San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Game Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/18/2022

Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Sunday, September 18th, 2022

Venue: Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona

Where to Watch: MLB.tv, 

DraftKings: Moneyline:  Padres -141, D-Backs +120; O/U 9

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  

PointsBet:  Moneyline: 

 

Padres: 79-66, 3nd place NL West

D-Backs: 68-76, 4th place NL West

On Friday night the Padres beat the Diamondbacks 12-3.  My prediction was to take the Padres on the moneyline.  The Saturday Game will go off tonight, the prediction is out for that game already.  This prediction is for Sunday’s Padres/D-Backs game.  Once again this matchup relies heavily on starting pitching and the production of Machado and Soto (the two best players play for the Padres).  Let’s check the numbers and make a prediction below.

A National League West matchup between the 2nd place team and the 4th place team.  They aren’t close in wins and losses, but they both have a real rivalry against one another.  The matchup won’t shake the standings but it will provide a Great Betting Opportunity.  When these teams play we have to look closely at the pitching… more so than the betting trends.  The starting pitching will elucidate the ending… Let’s grow your bankroll and keep on betting the National League West!

The San Diego Padres have OK batting and OK pitching.  Their numbers are radically suppressed because they have been eaten alive by the Los Angeles Dodgers… of course the D-Backs are in the same boat.  They have won 5 of their last 10 games.  The Padres were dealt a death blow when Fernando Tatis Jr was suspended for the rest of this season and some of next season.  They had all their eggs in one basket… That basket was to pair Manny Machado and Juan Soto for a great duo… AND THEN add Fernando when he got off injury.  The last stretch of this season was supposed to be a sprint with an amazing trio.  That didn’t happen.  The leftover of that plan is of course that Manny and Juan will be the two best batters in this matchup by far… and they both hit for the Padres.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have won 4 of their last 10 games.  They are in the part of the season where they may experiment with the lineup or the rotation for next season.  That often has disastrous effects.  They went 1-2 against the Los Angeles Dodgers, 1-2 against the Colorado Rockies, 1-2 against the San Diego Padres, and  1-0 against the Milkwaukee Brewers.

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SDP:

ARI: 66-74. 275 ML, 65-70-5 O/U, 37-35 in home games.

  

The Padres are 16th in scoring with 4.36 runs per game, 19th in batting average with .240, and 9th in OBP with .319

The D-Backs are 13th in scoring with 4.45 runs per game, 24th in batting average with .232, and 21st in OBP with .309.

The Padres pitchers are 17th in ERA with 3.95, 9th in WHIP with 1.22, and the fielders rank 12th in errors with 69 on the season so far.

The D-Backs pitchers are 22nd in team ERA with 4.27, 20th in WHIP with 1.29, and the fielders are 18th in errors with 76 on the season so far.

 

Our prediction for Sunday, September 18th is… Padres 5 - D-Backs 3

The bet here is for the UNDER.  The Books have extended a 9 run O/U line.  Yes, this is an overreaction to Friday Night’s big 12-3 score.  Take the under and simply don’t worry about who will win.  There is a reason the standard issue O/U comes in at 7.5 for most games. 

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The D-Backs are 97-180 in the last 3 seasons as an underdog of +100 or higher (-38.6 UNITS)

The Padres are 147-110 in the last 3 seasons as a favorite of -100 or higher (-36 UNITS)

Padres: 3B B Drury Out ** SS F Tatis Jr (suspended for drugs) Out

D-Backs: SS N Ahmed (shoulder) Out ** 

Padres: RHP Yu Darvish, 14-7, 3.16, 175 strikeouts in 176 innings pitched.  0.95 WHIP.  Everyone likes Yu.  Yu is pitching very effectively this season.  His record is good, his WHIP is nice.

Diamondbacks: RHP Ryne Nelson, 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 13 strikeouts in 13 innings pitched.  0.62 WHIP.  A recent “call-up” this 24 year old is as green as they come… Yet he did well in his debut as a starter getting the win against these Padres… However he did give up 4 hits to 7 strikeouts in 7 innings.  Will he be able to keep it up?

Padres: LF Jurickson Profar, RF Juan Soto, 3B Manny Machado, DH Josh Bell, 2B Jake Cronenworth, SS Ha-Seong Kim, 1B Will Myers, CF Trent Grisham, C Austin Nola

D-Backs: RF Daulton Varsho, CF Alek Thomas, LF Jake McCarthy, 1B Christian Walker, DH Ketel Marte, 3B Emmanuel Riveraz, 2B Wilmer Difo, C Cooper Hummel, SS Geraldo Perdomo

Padres: Bob “um ma ma” Melvin

D-Backs: Torey “this is fun” Lovullo

Sunny. Hot., 98*. IT'S ARIZONA!  It will cool down with sunset, but not that much.  The humidity will only be 26% which will lead to balls being able to fly.  Wind at 7 mph… will feel like nothing,