San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Odds Preview and Picks - 10/01/2021

by James Q

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Odds Preview and Picks - 10/01/2021

Game Time: 9:45 pm ET, Friday,  October 1st,  2021 
Venue: Oracle Park, San Francisco, California 
Where to Watch: Bally Sports San Diego, NBCS BA

Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Moneyline:  Giants -130  Padres +110;  O/U :  8 runs
Caesars: Moneyline: Giants -130  Padres +110;  O/U :  8.5 runs

Season Record

Giants: 104-54  (1st place, NL West)
Padres: 102-56 (3rd place, NL West)

It is all almost over!  The season is drawing down to four games left and the Giants have held first through the most competitive August and September in recent memory.  The Giants have a 2 game lead on The Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West.  As much as the Padres would like to play spoiler for pride sake… they hate no team more than the Dodgers.  


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Padres vs Giants Preview and Analysis

Recent Form

The Padres are 1-9 over their last ten games.  They are on a 5 game losing streak, a single winning contest since the middle of September.  The Logged 6 Overs and 4 Unders.  They went 0-2 against the St Louis Cardinals, 1-2 against the San Francisco Giants, 0-3 against the Atlanta Braves, 0-2 against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Giants are 8-2 over their last ten games.  They notched 4 Overs and 6 Unders.  They went 1-1 against the Atlanta Braves, 2-1 against the San Diego Padres, 3-0 against the Colorado Rockies, 2-0 against the Arizona Diamondbacks.  They are on a 5 game winning streak with one more to play against the lowly Snakes.

Offensive Analysis

The Padres are 14th in runs scored at 4.55 per game, 14th in batting average .243, 10th in OBP .322, 23rd in home runs 178.  It has been a disappointing season and isn’t ending well.  There will be some hurt feelings in San Diego this offseason.  Hopefully it spurns some trades and signings.

The Giants are 6th in runs scored at 4.96 per game, 6th in team batting average .250, 4th in OBP .330, 2nd in home runs 237.  The Giants have been providing run support for a stellar pitching staff all season.


Defensive Analysis

The Padres are 14th in team ERA 4.05, 6th in strikeouts, 1484, 12th in WHIP 1.25.  Joe Musgrove is the team’s best, he’s 12th in ERA in the league… After him there is Yu Darvish who is 30th in the league at 4.22…. After YU… there is not much else of any consistency.

The Giants are 2nd in team ERA 3.26, 6th in strikeouts 1484, 12th in WHIP 1.25.  The Giants have Kevin Guasman, Anthony DeSclafani, Logan Webb, and Alex Wood. All guys who have more than ten wins.  The staff has combined to be 2nd in ER having only given up 514.


Padres vs Giants Prediction

Our prediction for Saturday, October 1st is…  Giants 5 - Padres 3


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MLB Betting Trends

San Diego is 78-80 in all games -36.1 Units on the moneyline.
San Diego is 33-39 against the NL West -22.6 on the moneyline.
The Giants are 104-54 in all games, +44.6 Units on the money line.
The Giants are 50-22 against the NL West, +29.9 Units on the moneyline.
The Giants are 72-32 as a favorite, +25.5 Units on the moneyline.

Key Injuries

Giants:  1B Brandon Belt (thumb) 10 Day IL *  LF Darin Ruf 10 day IL
Padres: C  Austin Nola  (thumb) out for season 


Players To Watch

Both the Padres and the Giants are still TBD on the mound.  

The Padres don’t know who they will be starting because they are busy closing shop for the season. They will most likely go with a bullpen game of young guys and call ups.   The signs that a big trade for help in the rotation are glaring.  The team is average in ERA, WHIP, BB,... you name it.  They spent all that money on Manny Machado and they have the most exciting young player in the game in Fernando Tatis Jr… they desperately need some fantasy baseball types tossing the first pitch.  Not just to help the rank, but for entertainment purposes.

The Giants are TBD because they are waiting until the math tells them when they can coast and rest their arms.  Tomorrow’s pitching decision will be made after they know the result of tonight’s Dodger game.  If the Dodgers don’t win out from here on in, the Giants can breathe easy and start resting arms for the postseason. 

Notable Quotes

“This one definitely hurts because of the way we came back,” Padres manager Jayce Tingler… about losing a big lead to the Dodgers who hit 4 homers in the eighth inning for an 11-9 win.  ( I hope you had the Over)

“Not for sale in NJ, WV, VA, TN”... The back of my energy drink, no explanation as to why?.. 

Starting Lineups

A. Frazier, LF
F. Tatis Jr., SS
J. Cronenworth, 2B
M. Machado, 3B
E. Hosmer, 1B
W. Myers, RF
T. Grisham, CF
V. Caratini, C

L. Wade Jr., RF
K. Bryant, LF
B. Posey, C
B. Crawford, SS
E. Longoria, 3B
W. Flores, 1B
M. Yastrzemski, RF
D. Solano, 2B


Statistical Leaders

Batting average: Fernando Tatis Jr .281
Home Runs:  Fernando Tatis Jr  41
RBI:  Manny Machado  103
Wins:  Joe Musgrove  11
Strikeouts:  Yu Darvish  199
Saves:  Mark Melancon  38
Holds:  Tim Hill  19

Batting AVG: Brandon Crawford .301
Home Runs: Brandon Belt 29
RBI:  Brandon Crawford  89
Wins: Kevin Gausman  14
Saves Jake McGee  31
Holds:  Tyler Rogers  29


Padres:  Jayce Tingler
Giants:  Gabe Kapler

Weather Forecast 

Sunny in the Day.  High of 76*  wind at 13 mph.  When the sun goes down San Francisco dips in temperature and the Ocean air picks up.  It can get downright nippy in the Stadium by the Bay especially in October.  The Padres will feel that chill in the pits of their stomachs… another season wasted.


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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