by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Jul 22, 2026
Game Time: 12:15 pm ET, Thursday, July 23, 2026
Venue: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Where to Watch: MLB TV
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Padres +187, Braves -231; Over/Under: 8 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Padres +185, Braves -225; Over/Under: 8 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Padres +185, Braves -225; Over/Under: 8 runs
Season Record
San Diego Padres: 50-51 (3rd place, NL West)
Atlanta Braves: 58-42 (1st place, NL East)
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Recent Form
San Diego Padres: 5-5 last 10
Atlanta Braves: 6-4 last 10
San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Preview and Analysis
The Padres are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Kansas City Royals 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 50-51 record overall and have a road record of 23-27. This is the series finale of a 4-game series with the Braves on Thursday with the 3rd game still to be played on Wednesday. The Padres lost the series opener on Monday and won the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 27th in the MLB with a .688 OPS. Michael King is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Griffin Canning is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 1-8 with a 6.67 ERA this season. His team lost their last 4 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 4 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 4 SO on 5 hits through 3.2 IP against the Kansas City Royals.
The Braves are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Texas Rangers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 58-42 record overall and have a home record of 30-20. This is the 4th game of a 4-game series with the Padres on Thursday with the 3rd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Braves won the 1st game of this series on Monday and lost the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 11th in the MLB with a .732 OPS. Martín Pérez is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Chris Sale is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 10-6 with a 2.06 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 0 walks with 6 strikeouts on 2 hits through 7 innings pitched against the Texas Rangers.
Padres vs Braves Prediction
The current betting odds have the Braves listed as a big favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Braves have looked great in their games this season with their 58-42 record overall which has them right at the top of the NL East with one of the best records in MLB. They have looked great in their own ballpark too with their 30-20 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Padres haven't looked great in their games this season with their 50-51 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL West. They haven't been a great road team either with their 23-27 road record this year. The Padres are 5-5 in their last 10 games and they haven't looked great lately with one of the worst offenses in MLB. The Braves have a much stronger offense to lean on and have looked a lot better lately, now 6-4 in their last 10 games. The Braves also have the better pitching matchup here and will take advantage of that at home where they have looked better this season. The Braves are going with Sale in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 10-6 with a 2.06 ERA and he hasn't been giving up many runs all year being their ace. He is coming off another great start in which he gave up no runs, something that has been a common theme for him, and the team has won 2 of their last 3 games with him starting too. The Padres are going with Canning in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 1-8 with a 6.67 ERA and he has been giving up a ton of runs all year. He gave up 4 earned runs in his last start which has been a common theme for him and the team has lost 4 games in a row now with him starting too. All signs point to the Braves taking this one at home with one of their best on the mound. The best way to place a bet here is on the Braves to win this game and on the runline.
Padres Braves Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Thursday, July 23, 2026 (12:15 pm ET start time) is Braves 5 Padres 1.
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MLB Betting Trends
San Diego Padres: 46-38 (+7.8 units) on the moneyline against NL East opponents. 239-197 (+20.9 units) on the moneyline in all games. 112-107 (+11.6 units) on the moneyline in road games. 11-6 UNDER against NL East opponents.
Atlanta Braves: 35-52 (-32.8 units) on the moneyline against NL West opponents. 223-203 (-46.7 units) on the moneyline in all games. 115-97 (-28.6 units) on the moneyline in home games. 122-80 UNDER in home games.
Key Injuries
San Diego Padres: M. Andujar (DH) Ten Day IL - Wrist. S. Taylor (LF) Ten Day IL - Oblique. J. Adam (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. D. Morgan (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Knee. L. Giolito (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. J. Estrada (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Knee. R. Laureano (LF) Sixty Day IL - Hip. N. Pivetta (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Hoeing (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
Atlanta Braves: M. Perez (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. H. Kim (SS) Ten Day IL - Finger. R. Suarez (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. S. Strider (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Acuna Jr. (RF) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. S. Murphy (C) Sixty Day IL - Finger. A. Smith-Shawver (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Wentz (RP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. J. Jimenez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. S. Schwellenbach (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
Notable Quotes
“If you can hit ‘em that far, why can’t you just get the one that just scrapes over the wall? Easier said than done in Major League Baseball.” - Craig Stammen after his team’s win against the Braves in their game on Tuesday.
“These guys are all capable of being good Major League starters. So that's what I expect the rest of the way.” - Walt Weiss after his team’s loss against the Padres in their game on Tuesday.
Starting Lineups
San Diego Padres
Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF
Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B
Manny Machado (R) 3B
Ty France (R) 1B
Jackson Merrill (L) CF
Luis Campusano (R) C
Gavin Sheets (L) LF
Xander Bogaerts (R) SS
Luis Rengifo (S) DH
Atlanta Braves
Drake Baldwin (L) C
Ozzie Albies (S) 2B
Matt Olson (L) 1B
Austin Riley (R) 3B
Michael Harris II (L) CF
Mauricio Dubón (R) LF
Mike Yastrzemski (L) DH
Brewer Hicklen (R) RF
Jim Jarvis (L) SS
Statistical Leaders
San Diego Padres
Batting Average: Luis Rengifo (.500)
Hits: Fernando Tatis (112)
Home Runs: Manny Machado (22)
RBI: Manny Machado (59)
Stolen Bases: Fernando Tatis (25)
Wins: Adrian Morejon (7)
Saves: Mason Miller (25)
ERA: Mason Miller (0.86)
Atlanta Braves
Batting Average: Jair Camargo (.500)
Hits: Michael Harris (107)
Home Runs: Matt Olson (26)
RBI: Matt Olson (59)
Stolen Bases: Ronald Acuña (15)
Wins: Chris Sale (10)
Saves: Raisel Iglesias (19)
ERA: Hunter Stratton (0.00)
Managers:
San Diego Padres: Craig Stammen (1st season)
Atlanta Braves: Walt Weiss (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
