San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Preview and Odds - 06/27/2023

by Rod Pearson

Monday, Jun 26, 2023
Game Time: 7:05 pm ET, Tuesday, June 27, 2023
Venue:  PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Where to Watch:  Sportsnet PT


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -195, Pirates +165; Over/Under:  9 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -195, Pirates +165; Over/Under:  9 runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -195, Pirates +165; Over/Under:  9 runs

Season Record

San Diego Padres:  37-41 (4th place, NL West)
Pittsburgh Pirates:  35-42 (4th place, NL Central)

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Recent Form
San Diego Padres:  4-6 last 10
Pittsburgh Pirates:  1-9 last 10



San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview and Analysis


The Padres are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak and lost their 3-game series against the Washington Nationals 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 37-41 record overall and have a road record of 17-19. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Pirates on Tuesday and they have Monday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 16th in the MLB with a .720 OPS. Seth Lugo was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Yu Darvish is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 5-6 with a 4.84 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 ER, 0 HR, and 2 BB with 6 Ks on 7 hits through 6 IP against the San Francisco Giants.

The Pirates are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak and lost their 4-game series against the Miami Marlins 3-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 35-42 record overall and have a home record of 18-19. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Tuesday and they have Monday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 23rd in the MLB with a .700 OPS. Johan Oviedo was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Rich Hill is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 6-7 with a 4.34 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 0 homers, and 2 BB with 4 strikeouts on 4 hits through 5.2 innings played against the Chicago Cubs.


Padres vs Pirates Prediction

The current betting odds have the Pirates listed as a big underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Pirates got off to a really hot start this season but now they have hit a big slump dropping under .500 once again and are now in 4th place of their division. Their offense has been really bad during this slump but the Padres haven't been any better on offense this season and they also have a losing record just like the Pirates do, also in 4th place of their division too. The Padres enter this game as a big favorite but their offense has been just as bad as the Pirates lately and the Padres pitching hasn't been good either. Their bullpen has been terrible lately and they have Darvish on the mound here who hasn't been pitching well at all this season. He gave up 4 runs in his last start and that has been a common theme for him in his starts this season. The Pirates are going with Hill on the mound here but he hasn't been terrible in his starts lately and he will have a better outing at home here. The Pirates may be in a big slump right now but the Padres haven't been pitching well at all lately and that could be the spark this Pirates offense needs to get rolling again at home here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Pirates to win this game.

Padres Pirates Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, June 27, 2023 (7:05 pm ET start time) is Pirates 6 Padres 4.
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MLB Betting Trends


San Diego Padres: 9-5 (+4.2 units) on the moneyline on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5. 8-2 (+5.2 units) on the moneyline after a loss by 4 runs or more. 17-4 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5. 10-3 UNDER against NL Central opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates: 2-12 (-11 units) on the moneyline after scoring 3 runs or less 3 straight games. 23-31 (-7 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 12-6 UNDER after batting .200 or worse over a 5 game span. 10-4 UNDER as an underdog of +150 or more. 

Key Injuries


San Diego Padres:  M. Wacha (SP) Ques Fri - Shoulder. R. Suarez (SP) Mid July - Arm. T. Cosgrove (RP) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. L. Campusano (C) Late July - Thumb. D. Pomeranz (RP) Out indefinitely - Forearm. E. Rosario (3B) Mid July - Ankle.

Pittsburgh Pirates:  V. Velasquez (SP) out for season - Elbow. B. Reynolds (CF) Out indefinitely - Back. W. Crowe (SP) Early July - Shoulder. J. Hernandez (RP) Out indefinitely - Calf. R. Zastryzny (RP) Out indefinitely - Forearm. C. Holderman (RP) Out indefinitely - Wrist. J. Choi (1B) Early July - Achilles. J. Brubaker (SP) out for season - Elbow. O. Cruz (SS) Mid Aug - Ankle. J. Garcia (RP) Out indefinitely - Bicep. M. Kranick (SP) Late Aug - Elbow.


Notable Quotes


“It was surreal, and it was amazing. All in all, it was pretty nerve-racking. But when you get out there, it's the same game.” - Matt Waldron on making his MLB debut in their loss against the Nationals on Saturday.


“We’re getting elite starting pitching right now, we just have to figure out a way to score runs. We have to figure it out because we’re not doing anything offensively, especially early in games.” - Derek Shelton after his team’s loss against the Marlins in their game on Sunday.


Starting Lineups


San Diego Padres
Ha-Seong Kim (R) 2B
Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF
Juan Soto (L) LF
Manny Machado (R) 3B
Xander Bogaerts (R) SS
Jake Cronenworth (L) 1B
Nelson Cruz (R) DH
Austin Nola (R) C
Trent Grisham (L) CF

Pittsburgh Pirates
Ji Hwan Bae (L) 2B
Andrew McCutchen (R) DH
Josh Palacios (L) LF
Carlos Santana (S) 1B
Henry Davis (R) RF
Jack Suwinski (L) CF
Tucupita Marcano (L) SS
Rodolfo Castro (S) 3B
Austin Hedges (R) C

Statistical Leaders


San Diego Padres
Batting Average:  Fernando Tatis (.286)
Hits:  Juan Soto (73)
Home Runs:  Fernando Tatis (15)
RBI:  Juan Soto (41)
Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (14)
Wins:  Michael Wacha (7)
Saves:  Josh Hader (18)
ERA:  Adrian Morejon (0.00)

Pittsburgh Pirates
Batting Average:  Drew Maggi (.333)
Hits:  Ke'Bryan Hayes (73)
Home Runs:  Jack Suwinski (15)
RBI:  Bryan Reynolds (40)
Stolen Bases:  Ji Hwan Bae (20)
Wins:  Mitch Keller (8)
Saves:  David Bednar (15)
ERA:  David Bednar (1.50)

Managers:
San Diego Padres: Bob Melvin (2nd season)
Pittsburgh Pirates: Derek Shelton (4th season)


Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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