Sam Houston State Bearkats vs New Mexico State Aggies Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 10/11/2023

Game Time: 9:00 pm ET, Wednesday, October 11, 2023

Venue:  Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM

Where to Watch:  CBS Sports

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  SHSU +3.5, NMSU -3.5; Over/Under:  43 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  SHSU +4, NMSU -4; Over/Under:  43 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  SHSU +3.5, NMSU -3.5; Over/Under:  43.5 points

Sam Houston State Bearkats:  0-5 (0-2) (9th place, C-USA)

New Mexico State Aggies:  3-3 (1-1) (5th place, C-USA)

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Sam Houston State Bearkats:  lost their last game on the road against the Liberty Flames 21-16.

New Mexico State Aggies:  won their last game at home against the Florida International Panthers 34-17.

Sam Houston State is entering this game with a 0-5 record overall and they have a 0-2 record in their conference games too. They are 0-1 in their home games, 0-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Liberty 21-16. Keegan Shoemaker was the starting QB and he completed 27/41 passes for 255 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Keegan Shoemaker led the team in rushing yards with 52. Noah Smith led the receivers with 97 receiving yards on 13 receptions. Trevor Williams led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while Chris Scott and Issiah Nixon each led the defense in sacks with 1. Jordan Morris came away with the only interception for them in that game.

 

 

 

New Mexico State is entering this game with a 3-3 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their conference games too. They are 2-1 in their home games, 1-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against FIU 34-17. Diego Pavia was the starting QB and he completed 20/31 passes for 256 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Ahmonte Watkins led the team in rushing yards with 89. Jordin Parker led the receivers with 49 receiving yards on 1 reception and 1 TD. Mehki Miller led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Izaiah Reed led the defense in sacks with 1.5. Torren Union and Andre Seldon each came away with 1 interception for them in that game.

The current betting odds have Sam Houston State listed as a 3.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Sam Houston State has been terrible this season with their 0-5 record overall and they are also 0-2 in their conference games too. They have been a lot better since hitting conference play though as they did lose their last 2 games but they have been much closer in score and the team has played a lot better in those games, losing both by just 1 score. New Mexico State has been really mediocre themselves this season with their 3-3 record overall and their 1-1 conference record. They finally put together a nice game at home in their last one as they beat FIU but they have struggled to string together multiple good games this year. Sam Houston State has also been improving a lot in their last 2 games and they are going to be the more desperate team here as they are still searching for their 1st win of the season. The best way to place a bet here is on Sam Houston State to cover the spread in this game.

Sam Houston State New Mexico State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Wednesday, October 11, 2023 (9:00 pm ET start time) is SHSU 24 NMSU 21.

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Sam Houston State Bearkats: 6-3 ATS as a road underdog. 4-2 ATS in all games. 3-0 UNDER when the total is between 42.5 and 49. 3-1 UNDER as a road underdog. 4-2 UNDER in all games.

New Mexico State Aggies: 47-75 ATS after playing a conference game. 14-25 ATS off a win against a conference rival. 3-7 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49. 5-1 UNDER off a home win. 5-1 UNDER after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. 

Sam Houston State Bearkats:  Z. Hrbacek (RB) Ques Wed - Leg. C. Crawford III (RB) Ques Wed - Undisclosed. I. Adeyi (WR) out for season - Undisclosed. Q. Humphreys (WR) Out indefinitely - Foot.

New Mexico State Aggies:  None.

“Keegan came out slinging and kept his poise. He used his feet and ran some sprint passes and he did a good job of finding the right receiver. We unfortunately burned a timeout on a replay. We still executed the two-minute offense to perfection. We spiked the ball at the end because we didn’t have enough time to get a play in.” - KC Keeler after his team’s loss against Liberty in their last game. 

“This game was critical for us. It gives us our first win in the conference. Our crowd did a heck of job of coming out and supporting us. Trying to get used to a Wednesday game, I’ve been part of this in the MAC before, and it’s hard. I’m proud of our young people. They played physical and they played hard. We played the way I said I want a Jerry Kill football team play. The only thing I didn’t like is that we didn’t play very smart. We’ll focus on that.” - Jerry Kill after his team’s win against FIU in their last game. 

WR Adeyi, Ife 

WR Woodard, Al'vonte 

WR Smith, Noah 

TE Sohn, Elijah 

QB Gunnell, Grant  

RB Hrbacek, Zach 

WR Bellamy, Chris  

WR David, Kordell 

WR Brady, Jonathan 

TE Whitford, Thomaz 

QB Pavia, Diego 

RB Jones, Jamoni 

Passing: K. Shoemaker (731)

Rushing: J. Gentry (141)

Receiving: N. Smith (253)

Touchdowns: T. Pannell (3)

Passing: D. Pavia (1329)

Rushing: D. Pavia (316)

Receiving: J. Brady (273)

Touchdowns: S. Thomas (5)

Coaches:

Sam Houston State Bearkats: K.C. Keeler (9th season)

New Mexico State Aggies: Jerry Kill (2nd season)