by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Jul 23, 2026
Game Time: 7:10 pm ET, Friday, July 24, 2026
Venue: LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL
Where to Watch: MLB TV
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Padres +113, Marlins -136; Over/Under: 9 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Padres +115, Marlins -135; Over/Under: 9 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Padres +115, Marlins -135; Over/Under: 9 runs
Season Record
San Diego Padres: 50-52 (3rd place, NL West)
Miami Marlins: 52-51 (3rd place, NL East)
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Recent Form
San Diego Padres: 4-6 last 10
Miami Marlins: 1-9 last 10
San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Preview and Analysis
The Padres are entering this series off a loss and lost their 4-game series against the Atlanta Braves 3-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 50-52 record overall and have a road record of 23-28. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Marlins on Friday. Their offense ranks 27th in the MLB with a .689 OPS. Kyle Hart was their starting pitcher on Thursday while Germán Márquez is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 4-2 with a 5.24 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 2 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 2 SO on 5 hits through 3 IP against the Kansas City Royals.
The Marlins are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 3-game series against the Houston Astros 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 52-51 record overall and have a home record of 31-20. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 11th in the MLB with a .732 OPS. Sandy Alcántara was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Ryan Gusto is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 0-2 with a 4.70 ERA this season. His team lost their last 4 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 0 walks with 2 strikeouts on 0 hits through 2 innings pitched against the Houston Astros.
Padres vs Marlins Prediction
The current betting odds have the Marlins listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Marlins have looked good in their games this season with their 52-51 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL East. They have looked great in their own ballpark though with their 31-20 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Padres haven't looked great in their games this season with their 50-52 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL West. They haven't been a great road team either with their 23-28 road record this year. The Marlins are 1-9 in their last 10 games and they have looked terrible lately, getting swept by the Astros in their last series, but the Padres are only 4-6 in their last 10 games and haven't looked great either. The Marlins have looked like a completely different team at home this season though and they will be looking to bounce back in this series. They have been dealing with some injuries lately and won't have the best option starting, going with more of a bullpen game, but their bullpen hasn't been terrible this season. The Marlins also have a big edge here with their offense, the Padres having one of the worst offenses in the league. The Padres are going with Marquez in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 4-2 with a 5.24 ERA and he has been giving up quite a few runs in his few starts. The team has been having success lately, winning 3 games in a row now with him starting, and he only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start too, but that hasn't been a common theme for him and the Marlins have the bats to get to him here. The Marlins have the stronger offense and that will give them the edge they need in this desperate situation. The best way to place a bet here is on the Marlins to win this game.
Padres Marlins Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 24, 2026 (7:10 pm ET start time) is Marlins 7 Padres 4.
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MLB Betting Trends
San Diego Padres: 46-39 (+6.8 units) on the moneyline against NL East opponents. 239-198 (+19.9 units) on the moneyline in all games. 112-108 (+10.6 units) on the moneyline in road games. 12-6 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start.
Miami Marlins: 99-114 (-7.6 units) on the moneyline in home games. 83-94 (-6.2 units) on the moneyline when the money line is +125 to -125. 73-95 (-17.9 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a losing record. 29-22 UNDER in home games.
Key Injuries
San Diego Padres: M. Andujar (DH) Ten Day IL - Wrist. S. Taylor (LF) Ten Day IL - Oblique. J. Adam (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. D. Morgan (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Knee. L. Giolito (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. J. Estrada (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Knee. R. Laureano (LF) Sixty Day IL - Hip. N. Pivetta (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Hoeing (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
Miami Marlins: M. Meyer (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Neck. W. Kempner (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. J. King (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Ankle. O. Caissie (RF) Ten Day IL - Calf. A. Bender (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shin. J. Ekness (RP) Sixty Day IL - Calf. A. Nardi (RP) Sixty Day IL - Ribs. R. Snelling (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Mazur (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Henriquez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
Notable Quotes
“We just had one bad inning on the mound in the eighth that just didn’t go our way. Wandy wasn’t very sharp. And then a bunch of unlucky hits against Randy, is what I’ll say there.” - Craig Stammen after his team’s loss against the Braves in their game on Wednesday.
“He was fantastic. I thought he was in control most of the night. He had a very efficient pitch count. He really moved things along well after the first couple of innings. I hate how things went down there, but I thought he threw the ball fantastic.” - Clayton McCullough after his team’s loss against the Astros in their game on Wednesday.
Starting Lineups
San Diego Padres
Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF
Luis Rengifo (S) LF
Manny Machado (R) 3B
Ty France (R) 1B
Xander Bogaerts (R) SS
Gavin Sheets (L) DH
Freddy Fermin (R) C
Jase Bowen (R) CF
Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B
Miami Marlins
Otto Lopez (R) SS
Kyle Stowers (L) 1B
Heriberto Hernández (R) LF
Xavier Edwards (S) 2B
Liam Hicks (L) DH
Griffin Conine (L) RF
Javier Sanoja (R) 3B
Joe Mack (L) C
Esteury Ruiz (R) CF
Statistical Leaders
San Diego Padres
Batting Average: Luis Rengifo (.421)
Hits: Fernando Tatis (113)
Home Runs: Manny Machado (22)
RBI: Manny Machado (59)
Stolen Bases: Fernando Tatis (25)
Wins: Adrian Morejon (7)
Saves: Mason Miller (25)
ERA: Mason Miller (0.86)
Miami Marlins
Batting Average: Otto Lopez (.332)
Hits: Otto Lopez (131)
Home Runs: Liam Hicks (14)
RBI: Liam Hicks (60)
Stolen Bases: Esteury Ruiz (22)
Wins: Sandy Alcantara (10)
Saves: Pete Fairbanks (13)
ERA: Josh Ekness (1.69)
Managers:
San Diego Padres: Craig Stammen (1st season)
Miami Marlins: Clayton McCullough (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
