San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Prediction, Odds and Preview - 08/18/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Tuesday, Aug 17, 2021
Game Time: 3:10 pm ET, Wednesday, August 18, 2021
Venue:  Coors Field, Denver, CO
Where to Watch:  Sportsnet Rocky Mountain

Season-to-Date Record:

San Diego Padres:  67-54 (3rd place, NL West)
Colorado Rockies:  53-66 (4th place, NL West)

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks:

DraftKings:  San Diego Padres -145, Colorado Rockies +125, Over/Under 14
Bet365:  N/A, N/A, N/A
BetMGM:  N/A, N/A, N/A

Key Injuries:

San Diego:  Jurickson Profar (LF) Out indefinitely due to an illness.
Colorado:  Raimel Tapia (LF) Out indefinitely with a toe injury.

Recent Lineups:

San Diego:
1. Adam Frazier (2B)
2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (RF)
3. Manny Machado (3B)
4. Jake Cronenworth (SS)
5. Tommy Pham (LF)
6. Eric Hosmer (1B)
7. Victor Caratini (C) 
8. Trent Grisham (CF)
9. Matt Strahm (P)
1. Connor Joe (LF)
2. Brendan Rodgers (2B)
3. Trevor Story (SS)
4. Charlie Blackmon (RF)
5. C.J. Cron (1B)
6. Ryan McMahon (3B)
7. Elias Diaz (C)
8. Sam Hilliard (CF)
9. German Marquez (P)

Statistical Leaders:

San Diego:
Batting Average:  Adam Frazier (.315)
Hits:  Adam Frazier (144)
Home Runs:  Fernando Tatis Jr. (33)
RBI:  Manny Machado (79)
Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis Jr. (23)
Wins:  Joe Musgrove (8)
Saves:  Mark Melancon (34)
ERA:  Taylor Williams (1.69)
Batting Average:  Chris Owings (.326)
Hits:  Raimel Tapia (114)
Home Runs:  C.J. Cron (20)
RBI:  C.J. Cron (64)
Stolen Bases:  Raimel Tapia (19)
Wins:  German Marquez (10)
Saves:  Daniel Bard (19)
ERA:  Jordan Sheffield (3.26)


San Diego: Jayce Tingler (2nd season)
Colorado: Bud Black (5th season)

Recent Form:

The San Diego Padres come into this game in the middle of a big slump. After winning 3 games straight, the Padres have only picked up 1 win in their last 6 games. They have been struggling greatly in their road games recently, picking up just 3 wins in their last 10 away games. On the bright side for them, their bats have started to wake up in their last couple games. After going through a four game stretch where they scored a total of 5 runs, they have managed to put up 13 runs in their last 2 games. They are going up against a Rockies side that have started to pick up their game as of late. After going through a 4 game losing streak, the Rockies have managed to put together 2 wins in their last 3 games. When playing at home, the Rockies have been incredible lately. They have won their last 5 straight home games at Coors Field, and have picked up 8 wins in their last 10 games there. Scoring runs have definitely not been a problem for them in their past few games. They have scored a total of 16 runs in their last 4 games, averaging 4 runs scored per game in that span. 

Series History:

The Colorado Rockies have the upper hand here when it comes to the series history between these two teams this season. The Rockies have a winning record of 9-8 this season against the Padres after winning the series opener on Monday night. The Padres got off to a strong start against the Rockies winning 5 of the first 6 encounters between these two. That has quickly faded though, as the Rockies have won 8 of the last 11 games against this Padres team. 

Statistical Comparison:

The San Diego Padres have been a solid team this season when it comes to hitting the ball. This is a team that ranks in the top 10 in the MLB in most of the major hitting categories. The Padres are ranked 10th in the league for batting average (.247), 10th in the league for RBI (544), 8th in the league for hits (990), and they are 7th in the league for OBP (.328). The Padres have also been solid when it comes to pitching this year, being in the top 10 in the MLB, even reaching top 5 in some categories. The Padres are ranked 7th in the league for ERA (3.68), 2nd in the league for saves (38), 4th in the league for Ks (1153), and 10th in the league for WHIP (1.24).
The Colorado Rockies have not had as good a year for hitting as the Padres but, they still rank in the top half of the MLB for most categories. They are ranked 8th in the league for batting average (.248), 17th in the league for RBI (506), 10th in the league for hits (982), and 17th in the league for OBP (.316). The Rockies definitely have a major disadvantage in the pitching game as they rank in the bottom 10 of the MLB for all the major categories. The Rockies are ranked 24th in the league for ERA (4.72), 25th in the league for saves (22), 25th in the league for Ks (944), and they are 23rd in the league for WHIP (1.37).
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Padres vs Rockies

Game Preview:

The San Diego Padres will be in Colorado taking on the Rockies on Wednesday night in a battle between two National League West teams. The Rockies opened up this three-game series with a 6-5 win in Monday’s game. The Padres were down 5-2 in the 9th inning and hit a 3-run homerun to tie things but it just was not enough as the Rockies struck back in the bottom of the 9th to win that game. Tuesday night's game will feature Matt Strahm and German Marquez battling it out on the mound.
For Wednesday afternoon’s game, the Padres starter will be Jake Arrieta on the mound. He is 5-11 this season with a 6.88 ERA. He has been having a very rough season being credited with 7 straight losses. The team has actually lost their last 8 straight games and 10 of their last 11 when he has started on the mound for them. He has been getting completely rocked in his recent starts, allowing 41 earned runs total over his last 10 starts, averaging 4 earned runs allowed per game in that span. He is coming off of a game where he allowed 8 earned runs in his last start, the 2nd occasion in his last 4 starts where he allowed 7+ ER in his last 4 starts.
Chi Chi Gonzalez will be throwing the first pitch for the Rockies in this one. He has not been having a good season either, he is 3-6 this year with a 6.06 ERA. He has been credited with 5 losses in his last 6 starts where there was a decision made. Despite the poor pitching, the team has actually won 2 of their last 3 games when he has made an appearance. In his last 5 starts, there has only been 1 occasion where he was blown up for 7 earned runs. 
Both of these starting pitchers have been struggling this season but Gonzalez has turned the page a bit better than Arrieta in their recent starts. Considering the recent form of these two teams, and the fact that the Rockies have been so good at home and have rolled over the Padres in their past few meetings, all of the value is on the Rockies in this game.

Notable quotes:

"It's great to see the guys continue to fight. You battle, you get the tying run on and Grish has the great at-bat, was able to go oppo and tie the game up. They all hurt. Especially when you fight to get back in this one." - Jayce Tingler on the effort his team put in to tie up the game late just to lose it in the bottom of the 9th.
"Chuck just squared one up the pitch before so I knew there was a chance he might go slider there. Nothing I was sitting on, but I was able to react." - C.J. Cron on hitting the walk-off homerun.


San Diego: Jake Arrieta is 33-14 on the road when the money line is +100 to -150 since 1997.
Colorado: 31-15 at home against NL teams that have a batting average worse than .255 this season.
Padres Rockies Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, August 18, 2021 (3:00pm ET start time) is Rockies 8 Padres 6.
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Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

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