San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Game Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/17/2022

Game Time: 8:10 pm ET, Saturday, September 17th, 2022

Venue: Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona

Where to Watch: MLB.tv, 

DraftKings: Moneyline:  Padres -110, Diamondbacks -110; O/U 7

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  

PointsBet:  Moneyline: 

 

Padres: 78-65, 3nd place NL West

D-Backs: 67-75, 4th place NL West

Game 2 of this shootout in the desert.  Vegas has dropped the line to a pick’em.  That means that neither team is playing well enough to inspire confidence in their numbers.  The Great Betting Opportunity in Saturday night’s Game 2 of the series is that you will get an even money return if you hit… no matter who you bet on.  The downfall is we have to put our faith in one of two struggling teams.  The magic in a bet like this is usually found in the starting pitching… but then spills over to bullpen strength.  Let’s take a close look.

A National League West matchup between the 2nd place team and the 4th place team.  They aren’t close in wins and losses, but they both have a real rivalry against one another.  The matchup won’t shake the standings but it will provide a Great Betting Opportunity.  When these teams play we have to look closely at the pitching… more so than the betting trends.  The starting pitching will elucidate the ending… Let’s grow your bankroll and keep on betting the National League West!

The San Diego Padres have OK batting and OK pitching.  Their numbers are radically suppressed because they have been eaten alive by the Los Angeles Dodgers… of course the D-Backs are in the same boat.  They have won 5 of their last 10 games.  The Padres were dealt a death blow when Fernando Tatis Jr was suspended for the rest of this season and some of next season.  They had all their eggs in one basket… That basket was to pair Manny Machado and Juan Soto for a great duo… AND THEN add Fernando when he got off injury.  The last stretch of this season was supposed to be a sprint with an amazing trio.  That didn’t happen.  The leftover of that plan is of course that Manny and Juan will be the two best batters in this matchup by far… and they both hit for the Padres.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have won 4 of their last 10 games.  They are in the part of the season where they may experiment with the lineup or the rotation for next season.  That often has disastrous effects.  They went 1-2 against the Los Angeles Dodgers, 1-2 against the Colorado Rockies, 1-2 against the San Diego Padres, and  1-0 against the Milkwaukee Brewers.

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SDP:

ARI: 66-74. 275 ML, 65-70-5 O/U, 37-35 in home games.

  

The Padres are 16th in scoring with 4.36 runs per game, 19th in batting average with .240, and 9th in OBP with .319

The D-Backs are 13th in scoring with 4.45 runs per game, 24th in batting average with .232, and 21st in OBP with .309.

The Padres pitchers are 17th in ERA with 3.95, 9th in WHIP with 1.22, and the fielders rank 12th in errors with 69 on the season so far.

The D-Backs pitchers are 22nd in team ERA with 4.27, 20th in WHIP with 1.29, and the fielders are 18th in errors with 76 on the season so far.

 

Our prediction for Saturday, September 17th is… Padres 6 - D-Backs 3

The bet is for the Padres on the moneyline.  The Padres will still have the two best batters in the game… and will still have a slightly better set of bullpen numbers.  Combine the two and you get a 3 run win.  But stick to the moneyline.  

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Padres: 3B B Drury Out ** SS F Tatis Jr (suspended for drugs) Out

D-Backs: SS N Ahmed (shoulder) Out ** 

Padres: RHP Joe Musgrove, 3.28 ERA, 157 strikeouts in 159 innings pitched. 1.09 WHIP.  “Moose has struggled lately, but his numbers are still good enough to hang on for the bullpen relief.

Diamondbacks: RHP Zac Gallen, 12-2, 2.50 ERA, 163 strikeouts in 158 innings pitched.  0.91 WHIP.  Zac has the better numbers and is the D-Backs best option. Sadly he will not get the run support that the Padres starter will get off of the bullpen.

Padres: LF Jurickson Profar, RF Juan Soto, 3B Manny Machado, DH Josh Bell, 2B Jake Cronenworth, SS Ha-Seong Kim, 1B Will Myers, CF Trent Grisham, C Austin Nola

D-Backs: RF Daulton Varsho, CF Alek Thomas, LF Jake McCarthy, 1B Christian Walker, DH Ketel Marte, 3B Emmanuel Riveraz, 2B Wilmer Difo, C Cooper Hummel, SS Geraldo Perdomo

Padres: Bob “um ma ma” Melvin

D-Backs: Torey “this is fun” Lovullo

Sunny. Hot., 98*. ITS ARIZONA!  It will cool down with sunset, but not that much.  The humidity will only be 26% which will lead to balls being able to fly.  Wind at 7 mph… will feel like nothing,