San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/01/2026

Game Time: 2:20 pm ET, Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Venue:  Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL 

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +113, Cubs -136; Over/Under:  NL runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +115, Cubs -135; Over/Under:  NL runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Padres +110, Cubs -135; Over/Under:  NL runs

San Diego Padres:  43-40 (2nd place, NL West)

Chicago Cubs:  47-38 (2nd place, NL Central)

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San Diego Padres:  5-5 last 10

Chicago Cubs:  8-2 last 10

The Padres are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 43-40 record overall and have a road record of 20-19. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Cubs on Wednesday with the 2nd game still to be played on Tuesday. The Padres lost the series opener on Monday. Their offense ranks 30th in the MLB with a .663 OPS. JP Sears is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Walker Buehler is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 5-3 with a 3.81 ERA this season. His team won their last 4 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 3 BB with 5 SO on 3 hits through 5.1 IP against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Cubs are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 47-38 record overall and have a home record of 24-17. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Wednesday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Tuesday. The Cubs won the 1st game of this series on Monday. Their offense ranks 7th in the MLB with a .736 OPS. Matthew Boyd is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Colin Rea is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 5-5 with a 4.80 ERA this season. His team lost their last 5 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 0 homers, and 3 walks with 4 strikeouts on 5 hits through 5 innings pitched against the Milwaukee Brewers.

The current betting odds have the Padres listed as an underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Cubs have looked good in their games this season with their 47-38 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL Central. They have looked good in their own ballpark too with their 24-17 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Padres have looked good in their games this season with their 43-40 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL West. They have been a good road team too with their 20-19 road record this year. The Cubs have been rolling lately and they are 8-2 in their last 10 games now, but they have had a lot of issues with their pitching this season and this isn't going to be a game which they have a good pitching matchup in. The Padres are only 5-5 in their last 10 games and have one of the worst offenses in MLB, but their pitching has been carrying them through the season and this is going to be another one of those games. The Padres are going with Buehler in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 5-3 with a 3.81 ERA and he has looked a lot better in his starts lately. He only gave up 1 earned run in his last start which has been becoming a common theme for him lately, and his team has been having a ton of success too, winning 4 games in a row now with him on the mound. The Cubs are going with Rea in this one and he hasn't looked great this year. He is 5-5 with a 4.80 ERA and the team hasn't had a ton of success with him lately. They have lost 5 games in a row now with him starting and even though he is coming off a good start in which he gave up 1 earned run, that hasn't been a common theme for him this season. This is a good opportunity for the Padres to take a game in this series with the better pitching, so look for them to take advantage of this matchup. The best way to place a bet here is on the Padres to win this game. 

Padres Cubs Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, July 1, 2026 (2:20 pm ET start time) is Padres 5 Cubs 4.

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San Diego Padres: 50-36 (+10.8 units) on the moneyline against NL Central opponents. 232-186 (+24.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 109-99 (+15.6 units) on the moneyline in road games. 13-7 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%).

Chicago Cubs: 95-86 (-10.8 units) on the moneyline when the money line is -100 to -150. 151-140 (-3.5 units) on the moneyline vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 errors/game or less. 31-44 (-14.1 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better. 43-27 UNDER vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better.

San Diego Padres:  D. Morgan (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Knee. L. Giolito (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. J. Estrada (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Knee. R. Laureano (LF) Sixty Day IL - Hip. N. Pivetta (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. L. Campusano (C) Ten Day IL - Toe. M. Waldron (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Arm. G. Marquez (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. B. Hoeing (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Chicago Cubs:  M. Shaw (RF) Ten Day IL - Hand. E. Roberts (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. H. Milner (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Appendicitis. P. Maton (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Knee. B. Brown (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Neck. E. Cabrera (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Hamstring. D. Palencia (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. J. Taillon (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Hamstring. R. Martin (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. P. Hodge (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Horton (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. H. Harvey (RP) Sixty Day IL - Tricep. J. Steele (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Austin (1B) Sixty Day IL - Knee. S. Miller (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“We need some length out of the starting pitcher. We can’t just run our bullpen into the ground. And then there’s also the caveat of trying to stay competitive in a game also. It’s weighing those two options, and me, as the manager, got to figure out a better way to make those two things happen.” - Craig Stammen on the team’s pitching troubles.  

“We took a chance on the fly ball. You have to go on the fly ball. They made a nice play.” - Craig Counsell after his team’s win against the Padres in their game on Monday.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF

Samad Taylor (R) LF

Manny Machado (R) 3B

Miguel Andujar (R) DH

Ty France (R) 1B

Jackson Merrill (L) CF

Xander Bogaerts (R) SS

Freddy Fermin (R) C

Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B

Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) CF

Alex Bregman (R) 3B

Michael Busch (L) 1B

Seiya Suzuki (R) DH

Ian Happ (S) LF

Nico Hoerner (R) 2B

Michael Conforto (L) RF

Miguel Amaya (R) C

Dansby Swanson (R) SS

Batting Average:  Samad Taylor (.319)

Hits:  Fernando Tatis (90)

Home Runs:  Manny Machado (15)

RBI:  Manny Machado (44)

Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (19)

Wins:  Randy Vásquez (6)

Saves:  Mason Miller (21)

ERA:  Mason Miller (0.78)

Batting Average:  Justin Dean (.500)

Hits:  Pete Crow-Armstrong (91)

Home Runs:  Pete Crow-Armstrong (17)

RBI:  Dansby Swanson (46)

Stolen Bases:  Pete Crow-Armstrong (20)

Wins:  Javier Assad (6)

Saves:  Daniel Palencia (3)

ERA:  Ty Blach (0.00)

Managers:

San Diego Padres: Craig Stammen (1st season)

Chicago Cubs: Craig Counsell (3rd season)