San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction, Preview and Odds - 09/28/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 10:10 pm ET, Tuesday, September 28, 2021
Venue:  Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA 
Where to Watch:  ESPN


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +160, Dodgers -190; Over/Under:  8 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +165, Dodgers -185; Over/Under:  8 runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +165, Dodgers -200; Over/Under:  8 runs

Season Record

San Diego Padres:  78-78 (3rd place, NL West)
Los Angeles Dodgers:  100-56 (2nd place, NL West)
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San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
San Diego Padres:  2-8 last 10
Los Angeles Dodgers:  7-3 last 10

San Diego Padres Analysis

The Padres are coming into this game after losing in their series finale to the Atlanta Braves on Sunday. They were swept by the Braves in that three-game series and are now on a 3 game losing streak as a result. They have also lost 8 of their last 9 games after losing their series against the San Francisco Giants and getting swept by the St. Louis Cardinals before that as well. They have Monday off as a rest day so this will be the series opener on Tuesday of a three-game series between them and the Dodgers. Joe Musgrove was given the nod in Sunday's game while Yu Darvish will be the starting pitcher on the mound for this game on Tuesday. He is 8-10 with a 4.21 ERA this season. His team has lost 5 of their last 7 games that he was the starter in. In his last start, he allowed 4 ER, 1 being a HR, and 3 BB with 7 Ks on 3 hits through 5.1 IP against the Giants last Thursday. He has seen the Dodgers lineup 4 times this season and he is 2-2 against them this year but it was the last time he faced them that he was credited with a loss and allowed 4 runs scored against him in the process. They have scored 11 runs in their last 3 games averaging a little under 4 runs scored per game in that span and they have allowed their opponents to score 18 runs against them in that same span allowing 8 runs per game.

Los Angeles Dodgers Analysis

The Dodgers are coming into this matchup after winning their series finale against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday. They took 2 out of 3 of those games against the D-backs and have now won 3 of their last 4 games. They have Monday off as a rest day as well so this will be the first game of their series with the Padres on Tuesday. Julio Urias was the starter in Sunday's game while Walker Buehler will be throwing the first pitch in this game on Tuesday. He is 14-4 with a 2.58 ERA this season and he has the 2nd most wins on his team for a starting pitcher in the rotation this year. He has been credited with a loss in his last start where there was a decision and his team has actually lost 3 of their last 4 games with him as the starter. In his last start, he allowed 5 ER, 1 being a homer, and 0 BB with 2 strikeouts on 7 hits through 3.2 innings of work against the Colorado Rockies last Wed. He has seen the Padres lineup 4 times this season and he is 1-0 against them with 3 no-decisions. His team is 3-1 against them in those games he started and he has not allowed more than 2 runs against the Padres in a single start this year. Their offense has scored 9 runs in their last 3 games averaging 3 runs scored per game in that span and they have allowed their opponents to score 9 runs against them in that same span allowing 3 runs per game.


Padres vs Dodgers Prediction

The Padres have been eliminated from playoff contention and the postseason after spiraling out of the Wild Card race in these last few weeks with consistent loss after loss. The Dodgers are already in the playoffs but they sit just 2 games behind the Giants for 1st place of the NL West and they will keep playing hard in every game until the season ends as long as they still have a shot to win that division. They have the motivation to keep playing here as the Padres must feel demotivated after the losing streak they have gone on and they cannot even truly play spoiler in this series as all they can spoil is the Dodgers chances at winning the National League West division. The value in this game is to bet on the Dodgers to win on the moneyline or the runline as they will keep fighting until the end of the regular season and will need to start hitting full stride for the playoffs anyway.
Padres Dodgers Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, September 28, 2021 (10:10 pm ET start time) is Dodgers 7 Padres 3.
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MLB Betting Trends

San Diego Padres: 78-78 (-34.1 units) on the money line in all games. 33-42 (-22 units) on the money line in road games.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 100-53 (+9.4 units) on the money line in all games. 52-23 (+7.9 units) on the money line in home games.

Key Injuries

San Diego Padres:  A. Nola (C) out for season - Thumb injury. T. Wingenter (RP) Early Oct - Elbow injury. J. Ona (RF) Early Oct - Elbow injury.
Los Angeles Dodgers:  C. Bellinger (RF) Out indefinitely - Ribs injury. D. Duffy (SP) Early Oct - Hip injury. S. Alexander (RP) out for season - Shoulder injury.

Players to Watch

San Diego Padres: Adam Frazier is one player to watch in this game. He leads his team in batting average and in hits. The Padres are out of the playoffs now but look for him to keep playing well until the end of the season and finish off strong.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Trea Turner is one player to watch here. He leads his team in batting average, hits, and stolen bases. The Dodgers are still looking to win the division so look for him to get on base and get into scoring position as he can be a real threat as a baserunner.

Notable Quotes

"Obviously we fell short and that's all that matters. We're all down about it. We were expecting something that didn't happen but hey, it's part of the game. It's part of the grind." - Manny Machado on getting eliminated from playoff contention on Saturday night.
"I just tried to stay on the fastball. He put a few over the plate and I put a good swing on them." - Corey Seager on hitting 2 home runs against the D-backs on Sunday.

Starting Lineups

San Diego Padres
A. Frazier 2B
J. Cronenworth 1B
M. Machado 3B
J. Profar RF
T. Pham LF
T. Grisham CF
H. Kim SS
V. Caratini C
J. Musgrove P
Los Angeles Dodgers
M. Betts RF
C. Seager SS
T. Turner 2B
M. Muncy 1B
A. Pollock LF
G. Lux CF
C. Taylor 3B
A. Barnes C
J. Urias P

Statistical Leaders

San Diego Padres
Batting Average:  A. Frazier (.308)
Hits:  A. Frazier (172)
Home Runs:  F. Tatis Jr. (41)
RBI:  M. Machado (101)
Stolen Bases:  F. Tatis Jr. (25)
Wins:  J. Musgrove (11)
Saves:  M. Melancon (38)
ERA:  D. Pomeranz (1.75)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Batting Average:  T. Turner (.322)
Hits:  T. Turner (184)
Home Runs:  M. Muncy (35)
RBI:  M. Muncy (90)
Stolen Bases:  T. Turner (31)
Wins:  J. Urias (19)
Saves:  K. Jansen (36)
ERA:  J. Nelson (1.86)
San Diego Padres: Jayce Tingler (2nd season)
Los Angeles Dodgers: Dave Roberts (6th season)

Weather Forecast

67 degrees F partly cloudy, 71% humidity, 10% chance of rain, up to 5 mph wind speeds NE.

Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

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