Sam Houston State Bearkats vs Liberty Flames Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 10/05/2023

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Thursday, October 5, 2023

Venue:  Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, VA

Where to Watch:  CBS Sports

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  SHSU +18, Liberty -18; Over/Under:  47.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  SHSU +17.5, Liberty -17.5; Over/Under:  47.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  SHSU +17.5, Liberty -17.5; Over/Under:  47.5 points

Sam Houston State Bearkats:  0-4 (0-1) (9th place, C-USA)

Liberty Flames:  4-0 (2-0) (1st place, C-USA)

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Sam Houston State Bearkats:  lost their last game at home against the Jacksonville State Gamecocks in overtime 35-28.

Liberty Flames:  won their last game on the road against the Florida International Panthers 38-6.

Sam Houston State is entering this game with a 0-4 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their conference games too. They are 0-1 in their home games, 0-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Jacksonville State in OT 35-28. Keegan Shoemaker was the starting QB and he completed 22/38 passes for 285 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. John Gentry led the team in rushing yards with 97. Noah Smith led the receivers with 97 receiving yards on 10 receptions and 1 TD. Trevor Williams led the defense in that game with 10 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Akeem Smith led the defense in sacks with 1. Da'Marcus Crosby came away with the only interception for them in that game.

 

 

 

Liberty is entering this game with a 4-0 record overall and they have a 2-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against FIU 38-6. Kaidon Salter was the starting QB and he completed 11/21 passes for 156 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Billy Lucas led the team in rushing yards with 102 and 1 TD. Treon Sibley led the receivers with 83 receiving yards on 2 receptions and 1 TD. Tyren Dupree led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Tyren Dupree, Tysheik Galloway, CJ Bazile Jr., Kendy Charles, and Eliyt Nairne each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.

The current betting odds have Liberty listed as an 18 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Liberty is 4-0 this season and they have looked really good in their games as they are already 2-0 in conference play too. They have been blowing teams out in their games and are really out to prove they are the best team in the conference in only their 1st year being in it. Sam Houston State is still searching for their 1st win of the season as they are 0-4 this year and they haven't looked good in their games either. Their offense finally showed some life in their last game but they suffered a crushing loss at home in a game they were leading in and now they have to go on the road again against a much better team and their offense has looked terrible in all of their other games. They haven't been able to do much on offense in their road games this year and with the way their defense played against Jacksonville State in their last game, Liberty is going to put up a ton of points in this game and Sam Houston State won't have the offense to match it. The best way to place a bet here is on Liberty to cover the spread in this game.

Sam Houston State Liberty Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Thursday, October 5, 2023 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Liberty 45 SHSU 10.

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Sam Houston State Bearkats: 1-4 ATS after playing a game at home. 1-4 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. 4-1 OVER after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. 4-1 OVER when playing with 6 or less days rest.

Liberty Flames: 50-26 ATS in all games. 21-9 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders. 10-3 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 24-15 OVER as a favorite. 9-5 OVER off a road win. 9-5 OVER off 1 or more consecutive unders.

Sam Houston State Bearkats:  I. Adeyi (WR) out for season - Undisclosed. Z. Hrbacek (RB) Ques Wed - Leg. C. Crawford III (RB) Ques Wed - Undisclosed. Q. Humphreys (WR) Out indefinitely - Foot.

Liberty Flames:  V. Blue (RB) Out indefinitely - Upper Body. B. Schlitter (OL) out for season - Lower Body. J. Jenkins (TE) out for season - Eligibility. V. Jones Jr. (WR) out for season - Knee. R. Smith (WR) out for season - Knee.

“We couldn’t tell where the ball was. We thought we might be in field goal range. (Phillips) went out of bounds across the field and we couldn’t get a real idea spot-wise, and I said to the official, ‘You should probably give us a chance to talk,’ because we couldn’t even tell where the ball was. We thought we were in field goal range. We thought the ball went out like at the 40. This kid has a strong leg. We would have shot it from 57 and that wouldn’t bother us, but all of a sudden we saw the ball was out at the 50 or wherever it was.” - KC Keeler after his team’s loss against JSU in their last game. 

“First of all, actually excited about (midweek games). Obviously, it is unique to play on Thursdays and Tuesdays, but to have that opportunity to be able to be on television, get your brand out, showcase your players, showcase your university, I think is a positive. If you have to play it any day, I think it’s great to be on TV because players want to do that.” - Jamey Chadwell on his team’s upcoming game against Sam Houston State this week.

WR Adeyi, Ife 

WR Woodard, Al'vonte 

WR Smith, Noah 

TE Sohn, Elijah 

QB Gunnell, Grant  

RB Hrbacek, Zach 

WR Sibley, Treon  

WR Frith, Noah 

WR Smoot, Elijah  

TE Hanshaw, Bentley 

QB Salter, Kaidon 

RB Blue, Vaughn 

RB Cooley, Quinton 

Passing: K. Shoemaker (476)

Rushing: J. Gentry (133)

Receiving: N. Smith (156)

Touchdowns: T. Pannell (3)

Passing: K. Salter (919)

Rushing: Q. Cooley (323)

Receiving: T. Sibley (288)

Touchdowns: K. Salter (5)

Coaches:

Sam Houston State Bearkats: K.C. Keeler (9th season)

Liberty Flames: Jamey Chadwell (1st season)