San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Game Prediction, Odds and Preview - 10/21/2022

Game Time: 7:35 pm ET, Friday, October 21th, 2022

Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Where to Watch:  FS1, FOX Deportes

DraftKings: Moneyline:   Padres -110, Phillies -110; O/U 7.5

PointsBet:  Moneyline: Padres -108, Phillies -108; O/U 7.5

Caesars: Moneyline: Padres -115, Phillies -105; O/U 7.5

 

Padres: 89-73, 1-1 NLCS

Phillies: 87-75, 1-1 NLCS

NLCS Game 3 will go off Friday night!  The Padres and the Phillies are unlikely combatants for the prize of a World Series appearance for the National League but that is what we have.  Two teams that fell just below the cream of the crop in the regular season…. Yet two teams that got hot at exactly the right against exactly the right opponents.  The Padres did it in Game 2 winning a “must have” home game 8-5.  The Padres tied the series 1-1 which is key… They did not want to go to Philadelphia down 2-0…. With three games to play that would have been near impossible a deficit to make up.  Now the series switches into high gear.  If either team gets the next three in Philly it will all be over… but any type of split and we will see these two again in the cool night air of San Diego.

The San Diego Padres spent the first four inning in Game 2 behind the 8-ball.  The Phillies scored 4 runs in the second and the Padres scored 2 runs in the second.  It stayed that way for innings 3 and 4… Then the Padres had a BIG 5th inning… maybe the biggest inning they’ve played all year!  The Padres big fifth inning started with a hit and run single by Padres catcher Austin Nola off of his own brother, Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola!  The hit and run single scored Ha-Seong Kim all the way from first base (that kid is fast)... The Phillies smelled something brewing and replaced Aaron Nola with left-handed reliever Brad Hand… That turned out to be a mistake.  Hand allowed 2 more hits and three more runs after hitting the first batter with a pitch.  The damage was done the Padres had a 7-4 lead. They netted and insurance run in the 7th and gave up just 1 more run in the 8th…. And the Padres had the win in front of their raucous home crowd.

The Philadelphia Phillies really really thought they were going home with a 2-0 lead in the series.  They took a 4-0 lead and you could feel the palpable joy in the dugout…. Even after giving up 2 runs in the 2nd inning they felt they had weathered the storm… that feeling built and built as the Padres went scoreless over the next two innings… but when the deluge happened in the 5th… when the Padres piled on.  The Phillies noticeably shut down.  The game was lost.  They walked through the rest and finished a night netting 5 runs on 8 hits… but giving up 8 runs on 13 hits.  The old saying is true “Don’t give up 13 hits in the NLCS!”  I don’t know who exact;ly said it, but truer words were never spoken. The Phillies get 3 home games in a row… and should be pretty happy that even though they lost Game 2… They surely got Game 1… and a postseason ROAD SPLIT is a good thing.

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SDP: 95-76, -381 ML, 80-85-6, 48-38 on the road.  They are a rare team that performed identically on the road as at home.

PHI: 93-77, 586 ML, 85-78-7, 49-34 in home games.  They are the regular team, better at home than the road.

The San Diego Padres finished the season 13th in runs scored with 4.35 per game, 16th in batting average with .241, and 8th in OBP with .318.

The Philadelphia Phillies finished the season 7th in scoring with 4.61 runs per game, 8th in batting average with .253, and 11th in OBP with .317.

The Padres pitchers finished the season 11th in ERA with 3.81, 9th in WHIP, and their fielders finished 8th in errors with 76 on the season.  

The Phillies pitchers finished the season 18th in ERA, 14th in WHIP, and their fielders finished 3rd in errors with only 69 on the season.

Our prediction for Friday, October 21st is…   Phillies 6 - Padres 3

The Phillies will get a boost from the home crowd and from the starting pitching matchup.  They will also be recovering from the sting of Brad Hand dropping the last game.  It will be the Phillies start to finish.  Bet on the Phillies on the ML.

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The Padres are 64-49 (-15.5 UNITS) as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.

The Padres are 34-22 (+14.3 UNITS) on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5.

The Phillies are 12-5 (+6.7 UNITS) at home when the total is 7 to 7.5.

Padres: RHP Joe Musgrove, 10-7, 2.93 ERA, 184 strikeouts in 181 innings pitched. 1.08 WHIP.  Joe has rarely won consecutive games in his career let alone this season… and he won his last start.

Phillies: LHP Ranger Suarez, 10-7, 3.65 ERA, 129 strikeouts in 155 innings pitched.  1.33 WHIP.  Ranger will give it over to a determined bullpen.  He is good for the top four innings, he has shown it all season… After that he will need a solid bullpen and run support.

Padres: LF Jurickson Profar, RF Juan Soto, 3B Manny Machado, DH Josh Bell, 2B Jake Cronenworth, 1B Will Myers, SS Ha-Seong Kim, CF Trent Grisham, C Austin Nola 

Castellanos, 3B Alex Bohm, SS Bryson Stott, Phillies: LF Kyle Schwarber, 1B Rhys Hoskins, C JT Realmuto, DH Bryce Harper, RF Nick 2B Jean Segura, CF Brandon Marsh

Padres: Bob “um ma ma” Melvin

Phillies: Rob “how bout them ears” Thompson

Sunny.  66*, Humidity 45%, wind 6 mph.