tatis Jr. SS
M. Machado 3B
E. Hosmer 1B
A. Nola C
A. Frazier 2B
W. Myers RF
J. Profar LF
J. Arrieta P
San Francisco Giants
T. La Stella 2B
B. Belt 1B
B. Posey C
L. Wade Jr. LF
B. Crawford SS
K. Bryant 3B
M. Yastrzemski RF
S. Duggar CF
A. DeSclafani P

Statistics (Stats) Leaders

San Diego Padres
Batting Average:  A. Frazier (.300)
Hits:  A. Frazier (155)
Home Runs:  F. Tatis Jr. (38)
RBI:  M. Machado (90)
Stolen Bases:  F. Tatis Jr. (25)
Wins:  J. Musgrove (10)
Saves:  M. Melancon (37)
ERA:  D. Pomeranz (1.75)
San Francisco Giants
Batting Average:  B. Posey (.301)
Hits:  B. Crawford (125)
Home Runs:  Kris Bryant (24)
RBI:  B. Crawford (80)
Stolen Bases:  A. Slater (14)
Wins:  K. Gausman (14)
Saves:  J. McGee (31)
ERA:  D. Leone (1.41)
San Diego Padres: Manager Jayce Tingler (2nd season)
San Francisco Giants: Manager Gabe Kapler (2nd season)

Weather Forecast

62 degrees F mostly sunny, 80% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 15 mph wind speeds E.

Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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