Game Time: 9:00 PM ET, Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 

Venue:   Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado 

Where to Watch: NBA League Pass

DraftKings:  Spread:  Nuggets -7; O/U 234.5

Fanduel:  Spread:  Nuggets -7; O/U 234.5

BetMGM:  Spread: Nuggets -7.5

Spurs: 33-45, 10th place Western Conference

Nuggets: 47-32, 5th place Western Conference

An NBA Western Conference matchup between a playoff team and a play-in team.  The San Antonio Spurs just got great news… They are above the Los Angeles Lakers in the standings by 2 games with 4 games left to play… Oh and BTW… That gives the Lakers only a 2% chance of catching the Spurs and staying alive.  So if the Lakers are about to be mathematically eliminated and the Spurs are about to play a play-in game?... That means the Spurs could actually make a play-off series if they are able to beat the Timberwolves… oh… well, I guess it just means the Spurs will get 1 more game.  The Denver Nuggets don’t need good news as they are in the 5th spot in the West and are assured a play-off series if they just win a couple more games.  This team needs good news too… The Nuggets have the best Center in basketball in Nikola Jokic… yes he is better than Joel Embiid.  Whoever gets the MVP award does not change the numbers or the eye test.  Jokic can score, rebound, assist, block shots, hit his foul shots, and lead his team in FG% without even specifically trying.  Jokic is great.  However, even with Jokic they have struggled mightily because PF Michael Porter Jr went down for most of the season and SG Jamal  Murray.. They were the team’s #3 and #2 player respectively… These injuries are severe.. These injuries may end careers.  Jokic may be trapped for years on a squad that has nothing to help him. So any good news for Denver is good news.  We are going into an offseason where trading Nikola Jokic (while unthinkable) will be the only way to improve the roster… for the next decade.

The San Antonio Spurs have won 7 of their last ten games… They are 100% the reason that the Lakers will miss the play-in game.  They went 6-4 ATs during that stretch.  They are on a two-game winning streak.  They won their last game and the game before against the Portland Trail Blazers… A back to back win and win… both ATS as well.  The Nuggets are not the Trail Blazers.  The Spurs have a clear best player in PG Dejounte Murray who leads the team in points, assists, and steals 21.2 - 9.3 - 2.0.  Those are great numbers, they are first time all-star numbers… but he is listed as “probable” for the game against the Nuggets. He came down with a non-Covid illness and should be ready to go… but they are not 100% sure.  The Spurs at the moment are featuring SG Joshua Primo in the starting line-up… the 6’4 Canadian was billed as the same type of multi-talent as OKC’s Josh Giddey… He is not.  The result of that move is that SG Devin Vassell has moved to small forward and the Spurs lineup looks downright tiny.  PF Zach Collins has been playing center… and it is not his best moment… in fact Zach the 10th pick in 2017 has never lived up to his billing and will spend the next few years bouncing around the league until he bounces out.

The Denver Nuggets have won 6 of their last ten games.  They went 4-6 ATS during that stretch.  They are 4-1 during their last 5 however as the whol;e team gets used to simply letting C Nikola Jokic DO EVERYTHING.  It is a proposition that puts dread into below average Centers across the league… The Spurs heaven assortment of WAY BELOW average centers filling that spot.  The Spurs will go into the game giving up monster numbers on the blocks. 6’8 PF Aaron Gordon plays defense a little, but he certainly does not help much on offense.  His salary is drowning the Denver Nuggets in it’s ability to improve the roster.  This offseason will need to be spent looking for ways to move Gordon (maybe with a pick) to get anyone to help make Jokic’s job easier. Gordon seems like a fine player but backup SG Will Barton scores just as much.  I bet the Lakers would take Gordon and Barton and cap relief for AD… That would be a potential disaster, but if healthy AD and Jokic would be unstoppable…. And since Denver itself is never healthy… who cares?

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The Spurs are 33-45 on the season, but 40-37-1 ATS.  They have logged 37 Overs, 39 Unders, and 2 Push. They are 17-21 in road games.

The Nuggets are 47-32 on the season, but 35-43-1 ATS.  They have notched 43 Overs, 34 Unders, and 2 Push.  They are 22-16 in home games.

The Spurs are 8th in scoring with 113.2 ppg, 8th in rebounds with 45.5 per game, and 1st in AST/TO ratio with 2.2… Obviously these numbers are hampered if Dejounte Murray does not play. On defense they rank 24th while giving up 113.0 ppg from opponents.  They give up what they score.

The Nuggets are 10th in scoring with 112.4 ppg, 18th in rebounds with 44 per game, and 6th in AST/To ratio with 1.9.  On defense they rank 14th while allowing 109.9 ppg from opponents.  The difference on defense is actually very large.

Our prediction for Tuesday, April 5th is….  Nuggets 123 - Spurs 111

The Nuggets will run the Spurs out of the gym with Jokic scoring on the block and the Spurs having no answer for it.  Jokic has a shot at the MVP award and the Spurs are exactly the team that will allow him 35-14-8.

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San Antonio is 21-9 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 - 12 points the last 3 seasons.
San Antonio is 35-18 ATS versus Denver at Denver since 1996.
29 of 53 games in this series have gone Under since 1996.

Spurs: PG Dejounte Muray (ill) Prob ** C Jakob Poeltl (back) Quest ** SF Dylan McDermott (nose) Out ** C Jock Landale ( foot) Out 

Nuggets: SF JaMychal Green (personal) Quest ** PF Michael Porter Jr (back) Out

Spurs: SF Keldon Johnson, PF Devin Vassell, C Zach Collins, SG Joshua Primo, PG Tre Jones

Nuggets: SF JaMychal Green, PF Aaron Gordon, C Nikola Jokic, SG Will Barton, PG Monte Morris  

Spurs: Gregg Popovich

Nuggets: Michael Malone