by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Wednesday, Dec 15, 2021
Game Time: 3:00 pm ET, Thursday, December 30, 2021
Venue: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Purdue +4.5, Tennessee -4.5; Over/Under: 64 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Purdue +4.5, Tennessee -4.5; Over/Under: 63 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Purdue +3.5, Tennessee -3.5; Over/Under: 63 points
Season Record
Purdue Boilermakers: 8-4 (4th place, Big Ten West)
Tennessee Volunteers: 7-5 (3rd place, SEC East)
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Purdue Boilermakers vs Tennessee Volunteers Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Purdue Boilermakers: won at home on Nov. 27 against the Indiana Hoosiers 44-7.
Tennessee Volunteers: won at home on Nov. 27 against the Vanderbilt Commodores 45-21.
Purdue Boilermakers Analysis
Purdue is coming into this game after finishing the season with an 8-4 record overall and they are 1-0 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They have won 4 of their last 5 games and are coming into this one on a 2 game winning streak after another win in their last game. Their last loss was against the Ohio State Buckeyes while their 4 wins in that span came against the Nebraska Cornhuskers, the Michigan State Spartans, the Northwestern Wildcats, and the Indiana Hoosiers in their last game. Aidan O'Connell completed 26/31 passes for 277 yards and 4 touchdowns. Alexander Horvath led the team in rushing with 49 yards and 1 touchdown on 15 carries while King Doerue also had 49 yards rushing on 4 carries. Dylan Downing ran in the other TD on the ground in that one. David Bell led the receivers with 79 yards and 1 touchdown on 6 receptions while Jackson Anthrop had 63 yards and 1 touchdown on 4 receptions. Milton Wright also led the team in receptions with 6 for 53 yards while TJ Sheffield and Paul Piferi both caught the other touchdown passes in that one with 1 each. Jaylan Alexander led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles. Branson Deen, DaMarcus Mitchell, Kydran Jenkins, and George Karlaftis all recorded the only sacks in that game with 1 each while Jacob Wahlberg came up with the only interception in that one. They have scored 330 points in their 12 games this season averaging 27.5 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 246 points against them allowing 20.5 PPG. Their offense is averaging 424.8 YPG while their defense is allowing 342.9 YPG.
Tennessee Volunteers Analysis
Tennessee is coming into this game after finishing the season with a 7-5 record overall and they will be playing their first neutral site game of the season in this game. They have won 3 of their last 4 games and are coming into this one on a 2 game winning streak after another win in their last game. Their last loss was against the Georgia Bulldogs while their 3 wins in that span came against the Kentucky Wildcats, the South Alabama Jaguars, and the Vanderbilt Commodores in their last game. Hendon Hooker completed 10/18 passes for 156 yards and 2 touchdowns in that one. Jaylen Wright had a nice day on the ground as he led the team in rushing with 112 yards and 1 touchdown on 15 carries while Jabari Small had 103 yards and 2 touchdowns on 15 carries. Cedric Tillman also had a nice day as he led the receivers with 106 yards and 2 touchdowns on 6 receptions. Warren Burrell led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted ones. Byron Young and Jaylen McCollough both recorded the only sacks in that game with 1 each while Theo Jackson was the only one to come up with an interception for them in that one. They have scored 466 points in their 12 games this season averaging 38.8 PPG and they have allowed 330 points against them allowing 27.5 PPG. Their offense is averaging 458.7 YPG while their defense is allowing 404.6 YPG.
Purdue vs Tennessee Prediction
Purdue is coming into this Music City Bowl as a 4.5 point underdog with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Purdue had a very nice season and they played well in most of their games this year. They finished their season off playing very well winning 4 of their last 5 games. Tennessee also finished their season off with 3 wins in their last 4 games but their schedule was much weaker than Purdue's was. Tennessee faced Vandy and South Alabama in their last 2 games with Georgia being the one good team they played and they lost that game. Purdue knocked off some big names this season on their schedule, taking down the ranked Iowa and Michigan State teams. Purdue will want to cap off their great season with a win in their bowl game here. The best bet to place in this game is on Purdue to cover the spread here as they have a good chance at upsetting in this game and winning straight up on the moneyline.
Purdue Tennessee Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Thursday, December 30, 2021 (3:00 pm ET start time) is Purdue 27 Tennessee 24.
Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Purdue Boilermakers Tennessee Volunteers prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NCAAF predictions and previews.
NCAAF Betting Trends
Purdue Boilermakers: 9-5 O/U in a bowl game. 7-3 O/U in minor bowl games (played in December). 5-2 O/U when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 7-2 O/U as a neutral field underdog. 10-5 O/U after playing 3 straight conference games. 8-4 O/U in December games.
Tennessee Volunteers: 9-3 O/U in all games. 5-1 O/U as a favorite. 13-7 O/U as a neutral field favorite. 6-1 O/U after playing a conference game. 7-3 O/U in games played on a grass field. 5-1 O/U after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. 6-0 O/U after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread. 8-1 O/U after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers.
Key Injuries
Purdue Boilermakers: G. Karlaftis (DE) Out Dec 30 - Personal. D. Bell (WR) Out Dec 30 - Personal. J. Cross (RB) Out indefinitely - Personal.
Tennessee Volunteers: T. Evans (RB) Ques Dec 30 - Undisclosed injury. H. Hooker (QB) Ques Dec 30 - Hand injury. K. Harris (OL) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed injury. J. Mitchell (LB) out for season - Undisclosed injury.
Notable Quotes
"It was a great day to be a Boilermaker. It's a big win. We challenged our guy to come out and play a better second half. We thought we were a little sloppy in the first half and we did." - Jeff Brohm on his team’s win against Indiana in their last game of the regular season.
"From the time I got here, with all the uncertainty, (the veterans) formed a rock-solid foundation. Our players grew throughout the season. They're great competitors, which is the first thing you have to have.” Josh Heupel on his team’s season after a win against Vanderbilt to close out their regular season.
Starting Lineups
Purdue Boilermakers
WR Anthrop, Jackson
WR Wright, Milton
WR Thompson, Broc
TE Durham, Payne
QB O'Connell, Aidan
RB Doerue, King
Tennessee Volunteers
WR Payton, JaVonta
WR Tillman, Cedric
WR Jones Jr., Velus
TE Warren, Jacob
QB Hooker, Hendon
RB Small, Jabari
Statistical Leaders
Purdue Boilermakers
Passing: A. O'Connell (3178)
Rushing: K. Doerue (488)
Receiving: D. Bell (1286)
Touchdowns: M. Wright (7)
Tennessee Volunteers
Passing: H. Hooker (2567)
Rushing: J. Small (611)
Receiving: C. Tillman (931)
Touchdowns: C. Tillman (9)
Coaches:
Purdue Boilermakers: Jeff Brohm (5th season)
Tennessee Volunteers: Josh Heupel (1st season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
