by Rod Pearson
Friday, May 26, 2023
Game Time: 1:05 pm ET, Saturday, May 27, 2023
Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Where to Watch: MLB Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Padres +130, Yankees -150; Over/Under: 9 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Padres +130, Yankees -150; Over/Under: 9 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Padres +130, Yankees -150; Over/Under: 9 runs
Season Record
San Diego Padres: 23-27 (4th place, NL West)
New York Yankees: 30-22 (3rd place, AL East)
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Recent Form
San Diego Padres: 4-6 last 10
New York Yankees: 7-3 last 10
San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees Preview and Analysis
The Padres are entering this game off of a win in their last game after winning their 3-game series against the Washington Nationals 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 23-27 record overall and have a road record of 11-12. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Yankees on Saturday with the series opener of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 21st in the MLB with a .703 OPS. Joe Musgrove is their starting pitcher on Friday while Michael Wacha is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 5-1 with a 3.58 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 4 Ks on 5 hits through 6 IP against the Boston Red Sox.
The Yankees are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak after losing their 3-game series against the Baltimore Orioles 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 30-22 record overall and have a home record of 17-12. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the San Diego Padres on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 13th in the MLB with a .727 OPS. Rookie pitcher Randy Vásquez is their starting pitcher on Friday while Luis Severino is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 0-0 with a 1.93 ERA this season. His team won their only game this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 0 homers, and 1 BB with 5 strikeouts on 4 hits through 4.2 innings played against the Cincinnati Reds.
Padres vs Yankees Prediction
The current betting odds have the Padres listed as an underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Padres haven't been good this season as they are struggling to get over .500 with their bad start to the season while the Yankees have been playing really well over the last week and are starting to get hot. The Padres are going to be desperate to make something happen here as they need to start turning around their season already and they actually have a favorable pitching matchup in this game. Severino is up for the Yankees and he has been good this year but he also hasn't pitched much and has missed a lot of time over the last 2 seasons with injuries. He is still trying to get back in a good groove this year while the Padres are starting Wacha and he has quietly been one of their best starters all season. He is not shutting teams down completely but he isn't giving up a ton of runs in his starts either and already has 5 wins which leads the starters this season. He also did the same thing last season on the Red Sox even though he had to battle injuries all year, he was still one of the Red Sox best starters when he could go. Wacha will continue to pitch well here having seen the Yankees a lot last season and he will give the Padres a good chance to steal a win after the Yankees just lost 2 against the Orioles in their last series. The best way to place a bet here is on the Padres to win this game.
Padres Yankees Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Saturday, May 27, 2023 (1:05 pm ET start time) is Padres 3 Yankees 2.
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MLB Betting Trends
San Diego Padres: 23-27 (-13 units) on the moneyline in all games. 13-17 (-9.4 units) on the moneyline when the total is 8.5 to 10. 32-16 UNDER in all games. 13-3 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5.
New York Yankees: 30-22 (+5.6 units) on the moneyline in all games. 18-8 (+6.3 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -125 to -175. 13-7 UNDER as a home favorite of -125 to -175. LUIS SEVERINO is 6-1 UNDER when the money line is -100 to -150.
Key Injuries
San Diego Padres: H. Kim (2B) Doub Fri - Knee. A. Morejon (SP) Early June - Elbow. M. Machado (3B) Early June - Hand. S. Lugo (RP) Out indefinitely - Calf. D. Pomeranz (RP) Out indefinitely - Forearm. L. Campusano (C) Early July - Thumb. R. Suarez (SP) Out indefinitely - Arm. N. Crismatt (RP) Out indefinitely - Hip. E. Rosario (2B) Mid July - Ankle.
New York Yankees: D. German (SP) Elig Mon - Suspension. C. Rodon (SP) Late June - Elbow. T. Kahnle (RP) Early June - Bicep. J. Donaldson (3B) Early June - Hamstring. I. Hamilton (RP) Mid June - Groin. J. Trevino (C) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. F. Montas (SP) Early July - Shoulder. J. Loaisiga (RP) Early Sept - Elbow. L. Trivino (RP) out for season - Elbow. G. Stanton (RF) Mid June - Hamstring. L. Gil (RP) Mid July - Elbow. S. Effross (RP) out for season - Elbow.
Notable Quotes
“You feel good when he’s at the plate right now. I’ve said often he’s not afraid of any situation. I’ve seen him many times over on the other side. Right now he’s swinging a hot bat for us and came up at the right time.” - Bob Melvin after his team’s win against the Nationals in their game on Thursday.
“That’s something we take a lot of pride in, our defense, and certainly that’s part of it. So we’ve got to handle those plays. But it happens and we’ll continue to work at it.” - Aaron Boone after his team’s loss against the Orioles in their game on Thursday.
Starting Lineups
San Diego Padres
Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF
Jake Cronenworth (L) 1B
Juan Soto (L) LF
Xander Bogaerts (R) SS
Matt Carpenter (L) DH
Rougned Odor (L) 2B
Ha-Seong Kim (R) 3B
Trent Grisham (L) CF
Brett Sullivan (L) C
New York Yankees
Gleyber Torres (R) 2B
Aaron Judge (R) RF
Anthony Rizzo (L) 1B
Harrison Bader (R) CF
Willie Calhoun (L) DH
Anthony Volpe (R) SS
Oswaldo Cabrera (S) 3B
Ben Rortvedt (L) C
Greg Allen (S) LF
Statistical Leaders
San Diego Padres
Batting Average: Juan Soto (.262)
Hits: Xander Bogaerts (47)
Home Runs: Juan Soto (9)
RBI: Juan Soto (22)
Stolen Bases: Ha-Seong Kim (6)
Wins: Michael Wacha (5)
Saves: Josh Hader (13)
ERA: Tom Cosgrove (0.00)
New York Yankees
Batting Average: Ben Rortvedt (.400)
Hits: Anthony Rizzo (58)
Home Runs: Aaron Judge (14)
RBI: Aaron Judge (33)
Stolen Bases: Anthony Volpe (13)
Wins: Gerrit Cole (5)
Saves: Clay Holmes (5)
ERA: Ian Hamilton (1.23)
Managers:
San Diego Padres: Bob Melvin (2nd season)
New York Yankees: Aaron Boone (6th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
