San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game Prediction, Odds and Preview - 10/12/2022

Game Time: 8:37 pm ET, Wednesday, October 12th, 2022

Venue: Dodgers Stadium, Los Angeles, California

Where to Watch: FS1 

DraftKings: Moneyline: Padres +160, Dodgers -189; 7

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  

PointsBet:  Moneyline: 

 

Padres: 89-73, 2nd place NL West / 0-1

Dodgers: 111-51, 1st place NL West / 1-0

Game 2 of this exciting (for the Dodgers) series.  The Dodgers won game 1 of the NLDS 5-3 over the Padres.  They hit the ground running with a Trea Turner home run in the 1st inning (420 feet!)  Just like in the regular season the Dodgers lineup ate Padres pitcher Mike Clevenger for breakfast.  The scored 5 runs during his 3 innings.  It’s a good thing they did too… cause they did not get a hit for the rest of the game against the bullpen.  Meanwhile the Padres trucked 3 runs and lots of tension.  Still the final matched the betting prediction I made in this very column.  My advice then was to parlay the Dodgers ATS (1.5) with the OVER.  Both hit and I am growing the moneyroll big time.  The Dodgers have a huge advantage in this series if you consider that they beat THESE Padres 14 of 19 times in the regular season this year.  That is exactly what domination looks like when playing in your own division.  Let’s check the pitching and consider another solid bet.

A National League Divisional series that will hit some very expected results.  The San Diego Padres build their roster in the hopes of someday beating the Los Angeles Dodgers. They may one day do it… but this series is not the day.  This season the Dodgers played the Padres a bunch.. Winning every single series and SWEEPING 3 of them.  The Padres thought that they had the best approach to finally doing it by bidding highest for the services of Juan Soto (The Dodgers abandoned the chase for Soto when they realized that their eventual bid for Shohei Ohtani (coming soon) will be around 50 million a year)... but the Padres landed Soto.  The idea was clear… They would pair Soto with Machado and then in August Fernando Tatis Jr would return from injury and all of a sudden they would be the 1-2-3 Dodgers destroyer.  Then Tatis Jr tested positive for banned substances… You may know this talk as steroids or performance enhancing substances.  The result is that the Dodgers come into this playoff series just as they did every Padres/Dodgers series this season… with the MUCH better line-up.  A close look at pitching will tell you that the Padres have two good guys… 3 medium guys.. And average or trash after that.  The Dodgers pitching starting rotation is 1-4 the best rotation in the MLB… The bullpen is also the best bullpen in the MLB.  This is not a close series… It could have been but a bottle of Lance Armstrong Special ruined the Padres plans.

The San Diego Padres squeaked into the postseason on just enough wins to get the Wild Card bye… now they have to face the Dodgers. They come into this matchup average at the plate and slightly above average on the mound.  They get the benefit of playing some home games.  They also get the benefit of knowing The New York Mets have been blown out of the postseason already.  They don't get the benefit of avoiding the #1 batting AND #1 pitching team in the league.  They do have one very strong spot… That is the 1-2-3 batting lineup of Jurickson Profar, Manny Machado, and Juan Soto.  That alone means the Padres could win any game at any time.  Should they win just one of these games at Dodger Stadium… they will have stollen an advantage in the series that is worth writing home about.  

The Los Angeles Dodgers won 111 games this season and only went .500 over their last 6 games. They have been toying with the pitching and toying with the lineup to make sure everyone available will be ready and rested to play.   As said already the Dodgers are #1 in batting and #1 in pitching… any thought the Padres have of a or a few wins should start with gimmicks to get around the numbers.  I’m not sure baseball even has enough gimmicks.  In this matchup the betting lines will take into fact the Dodgers propensity to score 5.23 runs per game and a team ERA that sits at 2.80… which is not only a good team ERA but would be a great big number for an inc=dividualk to ask for lots more money. The Dodgers have the advantage, it is clear.

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The San Diego Padres finished the season 13th in runs scored with 4.35 per game, 16th in batting average with .241, and 8th in OBP with .318.

The Dodgers finished the season 1st in scoring with 5.23 runs per game, 4th in batting average with .257, 1st on OBP with .333.

The Padres pitchers finished the season 11th in ERA with 3.81, 9th in WHIP, and their fielders finished 8th in errors with 76 on the season.  They will need a sudden uptick in pitching in order to even compete against the Dodgers… Not every pitcher is YU.

The Dodgers pitchers finished the season 1st in ERA with 2.80, 1st in WHIP with 1.05, and the fielders finished 13th in errors with 83 on the season. The problem with the errors is of course Cody Bellinger… a guy who has dropped (in just two seasons) from MVP to terrible hitter.  He is a good fielder, but the Dodgers constantly have to protect him from the lineup… That has led to some crazy substitutions all over the field.  The Dodgers are only a couple months from installing Trayce Thompson to start next season in Cody’s position permanently.  Cody will have to find his strike or forever remember the Glory Days (am i right Dabblers?).

Our prediction for Wednesday, October 12th is…  Dodgers 7 - Padres 3

The bet is yet again for the Dodgers.  They will have a huge hitting night as Yesterday’s win came without much action from Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman.  These guys will go off… it is stamped and locked.    So the right way to bet this is 3 separate bets for the Dodgers… ML, ATS, and OVER.  

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The Dodgers are 51-16 after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs this season.

Clayton Kershaw is 24-9 when starting against San Diego for his career.

The Dodgers are 36-16 over San Diego over the last 3 seasons.

Padres: RHP Yu Darvish, 16-8, 3.10 ERA, 197 strikeouts in 194 innings pitched.  0.95 WHIP.  Everyone likes Yu (will that be the last time I can use that joke this year?)... He is pitching very well this season.  Yu was on the mound for the Dodgers way back in 2017 when they lost a World Series… he got roasted for it.  He may have a chip on his shoulder and really really want this win.

Dodgers: LHP Clayton Kershaw, 12-3, 2.28 ERA, 137 strikeouts in 126 innings pitched.  0.94 WHIP.  Clayton Kershaw is a bonafide Dodger legend… He is the ACE of ACES.  He also doesn’t have the best postseason track record historically.  Of course he has tons of run support and a great bullpen backing him up.

Padres: LF Jurickson Profar, RF Juan Soto, 3B Manny Machado, DH Josh Bell, 2B Jake Cronenworth, 1B Will Myers, SS Ha-Seong Kim, CF Trent Grisham, C Austin Nola

Dodgers: RF Mookie Betts, SS Trea Turner, 1B Freddie Freeman, C Will Smith, DH Max Muncy, 3B Justin Turner, 2B Gavin Lux, CF Cody Bellingerl, LF Joey Gallo.   ** Traycde Thompson is expected to get the majority of the minutes over Gallo and Bellinger, guys who simply can not hit anymore.

Padres: Bob “um ma ma” Melvin

Dodgers: Dave “Crazy Legs” Roberts

Partly Cloudy, 75*, Humidity 76%, wind 7 mph.  Another great Southern California day fpr baseball.