San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Preview and Odds - 06/30/2023

Game Time: 5:10 pm ET, Friday, June 30, 2023

Venue:  Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH

Where to Watch:  BSOH

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -140, Reds +120; Over/Under:  11 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -140, Reds +120; Over/Under:  11 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -140, Reds +120; Over/Under:  11 runs

San Diego Padres:  37-43 (4th place, NL West)

Cincinnati Reds:  43-38 (1st place, NL Central)

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San Diego Padres:  3-7 last 10

Cincinnati Reds:  7-3 last 10

The Padres entered their last series on a 2 game losing streak and lost their 3-game series against the Washington Nationals 2-1. They enter this game with a 37-43 record overall and have a road record of 17-21. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Reds on Friday with the series finale of their series against the Pittsburgh Pirates still to be played on Thursday. They also lost the series opener and the 2nd game of that series on Tuesday and Wednesday. Their offense ranks 18th in the MLB with a .718 OPS. Joe Musgrove is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Yu Darvish is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 5-6 with a 4.84 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 ER, 0 HR, and 2 BB with 6 Ks on 7 hits through 6 IP against the San Francisco Giants.

The Reds are entering this series on a 2 game winning streak and won their 3-game series against the Baltimore Orioles 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 43-38 record overall and have a home record of 21-20. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 10th in the MLB with a .747 OPS. Luke Weaver was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Graham Ashcraft is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 3-6 with a 7.17 ERA this season. His team lost their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 6 earned runs, 3 homers, and 0 BB with 2 strikeouts on 10 hits through 4 innings played against the Atlanta Braves.

The current betting odds have the Padres listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Padres haven't been great this season with a record under .500 and the Reds have been really hot in their games lately, but the one thing the Padres do have going for them is good pitching this season. Their pitching wasn't great in their last few games but their bullpen will be looking to get back on track and they do have Darvish starting in this game. Darvish hasn't been pitching great this season and he gave up 4 runs in his last start but he has the potential to be their ace as he was last season and he will be looking to get himself back on track after a poor start to the season. The Reds have been really good lately with their offense putting up a ton of runs, but their pitching still hasn't been great and that has been a common theme for them all season. They also have Ashcraft on the mound here and he was terrible in his last start as he has been bad all season, giving up 6 runs in his last start. The Padres offense hasn't been great this year but the potential for greatness is there with that strong lineup and they can use this series to give their offense a spark with how bad the Reds pitching has been. The best way to place a bet here is on the Padres to win this game.

Padres Reds Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, June 30, 2023 (5:10 pm ET start time) is Padres 8 Reds 6.

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San Diego Padres: 37-43 (-20 units) on the moneyline in all games. 23-28 (-13.1 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 22-13 UNDER in road games. 10-4 UNDER against NL Central opponents.

Cincinnati Reds: 43-38 (+15.3 units) on the moneyline in all games. 19-6 (+17.1 units) on the moneyline after 2 or more consecutive wins. 8-3 UNDER after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more. 25-17 UNDER after scoring 9 runs or more.

San Diego Padres:  Y. Darvish (SP) Ques Fri - Illness. R. Knehr (SP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. S. Wilson (SP) Out indefinitely - Pectoral. M. Wacha (SP) Ques Fri - Shoulder. R. Suarez (SP) Mid July - Arm. T. Cosgrove (RP) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. L. Campusano (C) Late July - Thumb. D. Pomeranz (RP) Out indefinitely - Forearm. E. Rosario (3B) Mid July - Ankle.

Cincinnati Reds:  J. Dunn (SP) Mid Sept - Shoulder. B. Lively (RP) Out indefinitely - Pectoral. T. Santillan (SP) Early July - Back. R. Sanmartin (SP) Early July - Elbow. C. Legumina (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. H. Greene (SP) Out indefinitely - Hip. N. Lodolo (SP) Early Aug - Calf. C. Overton (SP) out for season - Elbow. D. Law (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. V. Gutierrez (SP) Mid July - Elbow. T. Antone (RP) Mid July - Elbow.

“It's excruciating for everybody here. At a time where we should be playing better, it felt like we were going to, we've gone the other way. Now it's not just offensively. We're not playing good baseball across the board.” - Bob Melvin after his team’s loss against the Pirates in their game on Wednesday.

"What a great game. Two great teams, two teams that are playing well. It’s no surprise it kept going back and forth like that. We feel fortunate that our players had the at-bats and made the pitches to get it done.” - David Bell after his team’s win against the Orioles in their game on Wednesday.

Ha-Seong Kim (R) 2B

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF

Juan Soto (L) LF

Manny Machado (R) 3B

Xander Bogaerts (R) SS

Jake Cronenworth (L) 1B

Gary Sanchez (R) C

Matt Carpenter (L) DH

Trent Grisham (L) CF

TJ Friedl (L) CF

Matt McLain (R) SS

Jonathan India (R) 2B

Elly De La Cruz (S) 3B

Jake Fraley (L) RF

Joey Votto (L) DH

Spencer Steer (R) 1B

Tyler Stephenson (R) C

Will Benson (L) LF

Batting Average:  Alfonso Rivas (.286)

Hits:  Juan Soto (73)

Home Runs:  Fernando Tatis (15)

RBI:  Juan Soto (41)

Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (14)

Wins:  Michael Wacha (7)

Saves:  Josh Hader (18)

ERA:  Tom Cosgrove (0.53)

Batting Average:  TJ Friedl (.320)

Hits:  Spencer Steer (80)

Home Runs:  Spencer Steer (12)

RBI:  Jake Fraley (49)

Stolen Bases:  TJ Friedl (14)

Wins:  Ian Gibaut (8)

Saves:  Alexis Diaz (22)

ERA:  Ricky Karcher (0.00)

Managers:

San Diego Padres: Bob Melvin (2nd season)

Cincinnati Reds: David Bell (5th season)