San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds and Preview - 08/13/2021

Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Friday, August 13th, 2021
Venue:  Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona
Where to Watch:  Bally Sports San Diego, Bally Sports Arizona

Padres: 66-50 (3rd place, National League West)
Diamondbacks: 35-80 (5th (last) place, National League West)

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -170, Diamondbacks+150; Over/Under:  8.5 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -145, Diamondbacks +125; Over/Under 8.5 runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Padres -170, Diamondbacks +150; Over/Under 8.5 runs

Padres:  Fernando Tatis Jr (shoulder) Out, CJ Adams Out, Dinelson Limet (forearm) Out
Diamondbacks:  Kole Calhoun Day to Day, Kristian Robinson (charges pending) Day to Day, 

T. Grisham, CF
A. Frazier, 2B
M. Machado, 3B
E. Hosmer, 1B
A. Nola, C
W. Myers, RF
B. O'Grady, LF
H. Kim, SS 

J. VanMeter, 2B
K. Marte, CF
A. Cabrera, 3B
K. Calhoun, RF
P. Smith, LF
D. Peralta, LF
D. Varsho, C
N. Ahmed, SS

Padres:

Batting Average:  Fernando Tatis Jr (.292)

Hits:  Jake Cronenworth (116)

Home Runs:  Fernando Tatis Jr (31)

RBI: Manny Machado (31)

Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis Jr (23)

Wins:  Joe Musgrove (8)

Saves:  Mark Melancon (34)

ERA: Joe Musgrove (2.81)

Diamondbacks:

Batting Average:  Pavin Smith (.268)

Hits:  Pavin Smith (99)

Home Runs:  Eduardo Escobar (22)

RBI:  Eduardo Escobar (91)

Stolen Bases:  Josh Rojas (7)

Wins:  Merrill Kelly (7)

Saves: Joakim Soria  (6)

ERA:  Merril Kelly (.430)

Padres:  Jayce Tingler, GM AJ Preller
Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo,  GM Mike Hazen

The Padres are 6-4 over their last ten.  In the hotly contested National League West that won’t get it done.  They notched 7 Overs and 3 Unders during that span.  They went 2-3 against the Miami Marlins, 2-3 against these same Diamondbacks, 1-2 against the Oakland Athletics, 1-2 against the Colorado Rockies.  They want to put pressure on the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants (with just six week left to go) and they drop one to the Miami Marlins on Wednesday with a 7-0 score.  It’s not July anymore, it’s time to win now.

The Diamondbacks are 2-8 over their last ten.  Logging 5Overs, 4 Unders and a Push. They are on a four game losing streak.  There are plenty of 1-run games in this season’s losing record, but they really were in very few of them. Arizona hasn’t been relevant since April.  Madison Bumgarner is 1-2 over the last ten games. I remember when we all thought he could do more. Of course Madison is only the projected starting pitcher.  It could change if there is trouble in Thursday’s matinee

The San Diego Padres are 9th in batting average (.248), 9th in runs scored (554), 8th in hits (950).  Guys like Tatis and Machado can lay it on against all opponents. Fantasy Baseball fanatics will likely have 1 or 2 Padres in their line-up.  Newsrooms prepare news coverage of the home runs… but it’s deceptive.  The Padres are 16th in home runs, they score by getting hits and bringing runners around the bases.  They can and will lose if their pitcher gets outdueled

The San Diego Padres are 4th in team ERA (3.56), 4th in strikeouts (1113), 12th in home runs given up.  For entertainment purposes the long ball is their weak spot, but all in all the Padres throw with accuracy.  Los Angeles heads always compare the Padres to the strong Dodgers, but the Padres are pretty strong this year too… the Padres odds would be great in most other years but the Division is tough this year.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 26th in batting average (.232), 23rd in runs scored (473), 21st in hits (901). They don’t make hard contact with the ball, they rarely get a triple, the margin between their last place and the Colorado Rockies 4th place is growing… and the Rockies hardly ever win!! There are six weeks left in the season and the only reasonable goal for a team like this is to strive for winning consecutive games.

Diamondback pitching is 29th in ERA 5.36, 28th in strikeouts (899), and 29th in preventing home runs.  The stats have a lot of length which tells me the numbers are no better if I switched to a strict bullpen comparison.  They pitch in a hitters’ park and they don’t have good pitchers… all week long and twice on Sunday.

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The Padres projected starter is lefty Blake Snell (2018 AL Cy Young Award winner) 6-4, 4.86 ERA, 124 strikeouts, 1.56 Whip. It’s a long way from 2018.  Yet Blake gets the run support he needs to have gone 4-1 over the last 7 starts in 35 innings pitched.

First pitch for the Diamondbacks will be lefty Madison Bumgarner 6-7, 4.42 ERA, 82 strikeouts, 1.13 Whip.  Madison was the World Series MVP for the San Francisco Giants in 2014 he was a 26-year-old).  It’s 2021 now and Madison is 32.  He’s stuck on a last-place team, throwing a 4.42 and no doubt wondering if he should make the jump to middle reliever and smaller paydays to extend his career.  Yet I bet he would throw better on one of those fancy teams like the Orioles

A battle of yesteryear starters. Too bad for Bumgarner he throws for the team that was first to 80 losses this year.

"I'm really proud of these players,....It was exciting to get the win but the fact they just played hard every single day, every single inning and kept it going. Obviously there weren't a lot of wins but there was never any laying down. There were a lot of guys battling, grinding through everything. It was nice to get a win on the last day. It was pretty cool to be a part of this."  -James Rowson, acting Manager of the Miami Marlins, about avoiding the series sweep and getting a 7-0 win over the Padres in Petco Park. Oddly proud of leading the last place team on a losing road trip.

"The ball was flying out of this ballpark today in certain areas," -Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo   (someone should tell him those are home runs)

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