by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Feb 16, 2023
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Venue: Jenny Craig Pavilion, San Diego, CA
Where to watch: TBD
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Saint Mary's -13.5
FanDuel: Saint Mary's -13.5
BetMGM: Saint Mary's -13.5
Caesars: Saint Mary's -13.5
Season record
No. 17 Saint Mary's: 22-5 (11-1 WCC)
San Diego: 11-16 (4-9 WCC)
February is here and the college basketball season is taking full shape. Conference races still to be determined, the top 25 completely in shambles for what seems like every week, and there's bound to be an upset what seems like every single week. But as the season continues to progress with what seems like exciting action every week, you know our champion handicappers continue to put the work in each and every week to not only make money for them, but to ensure you get money in your pocket. All you need to do is look at the last 30 days. Scott Rickenbach has reeled in a net profit of $14,000 with a 24-9-0 run on the college hardwood. Team Del Genio has killed it with a 13-1-0 run at +$11,900. Will Rogers (28-15-0) and Matt Fargo (40-27-0) have also seen five figures over the last 30 days with college basketball. Surely, you want to get on this winning as well. All you need to do is go to bigal.com, check out our Best Bets page and make sure you are following along on the action. March will be here before you know it! Take advantage of our best best plays and find out what our champion handicappers are doing at bigal.com!
Saint Mary's - San Diego preview, prediction and analysis
Recent form
SMC: won 81-64 at Portland
San Diego: lost 99-94 at Pacific
This road trip for the Saint Mary's Gaels has so far worked out as well as you would expect. Saint Mary's got a rather easy victory over Portland the other day and we'll now try to continue that good luck against a team in San Diego that is not been the best team in the West Coast conference this year.
This road trip for the Saint Mary's Gaels has so far worked out as well as you would expect. Saint Mary's got a rather easy victory over Portland the other day and we'll now try to continue that good luck against a team in San Diego that is not been the best team in the West Coast conference this year.
I think what we need to understand from the West Coast conference in a nutshell is that we know at the top that St. Mary's and Gonzaga are the top two teams in that conference. Nothing is a surprise in that regard. But I think what we've learned over the last few weeks is that there are some teams that will challenge them. Loyola Marymount is the one that comes to mind after beating both Gonzaga and St. Mary's this year. Whether that translates to the conference championship tournament remains to be seen. But St. Mary's absolutely did get a nice rebound victory over Portland the other day 81-64 after losing to LMU a week ago.
“Sometimes, you’ve got to make shots,” Saint Mary’s head coach Randy Bennett said of the second-half turnaround. “We came out and banged a few threes, separated, gave us a little wiggle room. You don’t feel like every possession is for the game.”
And you don't need to look any further than Logan Johnson absolutely annihilating the Portland defense. The guard shot 11 of 18 from the floor and had 34 points to go with six rebounds and six assists to help pace the St. Mary's offense. The Gaels allowed 50 percent shooting despite shooting 44.4, but 15 of 32 from the 3-point line was the major difference here.
“We started playing our brand of basketball,” Johnson said. “Started getting stops, consecutive stops, rebounding, not allowing offensive boards. When we do that, when we play to our strengths, there’s not a lot of teams that can have the capacity to keep going and keep trying to attack that. It gets frustrating and you start to see it on their faces.”
Not much has changed in terms of Saint Mary’s positioning in the conference. They’re still ahead of the Zags for first place with the second meeting in Spokane on the horizon. Aidan Mahaney still leads this group at 15.1 points per game. If Johnson is putting this kind of performance up and can keep it up with Mahaney having a pedestrian night, that should benefit SMC well.
Prediction
The favorite has covered in four straight meetings, but the home team has succeeded in 5-1 against the spread in the last six. I can see San Diego covering since their last three games have been decided by single digits. But the Gaels get it done. Saint Mary’s 82, San Diego 73
Betting trends
Saint Mary's is 88-56 ATS as a road favorite or pick since 1997.
Saint Mary's is 12-2 ATS after giving up 5 offensive rebounds or less this season.
San Diego is 3-11 ATS in February the last 3 seasons.
Projected starting lineup
Saint Mary's:
PG: Logan Johnson
SG: Aidan Mahaney
SF: Alex Ducas
PF: Kyle Bowen
C: Mitchell Saxen
San Diego:
PG: Deuce Turner
SG: Wayne McKinney III
SF: Sigu Sisoho
PF: Jase Townsend
C: Marcellus Earlington
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
