San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Preview and Odds - 06/28/2025

Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Saturday, June 28, 2025

Venue:  Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH

Where to Watch:  PADRES.tv, FDSOH

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +128, Reds -157; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +130, Reds -155; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +130, Reds -155; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

San Diego Padres:  44-36 (2nd place, NL West)

Cincinnati Reds:  42-39 (4th place, NL Central)

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San Diego Padres:  5-5 last 10

Cincinnati Reds:  6-4 last 10

The Padres are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Washington Nationals 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 44-36 record overall and have a road record of 19-22. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Reds on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 22nd in the MLB with a .695 OPS. Dylan Cease is their starting pitcher on Friday while Randy Vásquez is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 3-4 with a 3.60 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 2 SO on 5 hits through 7 IP against the Kansas City Royals.

The Reds are entering this series off a loss and won their 3-game series against the New York Yankees 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 42-39 record overall and have a home record of 22-18. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 13th in the MLB with a .720 OPS. Nick Martinez is their starting pitcher on Friday while Andrew Abbott is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 7-1 with a 1.79 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 0 homers, and 0 walks with 3 strikeouts on 4 hits through 7 innings pitched against the St Louis Cardinals.

The current betting odds have the Reds listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Padres have looked good in their games this season with their 44-36 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL West. They haven't been a great road team though with their 19-22 road record this season. Meanwhile, the Reds have looked good in their games this season with their 42-39 record overall, but that record has them right near the bottom of the NL Central in a competitive division. They have looked better in their own ballpark this year with their 22-18 home record. The Reds have also been the slightly hotter team lately as they are 6-4 in their last 10 games while the Padres are 5-5, and the Reds have the better pitching matchup to take advantage of here. Vasquez is on the mound for the Padres in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 3-4 with a 3.60 ERA and only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start, but the team has still lost 2 of their last 3 games with him starting and this isn't going to be a game where the Padres put up a ton of runs. Abbott is on the mound for the Reds here and he has been their ace this season. He is 7-1 with a 1.79 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs all year. He only gave up 1 earned run in his last start which has been a common theme for him lately, and the team has also won 3 games in a row with him starting. Abbott always gives the Reds their best chance to win when he is on the mound and the Reds have also had the better offense all year. The best way to place a bet here is on the Reds to win this game. 

Padres Reds Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, June 28, 2025 (4:10 pm ET start time) is Reds 2 Padres 0.

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San Diego Padres: 43-36 (-4.4 units) on the moneyline against NL Central opponents. 166-149 (-9.1 units) on the moneyline vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 errors/game or less. 106-88 (-8.7 units) on the moneyline vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse. 10-5 UNDER against NL Central opponents.

Cincinnati Reds: 42-34 (+14.4 units) on the moneyline against NL West opponents. 199-204 (+9.9 units) on the moneyline in all games. 149-137 (+28 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 45-25 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%).

San Diego Padres:  R. Bergert (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. X. Bogaerts (SS) Day To Day - Shoulder. Y. Darvish (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. M. King (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. J. Brito (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. L. Gillaspie (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Oblique. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Cincinnati Reds:  C. Joe (RF) Ten Day IL - Illness. W. Miley (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Flexor. G. Ashcraft (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Groin. H. Greene (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Groin. R. Lowder (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. A. Hays (LF) Ten Day IL - Foot. C. Spiers (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. Callihan (LF) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. N. Marte (3B) Ten Day IL - Side. B. Williamson (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Aguiar (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“When you have good players, it creates a lot of options. Those first four guys are somewhat interchangeable. Just trying to find the right mix.” - Mike Shildt after his team’s win against the Nationals in their game on Wednesday.

“Even if they don’t add on that [fifth] inning, there’s a lot more work to do. I always feel that way. It’s never going to always show up in the scorebook, but it doesn’t help the pitcher, ever.” - Terry Francona after his team’s loss against the Yankees in their game on Wednesday.

Luis Arraez (L) 1B

Manny Machado (R) 3B

Jackson Merrill (L) CF

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF

Gavin Sheets (L) DH

Jose Iglesias (R) SS

Bryce Johnson (S) LF

Tyler Wade (L) 2B

Elias Díaz (R) C

TJ Friedl (L) CF

Matt McLain (R) 2B

Elly De La Cruz (S) SS

Tyler Stephenson (R) DH

Spencer Steer (R) LF

Jose Trevino (R) C

Rece Hinds (R) RF

Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R) 1B

Santiago Espinal (R) 3B

Batting Average:  Bryce Johnson (.417)

Hits:  Manny Machado (91)

Home Runs:  Fernando Tatis (15)

RBI:  Manny Machado (47)

Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (16)

Wins:  Nick Pivetta (8)

Saves:  Robert Suarez (22)

ERA:  Bradgley Rodriguez (0.00)

Batting Average:  Austin Wynns (.400)

Hits:  Elly De La Cruz (86)

Home Runs:  Elly De La Cruz (18)

RBI:  Elly De La Cruz (55)

Stolen Bases:  Elly De La Cruz (21)

Wins:  Brady Singer (7)

Saves:  Emilio Pagán (18)

ERA:  Connor Phillips (0.00)

Managers:

San Diego Padres: Mike Shildt (2nd season)

Cincinnati Reds: Terry Francona (1st season)