San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game Prediction, Odds and Preview - 10/11/2022

Game Time: 9:37 pm ET, Tuesday, October 11th, 2022

Venue: Dodgers Stadium, Los Angeles, California

Where to Watch: FS1 

DraftKings: Moneyline: Padres +185, Dodgers -215; 7.0

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Padres +190, Dodgers -250; 7.5

PointsBet:  Moneyline: 

 

Padres: 89-73, 2nd place NL West

Dodgers: 111-51, 1st place NL West

A National League Divisional series that will hit some very expected results.  The San Diego Padres build their roster in the hopes of someday beating the Los Angeles Dodgers. They may one day do it… but this series is not the day.  This season the Dodgers played the Padres a bunch.. Winning every single series and SWEEPING 3 of them.  The Padres thought that they had the best approach to finally doing it by bidding highest for the services of Juan Soto (The Dodgers abandoned the chase for Soto when they realized that their eventual bid for Shohei Ohtani (coming soon) will be around 50 million a year)... but the Padres landed Soto.  The idea was clear… They would pair Soto with Machado and then in August Fernando Tatis Jr would return from injury and all of a sudden they would be the 1-2-3 Dodgers destroyer.  Then Tatis Jr tested positive for banned substances… You may know this talk as steroids or performance enhancing substances.  The result is that the Dodgers come into this playoff series just as they did every Padres/Dodgers series this season… with the MUCH better line-up.  A close look at pitching will tell you that the Padres have two good guys… 3 medium guys.. And average or trash after that.  The Dodgers pitching starting rotation is 1-4 the best rotation in the MLB… The bullpen is also the best bullpen in the MLB.  This is not a close series… It could have been but a bottle of Lance Armstrong Special ruined the Padres plans.

The San Diego Padres squeaked into the postseason on just enough wins to get the Wild Card bye… now they have to face the Dodgers. They come into this matchup average at the plate and slightly above average on the mound.  They get the benefit of playing some home games.  They also get the benefit of knowing The New York Mets have been blown out of the postseason already.  They don't get the benefit of avoiding the #1 batting AND #1 pitching team in the league.  They do have one very strong spot… That is the 1-2-3 batting lineup of Jurickson Profar, Manny Machado, and Juan Soto.  That alone means the Padres could win any game at any time.  Should they win just one of these games at Dodger Stadium… they will have stolen an advantage in the series that is worth writing home about.  

The Los Angeles Dodgers won 111 games this season and only went .500 over their last 6 games. They have been toying with the pitching and toying with the lineup to make sure everyone available will be ready and rested to play.   As said already the Dodgers are #1 in batting and #1 in pitching… any thought the Padres have of a few wins should start with gimmicks to get around the numbers.  I’m not sure baseball even has enough gimmicks.  In this matchup the betting lines will take into fact the Dodgers propensity to score 5.23 runs per game and a team ERA that sits at 2.80… which is not only a good team ERA but would be a great big number for an individual to ask for lots more money. The Dodgers have the advantage, it is clear.

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The San Diego Padres finished the season 13th in runs scored with 4.35 per game, 16th in batting average with .241, and 8th in OBP with .318.

The Dodgers finished the season 1st in scoring with 5.23 runs per game, 4th in batting average with .257, 1st on OBP with .333.

The Padres pitchers finished the season 11th in ERA with 3.81, 9th in WHIP, and their fielders finished 8th in errors with 76 on the season.  They will need a sudden uptick in pitching in order to even compete against the Dodgers… Not every pitcher is YU.

The Dodgers pitchers finished the season 1st in ERA with 2.80, 1st in WHIP with 1.05, and the fielders finished 13th in errors with 83 on the season. The problem with the errors is of course Cody Bellinger… a guy who has dropped (in just two seasons) from MVP to terrible hitter.  He is a good fielder, but the Dodgers constantly have to protect him from the lineup… That has led to some crazy substitutions all over the field.  The Dodgers are only a couple months from installing Trayce Thompson to start next season in Cody’s position permanently.  Cody will have to find his strike or forever remember the Glory Days (am i right Dabblers?).

Our prediction for Tuesday, October 11th is…  Dodgers 8 - Padres 4

The obvious bet here is for the OVER.  These two teams have built up GREAT batting line-ups… and yes quality pitching is everywhere in the Dodgers rotation and bullpen… but this is clearly a hitters game with Machado, Soto, Betts, Turner, Freeman… all poised to announce themselves in the postseason.  The Bet is for the OVER… especially if they are going to give you a 6.5 O/U…. If you want to score big you should try to parlay the OVER plus a Dodgers win ATS (1.5).  That sort of bet could bankroll a solid postseason.

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San Diego is 53-41 (+28.0 net games) on the road off a shutout win
Los Angeles is 263-82 (+56.6 net games) as a home favorite of -200 or more
Los Angeles is 43-27 Under vs. division rivals

Padres: TBD
Dodgers: TBD

Padres: LF Jurickson Profar, RF Juan Soto, 3B Manny Machado, DH Josh Bell, 2B Jake Cronenworth, 1B Will Myers, SS Ha-Seong Kim, CF Trent Grisham, C Austin Nola

Dodgers: RF Mookie Betts, SS Trea Turner, 1B Freddie Freeman, C Will Smith, DH Max Muncy, 3B Justin Turner, 2B Gavin Lux, CF Cody Bellinger, LF Joey Gallo.   ** Trayce Thompson is expected to get the majority of the minutes over Gallo and Bellinger, guys who simply cannot hit anymore.

Padres: Bob “um ma ma” Melvin

Dodgers: Dave “Crazy Legs” Roberts

Partly Cloudy, 75*, Humidity 76%, wind 7 mph.  Another great Southern California day for baseball.