Game Time:  10:10 PM ET, Friday, July 1st,  2022 

Venue: Dodgers Stadium, Los Angeles, California

Where to Watch: FS1

DraftKings: Moneyline: Padres +155, Dodgers -169; O/U 7.5

FanDuel: Moneyline:  Padres +140, Dodgers -164; O/U 7.5

PointsBet: Moneyline: 

Opening Lines: 

Padres: 46-31, 2nd place NL West

Dodgers: 46-28, 1st place NL West

Welcome to the best MLB matchup of the season so far.  The 2nd place NL West Padres will go into Dodger Stadium to take on the 1st place NL West Dodgers.  Both teams have 46 wins on the season.  The Dodgers have a few less losses because they have played a few less games.  This matchup is the decider.  Every win for either side will hang both a win on their own record and a loss on the other record.  The Game we are reviewing is Game 2 between these Titans.  Game 1 will play Thursday night and it will be the start of an avalanche for one team or the other.  Game 2 is the pivotal game however!  If in Game 2 on Friday night the winner of Game 1 wins again… we have a whole different story to confront through the rest of the summer.  If that happens… Game 3 is an afterthought.  If that doesn’t happen… Game 3 is the “real deal Freeman McNeil” (as my Grandpa would say)... Meaning it will hold all the importance. There will be a Game 4 in this series so the chance of a disappointing 2-2 finish is apparent, but no one should be betting on that.  One of these teams going 3-1 or 4-0 will redefine our baseball summer.  

The San Diego Padres are no joke.  The San Diego Padres are no one’s little brother.  They have offense and pitching fireworks.  They have won 5 of their last ten games.  Unfortunately for the Padres they ran into a Colorado Rockies team that knows how to beat NL West teams even if they don’t beat other teams.   They went 1-1 against the Arizona Diamondbacks, 1-3 against the Philadelphia Phillies, 3-0 against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and 0-1 against “the giant killers”, the Colorado Rockies.  This horrible stretch has held the Padres from overtaking the ADodgers in the NL West.  The whole league is wondering how long Manny Machado can keep the fort while Fernando Tatis Jr is on the injury shelf.  When those two are reunited we may see a sprint to the season’s finish line.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have had to put up with Freddie Freeman crying over missing the Atlanta Braves.  Freddie signed with the Dodgers in the offseason AFTER beating the Dodgers in the World Series for a $162 million dollar 5-year contract.  People in the know have intimated to me that Freddie’s agents had an offer ($150 million for 5 ) from the Braves for more than they told Freddie (all conjecture)...  and did not communicate it properly because they wanted Freddie to take the bigger offer from the Los Angeles Dodgers (which means a bigger payday for the agents).  Freddie has fired his agents but still plays for the Dodgers… because that is how signing a contract works.  The Dodger fans will now wonder forever if Freddie really wants to be in Los Angeles… or if he wants to take his slugging percentage back to the Braves?  Freddie keeps crying… Dodger fans keep dying (a little).  The Dodgers have won 6 of their last 10 games.  They went 1-2 against the Colorado Rockies, 2-1 against the Atlanta Braves (where they deposited a bunch of kleenex, Wa wa wa), 3-0 against the Cincinnati Reds, and 0-1 against the Cleveland Guardians.  The Dodgers at the moment are missing SS Mookie Betts and his hot bat. The result is not always knowing where to find the big plays and offense.  

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The Padres are 10th in scoring with 4.64 runs per game, 15th in batting average with .242, 12th in OBP with .319.

The Dodgers are 1st in scoring with 5.13 runs per game, 6th in batting average with .253, and 1st in OBP with .331.

The Padres pitching is 5th in ERA with 3.48, 5th in WHIP with 1.15, and 2nd in errors with a small 28 errors on the season.

The Dodgers pitching is 1st in ERA with .294, 2nd in WHIP with 1.08, and the fielders are 11 th in errors with 36 on the season so far.  

Our prediction for Friday July 1st is…  Dodgers 8 - Padres  4

The Dodgers will show their teeth.  They overwhelm the Padres in both hitting and pitching… that hasn’t meant much against the lowly Rockies or Phillies… but it means everything in a matchup against a good team. The heightened tension of the moment favors the Dodgers at home. Plus Manny Machado has hit the injury list.

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The Dodgers are 45-27 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.

San Diego is 6-1 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season.

Padres: SS Fernando Tatis Jr (wrist) Out ** 3B Manny Machado (ankle) Out ** 1B matt Beaty (shoulder) Out ** LF w> Meyers (knee) Out

Dodgers: 3B E. Rios (hamstring) Out ** RF Mookie Betts (Ribs) Out ** K. Pillar (shoulder) Out **  

Padres: RHP Joe Musgrove, 8-1, 2.12 ERA, 82 strikeouts in 85 innings pitched, 0.95 WHIP.  We are talking about a total stud.  A 29 year old at the height of his powers and the crux of the big wins this season.  “Moose” is his nickname…. And no one cares.

Dodgers: Mitch White, 1-1, 4.25 ERA, 30 strikeouts in 29 innings pitched.  1.15 WHIP. Mitchell is 27 years old.  He is being given this opportunity to try and win a starter job while so many starting pitchers are on the injury list for the Dodgers.

Padres: LF Jusickson Profar, C Austin Nola, 1B Jake Cronenworth, DH Luke Voit, 1B Eric Hosmer, 3B Ha-Seong Kim, CF Trent grisham, RF JOse Azocar, SS CJ Abtams.

Dodgers: SS Trea Turner, 1B Freddie Freeman, DH Will Smith, LF Chris Taylor, 3B Justin Turner, RF Trayce Thompson, 2B Hanser Alberto, CF Cody Bellinger, C Austin Barnes

Padres: Bob Melvin

Dodgers: Dave Roberts

 

Sunny.  A Fat Sunny.  83*, Humidity 48%, wind at 7 mph.  Los Angels will be pretty and manageable.  The players will sweat but the conditions will be perfect.  I imagine lots of sunflower seeds will be available for throwing.  Precipitation at 0% because it rarely rains in the Southland.