San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/25/2026

Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Saturday, July 25, 2026

Venue:  LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL

Where to Watch:  MLB TV, FS1

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +113, Marlins -136; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +115, Marlins -135; Over/Under:  9 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +115, Marlins -135; Over/Under:  9 runs

San Diego Padres:  50-53 (3rd place, NL West)

Miami Marlins:  52-51 (3rd place, NL East)

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San Diego Padres:  4-6 last 10

Miami Marlins:  1-9 last 10

The Padres are entering this series off a loss and lost their 4-game series against the Atlanta Braves 3-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 50-53 record overall and have a road record of 23-29. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Marlins on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 26th in the MLB with a .690 OPS. Germán Márquez is their starting pitcher on Friday while JP Sears is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 2-3 with a 4.38 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 0 BB with 3 SO on 3 hits through 5 IP against the Atlanta Braves.

The Marlins are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 3-game series against the Houston Astros 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 52-51 record overall and have a home record of 31-20. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 10th in the MLB with a .732 OPS. Ryan Gusto is their starting pitcher on Friday while Eury Pérez is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 5-7 with a 3.53 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 3 walks with 9 strikeouts on 1 hit through 6 innings pitched against the Milwaukee Brewers.

The current betting odds have the Marlins listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Marlins have looked good in their games this season with their 52-51 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL East. They have looked great in their own ballpark though with their 31-20 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Padres haven't looked great in their games this season with their 50-53 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL West. They haven't been a great road team either with their 23-29 road record this year. The Padres are also 4-6 in their last 10 games and haven't looked great lately with one of the worst offenses in the league this season. The Marlins are 1-9 in their last 10 games and have looked terrible lately, but they have looked like a different team in their home games this season and they are going to be desperate to bounce back with the better pitching matchup here. Perez is on the mound for the Marlins in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 5-7 with a 3.53 ERA and he hasn't been giving up many runs lately. The team has had some trouble as of late, losing 2 games in a row now with him starting, but he gave up no runs in his last start and that has been a common theme for him. The Padres are going with Sears in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 2-3 with a 4.38 ERA and the team hasn't had a ton of success with him. They have lost 2 games in a row now with him starting and even though he only gave up 1 earned run in his last start, that hasn't been a common theme for him. The Marlins are going to be desperate to bounce back in this series at home and they have the stronger offense this season, so look for them to take advantage of this pitching matchup. The best way to place a bet here is on the Marlins to win this game. 

Padres Marlins Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, July 25, 2026 (4:10 pm ET start time) is Marlins 5 Padres 1.

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San Diego Padres: 46-40 (+5.8 units) on the moneyline against NL East opponents. 239-199 (+18.9 units) on the moneyline in all games. 112-109 (+9.6 units) on the moneyline in road games. 10-4 UNDER on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5.

Miami Marlins: 99-114 (-7.6 units) on the moneyline in home games. 45-42 (-10 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 73-95 (-17.9 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a losing record. 29-22 UNDER in home games.

San Diego Padres:  M. Andujar (DH) Ten Day IL - Wrist. S. Taylor (LF) Ten Day IL - Oblique. J. Adam (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. D. Morgan (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Knee. L. Giolito (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. J. Estrada (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Knee. R. Laureano (LF) Sixty Day IL - Hip. N. Pivetta (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Hoeing (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Miami Marlins:  M. Meyer (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Neck. W. Kempner (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. O. Caissie (RF) Ten Day IL - Calf. A. Bender (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shin. J. Ekness (RP) Sixty Day IL - Calf. A. Nardi (RP) Sixty Day IL - Ribs. R. Snelling (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Mazur (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Henriquez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“It was one of those scenarios where we needed Griff to go more innings, if possible. You’re weighing: Is one more inning worth one [less favorable] matchup. Once he got two outs, I kind of stuck with Griff there to see if he could get through that inning and maybe possibly handle a few more. Ultimately, it didn’t work out.” - Craig Stammen after his team’s loss against the Braves in their game on Thursday.

“He was fantastic. I thought he was in control most of the night. He had a very efficient pitch count. He really moved things along well after the first couple of innings. I hate how things went down there, but I thought he threw the ball fantastic.” - Clayton McCullough after his team’s loss against the Astros in their game on Wednesday.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF

Luis Rengifo (S) LF

Manny Machado (R) 3B

Ty France (R) 1B

Xander Bogaerts (R) SS

Gavin Sheets (L) DH

Freddy Fermin (R) C

Jase Bowen (R) CF

Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B

Otto Lopez (R) SS

Kyle Stowers (L) 1B

Heriberto Hernández (R) LF

Xavier Edwards (S) 2B

Liam Hicks (L) DH

Griffin Conine (L) RF

Javier Sanoja (R) 3B

Joe Mack (L) C

Esteury Ruiz (R) CF

Batting Average:  Luis Rengifo (.409)

Hits:  Fernando Tatis (114)

Home Runs:  Manny Machado (22)

RBI:  Manny Machado (59)

Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (25)

Wins:  Adrian Morejon (7)

Saves:  Mason Miller (25)

ERA:  Mason Miller (0.86)

Batting Average:  Otto Lopez (.332)

Hits:  Otto Lopez (131)

Home Runs:  Liam Hicks (14)

RBI:  Liam Hicks (60)

Stolen Bases:  Esteury Ruiz (22)

Wins:  Sandy Alcantara (10)

Saves:  Pete Fairbanks (13)

ERA:  Josh Ekness (1.69)

Managers:

San Diego Padres: Craig Stammen (1st season)

Miami Marlins: Clayton McCullough (2nd season)