by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Apr 07, 2022
Game time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Venue: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Where to watch: Bally Sports San Diego, Bally Sports Arizona
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Padres -160, Diamondbacks +140
BetMGM: Padres -160, Diamondbacks +135
Caesars: Padres -161, Diamondbacks +140
Season record
Padres: 79-83 (3rd place, NL West)
Diamondbacks: 52-110 (Last place, NL West)
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Padres - D-Backs preview and analysis
Are the San Diego Padres really who they are without Fernando Tatis Jr? One can argue in favor of that considering how last year took a nosedive of epic proportions. The Padres were a playoff team, and then they weren’t, and then they really weren’t. Not even that stacked pitching rotation could save them given how little run support they got without their superstar in the fold.
Tatis will be out for the first two to three months after an offseason motorcycle accident resulted in a fractured wrist. On top of being told to never ride motorcycles ever again by manager Bob Melvin, the Padres will be without their polarizing superstar. Not a great start to the 14-year, $340 million contract that preceded it.
But that’s for later this summer when the biggest on-field acquisition returns. Right now, the attention turns to the man running the show for the Padres from the bench. Melvin comes to San Diego from Oakland after 11 years with the Athletics that included six postseason trips but resulted in no trips beyond the ALDS.
"It was so inspiring to be there and to feel the way those fans affected things," Melvin said. "It's almost like a 10th man. You don't consider them fans; you consider them a part of what could happen for us. I'm really looking forward to that, and I think our players are, too. I don't want them to be callous to the fact that you just don't get that everywhere."
Melvin is sort of like the Padres, in a sense: Dying for a chance to show that with the right connection, they can go far. Melvin will try and get this group to a place it hasn’t been in a long time and his players seem to already want to play for the man.
"He is as competitive as they come," bench coach Ryan Christenson said. "That's one of the things that makes him attractive to these players. He's going to be the first one out there, getting their back and arguing for them when it needs to happen."
The Padres will be taking on the Arizona Diamondbacks in Chase Field on Thursday in what should be the favorable matchup that’s expected for San Diego. While the Padres don’t have Tatis to the rescue, it can only be assumed that not all problems in Arizona have been fixed. They were still one of the worst teams in baseball last season and will draft No. 2 overall on July 17.
Madison Bumgarner will take the mound for the opener, but the former ace is not going to save the D-Backs. Ketel Marte can still be one of the more elite players in the game, but outside of that, who’s going to step up at the plate for Arizona?
"It's motivating me, and it gets me going," Arizona manager Torey Lovullo said. "It gets me charged up and I get out of bed with a lot to prove to myself and the people around me every single day. What I think happens is winners find a way to learn from their mistakes and they turn that into growth, and I think that's the way I'm looking at it."
Prediction
Not much has changed from Arizona’s perspective after winning only 52 games a year ago. San Diego might not have its MVP, but the lineup is still dangerous enough at certain spots -- looking at you, Manny Machado -- to carry this group to victory. I won’t call it a sweep, but there’s no doubt it should be at least a convincing victory for the Friars. Padres win 6-2
Betting trends
The Padres are 93-67 (-19.7 net games on money line) as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last three seasons.
The Padres 48-31 (+2.4 net games on ML) as a favorite between -125 and -175 the past three seasons.
The Diamondbacks are 54-120 (-38.8 net games on ML) as an underdog of +100 or higher the past three seasons.
Projected lineup
Padres:
Trent Grisham (L) CF
Manny Machado (R) 3B
Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B
Luke Voit (R) DH
Eric Hosmer (L) 1B
Wil Myers (R) RF
Austin Nola (R) C
Jurickson Profar (S) LF
Ha-Seong Kim (R) SS
Trent Grisham (L) CF
Manny Machado (R) 3B
Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B
Luke Voit (R) DH
Eric Hosmer (L) 1B
Wil Myers (R) RF
Austin Nola (R) C
Jurickson Profar (S) LF
Ha-Seong Kim (R) SS
Diamondbacks:
Daulton Varsho (L) CF
Ketel Marte (S) 2B
David Peralta (L) LF
Christian Walker (R) DH
Pavin Smith (L) RF
Drew Ellis (R) 3B
Seth Beer (L) 1B
Geraldo Perdomo (S) SS
Jose Herrera (S) C
Daulton Varsho (L) CF
Ketel Marte (S) 2B
David Peralta (L) LF
Christian Walker (R) DH
Pavin Smith (L) RF
Drew Ellis (R) 3B
Seth Beer (L) 1B
Geraldo Perdomo (S) SS
Jose Herrera (S) C
Starting pitchers
SD: Yu Darvish
ARI: Madison Bumgarner
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert MLB picks today. And if you enjoyed this San Diego Padres - Arizona Diamondbacks preview, be sure to drop by every day for our daily MLB projections and predictions.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
