San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Preview and Odds - 06/29/2023

Game Time: 12:35 pm ET, Thursday, June 29, 2023

Venue:  PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA

Where to Watch:  MLB Network

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -195, Pirates +165; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -195, Pirates +165; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -195, Pirates +165; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

San Diego Padres:  37-42 (4th place, NL West)

Pittsburgh Pirates:  36-42 (4th place, NL Central)

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San Diego Padres:  4-6 last 10

Pittsburgh Pirates:  2-8 last 10

The Padres are entering this series on a 2 game losing streak and lost their 3-game series against the Washington Nationals 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 37-42 record overall and have a road record of 17-20. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Pirates on Thursday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. They also lost the series opener of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 16th in the MLB with a .721 OPS. Blake Snell is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Joe Musgrove is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 6-2 with a 3.88 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 0 HR, and 0 BB with 7 Ks on 6 hits through 7 IP against the Washington Nationals.

The Pirates are entering this series on a 2 game losing streak and lost their 4-game series against the Miami Marlins 3-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 36-42 record overall and have a home record of 19-19. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Thursday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. They also won the 1st game of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 22nd in the MLB with a .706 OPS. Mitch Keller is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Luis Ortiz is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 2-3 with a 3.74 ERA this season. His team lost 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 0 homers, and 2 BB with 5 strikeouts on 7 hits through 8 innings played against the Miami Marlins.

The current betting odds have the Padres listed as a big favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Padres haven't been good this season with a losing record overall but their pitching has been really good in their games. Meanwhile, the Pirates got off to a good start this season as they were producing a lot of offense in their games but they have slipped back under .500 on the season and their offense has also cooled off too. The Padres have Musgrove on the mound here and he was one of their best starters in the rotation last season, continuing that trend this year. He has been really good in his starts lately and he hasn't really given up many runs in any of his starts all year. He will keep pitching well in this game since the Pirates have been so bad on offense lately and also have one of the worst offenses in the league now. The Pirates have Ortiz starting in this game and he hasn't been giving up many runs in his starts either, but he is not as experienced as Musgrove is and even though the Padres lineup hasn't been performing well this season, they still have a lot of big bats that should be doing a lot more damage than they are and have the potential to still do so. The Padres won't struggle as much to put up runs in this game while the Pirates don't have the offense to put up many on Musgrove and the Padres bullpen that has been so good. The best way to place a bet here is on the Padres to win this game and on the runline.

Padres Pirates Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, June 29, 2023 (12:35 pm ET start time) is Padres 3 Pirates 0.

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San Diego Padres: 37-42 (-18.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 29-28 (-13.4 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 17-5 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5. 31-18 UNDER against right-handed starters.

Pittsburgh Pirates: 21-31 (+4.6 units) on the moneyline as a home underdog of +150 to +200. 35-44 (+7.2 units) on the moneyline against NL West opponents. 10-4 UNDER as an underdog of +150 or more. 21-14 UNDER in day games.

San Diego Padres:  Y. Darvish (SP) Ques Wed - Illness. S. Wilson (SP) Out indefinitely - Pectoral. M. Wacha (SP) Ques Fri - Shoulder. R. Suarez (SP) Mid July - Arm. T. Cosgrove (RP) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. L. Campusano (C) Late July - Thumb. D. Pomeranz (RP) Out indefinitely - Forearm. E. Rosario (3B) Mid July - Ankle.

Pittsburgh Pirates:  V. Velasquez (SP) out for season - Elbow. B. Reynolds (CF) Out indefinitely - Back. W. Crowe (SP) Early July - Shoulder. J. Hernandez (RP) Out indefinitely - Calf. R. Zastryzny (RP) Out indefinitely - Forearm. C. Holderman (RP) Out indefinitely - Wrist. J. Choi (1B) Early July - Achilles. J. Brubaker (SP) out for season - Elbow. O. Cruz (SS) Mid Aug - Ankle. J. Garcia (RP) Out indefinitely - Bicep. M. Kranick (SP) Late Aug - Elbow.

“We scored three runs and had good momentum then they scored three and that shouldn’t have been it for us. It just seems like they had a little bit more spirit the rest of the game that we did.” - Bob Melvin after his team’s loss against the Pirates in their game on Tuesday.

"(To have) both Henry and Nick having good days, I think that’s really important.” - Derek Shelton after his team’s win against the Padres in their game on Tuesday. 

Ha-Seong Kim (R) 2B

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF

Juan Soto (L) LF

Manny Machado (R) 3B

Xander Bogaerts (R) SS

Gary Sanchez (R) C

Nelson Cruz (R) DH

Brandon Dixon (R) 1B

Trent Grisham (L) CF

Josh Palacios (L) LF

Andrew McCutchen (R) DH

Henry Davis (R) RF

Carlos Santana (S) 1B

Jack Suwinski (L) CF

Rodolfo Castro (S) 3B

Ji Hwan Bae (L) 2B

Nick Gonzales (R) SS

Austin Hedges (R) C

Batting Average:  Alfonso Rivas (.286)

Hits:  Juan Soto (73)

Home Runs:  Fernando Tatis (15)

RBI:  Juan Soto (41)

Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (14)

Wins:  Michael Wacha (7)

Saves:  Josh Hader (18)

ERA:  Tom Cosgrove (0.53)

Batting Average:  Drew Maggi (.333)

Hits:  Ke'Bryan Hayes (73)

Home Runs:  Jack Suwinski (16)

RBI:  Bryan Reynolds (40)

Stolen Bases:  Ji Hwan Bae (20)

Wins:  Mitch Keller (8)

Saves:  David Bednar (15)

ERA:  David Bednar (1.50)

Managers:

San Diego Padres: Bob Melvin (2nd season)

Pittsburgh Pirates: Derek Shelton (4th season)