by Rod Pearson
Monday, Jun 17, 2024
Game Time: 6:40 pm ET, Tuesday, June 18, 2024
Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Where to Watch: NBCS-PH
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Padres +130, Phillies -155; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Padres +130, Phillies -155; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Padres +130, Phillies -155; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
Season Record
San Diego Padres: 37-38 (2nd place, NL West)
Philadelphia Phillies: 47-24 (1st place, NL East)
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Recent Form
San Diego Padres: 5-5 last 10
Philadelphia Phillies: 5-5 last 10
San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview and Analysis
The Padres are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 3-game series against the New York Mets 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 37-38 record overall and have a road record of 19-17. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Phillies on Tuesday with the series opener of this series still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .726 OPS. Randy Vásquez is their starting pitcher on Monday while Michael King is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 5-4 with a 3.58 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 ER, 0 HR, and 2 BB with 12 Ks on 4 hits through 5 IP against the Oakland Athletics.
The Phillies are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Baltimore Orioles 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 47-24 record overall and have a home record of 27-10. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Tuesday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 5th in the MLB with a .735 OPS. Cristopher Sánchez is their starting pitcher on Monday while Aaron Nola is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 8-3 with a 3.48 ERA this season. His team won 5 of their last 6 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 8 earned runs, 1 homer, and 2 BB with 2 strikeouts on 11 hits through 3.2 innings played against the Boston Red Sox.
Padres vs Phillies Prediction
The current betting odds have the Phillies listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Phillies have looked great in their games this season with their 47-24 record overall which leads the NL East with one of the best records in the entire MLB. They are coming off a series loss to the Orioles over the weekend, but they have looked so good in their own ballpark this year with their 27-10 home record. Meanwhile, the Padres have looked a lot better in their road games this season than they have in their home games, going 19-17 in their road games, but they still haven't looked great in their games this season with their 37-38 record overall. They just got swept by the Mets in their last series too so they haven't looked good in their games lately and the Phillies can use this series at home to bounce back. They have Nola on the mound in this game and he will be looking to bounce back in a big way here. He has been good this season with his 8-3 record and his 3.48 ERA, but he is coming off a really bad start which he gave up 8 earned runs in. Nola is still a solid starter though and he will be looking to bounce back with a better performance at home, especially since the Phillies have won 5 of their last 6 games with him starting. King is up for the Padres here and he hasn't been bad with his 5-4 record and his 3.58 ERA, but the Phillies still have the better offense to lean on here and the Padres have been in a slump lately. This is a good game for the Phillies and Nola to bounce back in. The best way to place a bet here is on the Phillies to win this game.
Padres Phillies Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, June 18, 2024 (6:40 pm ET start time) is Phillies 7 Padres 2.
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MLB Betting Trends
San Diego Padres: 37-38 (-7.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 37-41 (-6 units) on the moneyline on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5. 43-44 (-12.1 units) on the moneyline against NL East opponents. 23-15 OVER as a road underdog of +125 to +175. 29-19 OVER against right-handed starters.
Philadelphia Phillies: 47-24 (+14.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 27-10 (+13 units) on the moneyline in home games. 41-17 (+14.6 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. AARON NOLA is 10-4 OVER at home with a money line of -100 to -150, 23-10 OVER when the total is 8.5 to 10, and 11-6 OVER against NL West opponents.
Key Injuries
San Diego Padres: Y. Darvish (SP) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. J. Musgrove (SP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. L. Patino (SP) out for season - Elbow. X. Bogaerts (2B) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. G. Otto (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder.
Philadelphia Phillies: J. Realmuto (C) Out indefinitely - Knee. M. Rucker (RP) Out indefinitely - Finger. K. Clemens (2B) Out indefinitely - Back. D. Covey (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. T. Turner (SS) Late June - Leg. Y. Marte (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. L. Ortiz (RP) Out indefinitely - Ankle.
Notable Quotes
“We’ve got to start to marry our hitting and our pitching more consistently.” - Mike Shildt after his team’s loss against the Mets in their game on Sunday.
“Just command really. All four of those (home run) pitches were right down the middle of the plate. And up a little bit. It's just one of those days.” - Rob Thomson after his team’s loss against the Orioles in their game on Sunday.
Starting Lineups
San Diego Padres
Luis Arraez (L) 1B
Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF
Jurickson Profar (S) DH
Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B
Manny Machado (R) 3B
Jackson Merrill (L) CF
David Peralta (L) LF
Ha-Seong Kim (R) SS
Luis Campusano (R) C
Philadelphia Phillies
Kyle Schwarber (L) DH
Nick Castellanos (R) RF
Bryce Harper (L) 1B
Alec Bohm (R) 3B
Bryson Stott (L) 2B
Edmundo Sosa (R) SS
Brandon Marsh (L) CF
David Dahl (L) LF
Garrett Stubbs (L) C
Statistical Leaders
San Diego Padres
Batting Average: Luis Arraez (.348)
Hits: Jurickson Profar (80)
Home Runs: Fernando Tatis (13)
RBI: Jurickson Profar (46)
Stolen Bases: Ha-Seong Kim (14)
Wins: Dylan Cease (6)
Saves: Robert Suarez (17)
ERA: Logan Gillaspie (0.00)
Philadelphia Phillies
Batting Average: Trea Turner (.343)
Hits: Alec Bohm (80)
Home Runs: Bryce Harper (15)
RBI: Alec Bohm (57)
Stolen Bases: Bryson Stott (18)
Wins: Ranger Suárez (10)
Saves: José Alvarado (12)
ERA: Jeff Hoffman (0.89)
Managers:
San Diego Padres: Mike Shildt (1st season)
Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (3rd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
