Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/05/2026

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Thursday, March 5, 2026

Venue:  Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI

Where to Watch:  Fox Sports 1

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Rutgers +19.5, MSU -19.5; Over/Under:  143.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Rutgers +19.5, MSU -19.5; Over/Under:  143.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Rutgers +19.5, MSU -19.5; Over/Under:  143.5 points

Rutgers Scarlet Knights:  12-17 (5-13) (14th place, Big Ten)

Michigan State Spartans:  24-5 (14-4) (2nd place, Big Ten)

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Rutgers Scarlet Knights:  3-2  last 5

Michigan State Spartans:  4-1  last 5

Rutgers is entering this game with a 12-17 record overall, a 5-13 record in conference games, and they are 2-8 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Maryland Terrapins in their last game. Tariq Francis led the team in points in that game with 19 while Darren Buchanan Jr. was next on the team with 14. Tariq Francis led the team in assists with 4 in that game while Darren Buchanan Jr. led the team in rebounds with 7. They were 39.7% from the field, 23.5% from 3-point range, and 82.6% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 70.2 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 75.4 PPG against them. Rutgers has an ATS record of 14-15 this season and their O/U record is 17-12.

Michigan State is entering this game with a 24-5 record overall, a 14-4 conference record, and they are 14-2 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Indiana Hoosiers in their last game. Jaxon Kohler and Jeremy Fears Jr. each led the team in points in that game with 21 while Kur Teng was next on the team with 18. Jeremy Fears Jr. led the team in assists with 9 in that game while Jaxon Kohler led the team in rebounds with 13. They were 49% from the field, 50% from 3-point range, and 78.9% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 78.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 66.3 PPG against them. Michigan State has an ATS record of 14-13-2 this season and their O/U record is 12-17.

The current betting odds have Michigan State listed as a 19.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Michigan State has looked really good in their games this season with their 24-5 record overall and their 14-4 conference record which has them right near the top of the Big Ten. They have looked great on their home court too with their 14-2 home record this season. Meanwhile, Rutgers has looked terrible in their games this season with their 12-17 record overall and their 5-13 conference record which has them in the bottom half of the Big Ten. They have been a terrible road team too with their 2-8 road record this year. Rutgers is off a win over Maryland in their last one, but they have been one of the worst teams in the Big Ten all season and haven't looked great lately either. They are 3-2 in their last 5 games and have had some trouble against bad opponents, but they have also been getting crushed by top teams in the conference all year. Now they are playing another top team in the conference and Michigan State has been rolling lately with some momentum on their side. Michigan State went through a bit of a bad stretch with a tougher schedule, but they have won 4 games in a row now and have picked up some good wins during that time. They have also been crushing opponents on their home court all season and as bad as Rutgers has been this year, they almost beat Michigan State at home a few weeks ago so Michigan State won't be overlooking them again. Look for Michigan State to continue rolling at home against one of the worst teams in the Big Ten and carry that momentum in their regular season finale against Michigan. The best way to place a bet here is on Michigan State to cover the spread in this game. 

Rutgers Michigan State Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Thursday, March 5, 2026 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Michigan State 88 Rutgers 66.

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Rutgers Scarlet Knights: 1-5 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent. 14-33 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game. 14-26 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins. 10-5 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%).

Michigan State Spartans: 29-18 ATS as a home favorite or pick. 11-4 ATS off a road win against a conference rival. 20-6 ATS after playing a road game. 11-6 1H OVER versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 45% or more.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights:  L. Mark (G) Questionable - Undisclosed. G. Ware (C) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Fall (C) Out - Hand. D. Jones (G) Out - Redshirt.

Michigan State Spartans:  D. Ugochukwu (G) Out - Foot. K. Glenn (F) Out - Knee.

"Couldn't be more proud. When adversity hit, we stepped up and we made every free throw down the stretch except for the one I told J-Mike to miss at the end. Our defense was outstanding for the first 20 minutes, as good as we've played. We forced them into almost 20 turnovers, which is probably a season high for them. I thought we were locked in and did what we needed to do in the second half just to finish the game off." - Steve Pikiell after his team’s win against Maryland in their last game. 

"Well, to be honest with you, for once, we got off to a good start. We haven't been doing that. We decided to try to go inside, Kohler (had) been struggling, we thought we'd try to get him going. We get that 10-point lead and it kind of stayed that way. We did not do a great job of building on it, it's because they're a good team. Everybody asks me, 'Are they good enough to be in the (NCAA) Tournament?' Read my lips: hell yes. It's just that somebody's gotta lose some of these games. The league is so good.” - Tom Izzo after his team’s win against Indiana in their last game. 

D. Badalau 

J. Davis 

T. Francis 

D. Grant 

E. Ogbole

C. Carr 

C. Cooper 

J. Fears 

J. Kohler 

D. Ugochukwu

PPG: Tariq Francis (16.6)

APG: Tariq Francis (2.8)

Reb/G: Emmanuel Ogbole (6.2)

PPG: Jeremy Fears Jr. (15.1)

APG: Jeremy Fears Jr. (9.1)

Reb/G: Jaxon Kohler (9.2)

Coaches:

Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Steve Pikiell (10th season)

Michigan State Spartans: Tom Izzo (31st season)