Rice Owls vs Texas State Bobcats Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 01/02/2026

Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Friday, January 2, 2026

Venue:  Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Rice +13.5, Texas State -13.5; Over/Under:  58.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Rice +13, Texas State -13; Over/Under:  58.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Rice +12.5, Texas State -12.5; Over/Under:  58.5 points

Rice Owls:  5-7 (2-6) (11th place, American)

Texas State Bobcats:  6-6 (3-5) (5th place, Sun Belt West)

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Rice Owls:  lost their last game on the road against the South Florida Bulls 52-3.

Texas State Bobcats:  won their last game at home against the South Alabama Jaguars 49-26.

Rice is entering this game with a 5-7 record overall and they have a 2-6 record in their conference games too. They are 3-4 in their home games, 2-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, and they will be at a neutral site for this game. They lost their last game against South Florida 52-3. Chase Jenkins was the starting QB and he completed 6/9 passes for 39 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Tyvonn Byars led the team in rushing yards with 46. Aaron Turner led the receivers with 99 receiving yards on 7 receptions. Jo Chavez led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 8 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Texas State is entering this game with a 6-6 record overall and they have a 3-5 record in their conference games too. They are 4-2 in their home games, 2-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against South Alabama 49-26. Brad Jackson was the starting QB and he completed 20/26 passes for 280 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Brad Jackson led the team in rushing yards with 113 and 3 TDs. Chris Dawn Jr. led the receivers with 154 receiving yards on 8 receptions. Terrence Cooks Jr. led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Kalil Alexander and Kenard Snyder each led the defense in sacks with 1. Jaden Rios came away with the only interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Texas State listed as a 13.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Texas State has looked good in their games this season with their 6-6 record overall, but their 3-5 conference record had them lower in their division of the SBC. They haven't played in a neutral site game this season so this will be their first, playing in the Armed Forces Bowl. Meanwhile, Rice hasn't looked good in their games this season with their 5-7 record overall and their 2-6 conference record which had them right near the bottom of the American Conference. This will also be their first neutral site game this season. Rice wasn't a good team this season and they didn't look great to end the regular season either. They have lost 2 games in a row now and are off a 52-3 loss to South Florida in their last one. They didn't earn a spot in this bowl game either, but they are here due to other teams opting out of the opportunity. Rice will be looking to make the most of their opportunity here, but they don't have a very talented team this year, especially on offense as they struggled to put up points in a lot of their games, and their defense didn't look any better with the number of points they have been giving up. Texas State didn't have a great season either, but they did earn their spot in this game and were looking very good in their final games of the regular season. They ended the year with 3 wins in a row and they are off a 49-26 win over South Alabama in their last one which secured their spot in a bowl game this year. Texas State is the more talented team and looked really good to finish the season, look for them to continue that with another win in this final game. The best way to place a bet here is on Texas State to cover the spread in this game. 

Rice Texas State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Friday, January 2, 2026 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Texas State 49 Rice 10.

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Rice Owls: 7-2 ATS after allowing 37 points or more last game. 8-3 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. 8-4 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play or more. 7-4 OVER vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. 5-0 OVER when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest.

Texas State Bobcats: 2-6 ATS vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game. 1-6 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att. 4-7 ATS after a win by 17 or more points. 14-6 OVER when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 12-5 OVER after playing a game at home.

Rice Owls:  B. Walker (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. L. Ransom-Goelz (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. L. Needham (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Morgan (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Morgan (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. L. Johnson (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Hook (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Green (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. E. Dotson (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Daley (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Crump (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. O. Carter (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Bruce (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Bowling (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Blanton (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Baur (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Balthazar (WR) Out - Undisclosed.

Texas State Bobcats:  B. Carter (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed.

"I am thrilled to have another opportunity to coach this group of young men this year. Having two more weeks of practice is invaluable as we continue to grow this program. The fact that our seniors have the opportunity to end their career with a bowl championship is truly special." - Scott Abell on his team playing in the Armed Forces Bowl.

“That’s the tough part about this business, and the tough part about the chair that I sit in. Me and Dex go back a long way, and we’re extremely close. So that one for me was really tough.” - G.J. Kinne on making a change to their defensive coordinator.

WR Matthews, Payton

WR Dickmann, Drayden

WR Turner, Aaron

TE Barnett, Micah

QB Jenkins, Chase

RB Jackson, Quinton

WR Sparks, Beau

WR Dawn Jr., Chris

WR Evans, Kylen

TE Smith, Blake

QB Jackson, Brad

RB Pare, Lincoln

Passing: Chase Jenkins (1,026)

Rushing: Quinton Jackson (811)

Receiving: Aaron Turner (374)

Touchdowns: Quinton Jackson (7)

Passing: Brad Jackson (3,050)

Rushing: Lincoln Pare (1,022)

Receiving: Beau Sparks (1,113)

Touchdowns: Brad Jackson (16)

Coaches:

Rice Owls: Scott Abell (1st season)

Texas State Bobcats: G.J. Kinne (3rd season)