Saint Mary's Gaels vs. San Francisco Dons Prediction & Game Preview - 1/27/2022

Time: 10 p.m. ET

Venue: War Memorial at the Sobrato Center, San Francisco, CA

Where to watch: TBD

DraftKings: San Francisco -3.5

BetMGM: San Francisco -3.5

Caesars: San Francisco -3.5

Saint Mary's: 15-4 (3-1 WCC)

San Francisco: 16-4 (3-2 WCC)

In what might be the game of the week in the West Coast conference, I am leaning toward the Saint Mary's Gaels to pull off the upset against the San Francisco Dons on Thursday.

When you're trying to find teams that can contend with the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the WCC, you're hard pressed to find a relatively competitive bunch. But when you look at Saint Mary's and when you look at SF, and when you even look at BYU, the WCC has more competition now than probably the last 10-15 years.

SF was expected to be one of those teams that would actually contend in the top 25. Unfortunately for the Dons, they have lost two of their last three, including a loss to the Bulldogs.

The Dons rebounded in their most recent game, winning by 26 points against the Pepperdine Waves. Julian Rishwain had a game-high 20 points in just 23 minutes off the bench to combat a rough shooting night for the rest of his team.

Saint Mary's meanwhile has won three straight games two of them by double digits. The Gaels most recent win was a 32 point victory against Loyola Marymount. Alex Ducas had a game-high 22 points in the sound defeat, shooting 9 of 14 from the floor.

We can spend an enormous amount of time trying to decipher which teams are actually separating themselves from the pack and which teams can contend with Gonzaga. These two may be at the top of that list, but when you look at the Dons and how they lost by 16 points to Gonzaga, and when you see Saint Mary’s losing by 9 at BYU, the question now becomes can these teams actually go on the road in big moments and win a game?

If it comes down to defense, you can bet on the Gaels. They’re 7-1 against the spread this season when the total is between 120 and 129.5. It’s an athletic team that can win a multitude of ways; defense is one of them. You get Saint Mary’s at a full 100-foot game, it gets ridiculous.

The Gaels are also 6-0 ATS when playing their second game in a week, which bodes well for the stamina and the willingness to win games at all times.

San Francisco, meanwhile, is just 5-7 against the spread as a home favorite or a pick, while 11-1 straight up. Given the low line, the odds of that number improving in the ATS category is quite realistic. But I just don’t think the Dons are ready for primetime. Saint Mary’s by 7

Saint Mary's is 5-1 ATS in its last six.

The under is 8-2-1 in Saint Mary's last 11 against a team with a winning percentage above .600.

San Francisco is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 following an ATS win.

PG: Logan Johnson

SG: Augustas Marcliulionis
SF: Alex Ducas
PF: Kyle Bowen
C: Matthias Tass

PG: Khalil Shabazz

SG: Jamaree Bouyea
SF: Gabe Stefanini
PF: Patrick Tape
C: Yauhen Massalski