Purdue Boilermakers vs Northwestern Wildcats Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/04/2026

Game Time: 8:30 pm ET, Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Venue:  Welsh Ryan Arena, Evanston, IL

Where to Watch:  Big Ten Network

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Purdue -8.5, Northwestern +8.5; Over/Under:  145.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Purdue -8.5, Northwestern +8.5; Over/Under:  145.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Purdue -8.5, Northwestern +8.5; Over/Under:  145.5 points

Purdue Boilermakers:  22-7 (12-6) (5th place, Big Ten)

Northwestern Wildcats:  13-16 (5-13) (15th place, Big Ten)

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Purdue Boilermakers:  2-3  last 5

Northwestern Wildcats:  3-2  last 5

Purdue is entering this game with a 22-7 record overall, a 12-6 record in conference games, and they are 7-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Ohio State Buckeyes in their last game. Braden Smith led the team in points in that game with 20 while Trey Kaufman-Renn was next on the team with 19. Braden Smith led the team in assists with 7 in that game while Trey Kaufman-Renn led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 44.4% from the field, 37.9% from 3-point range, and 70% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 82.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 69.9 PPG against them. Purdue has an ATS record of 13-16 this season and their O/U record is 15-14.

Northwestern is entering this game with a 13-16 record overall, a 5-13 conference record, and they are 9-6 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Oregon Ducks in their last game. Nick Martinelli led the team in points in that game with 22 while Jayden Reid was next on the team with 11. Nick Martinelli and Jayden Reid each led the team in assists with 7 in that game while Nick Martinelli led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 44.6% from the field, 25% from 3-point range, and 75% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 73.7 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 72.5 PPG against them. Northwestern has an ATS record of 11-16-2 this season and their O/U record is 14-14-1.

The current betting odds have Purdue listed as an 8.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Purdue has looked good in their games this season with their 22-7 record overall and their 12-6 conference record which has them in the top half of the Big Ten. They have been a good road team too with their 7-3 road record this year. Meanwhile, Northwestern hasn't looked good in their games this season with their 13-16 record overall and their 5-13 conference record which has them in the bottom half of the Big Ten. They have looked better on their home court though with their 9-6 home record this season. They have looked a lot better in their home games this year, but they still haven't been a great home team. They are 3-2 in their last 5 games and haven't looked bad lately with 3 wins in a row now, but they have also been one of the worst teams in the Big Ten all season and have been beating up on those bad teams lately. Purdue has looked terrible lately as they are 2-3 in their last 5 games and they have lost 2 games in a row now, coming off a bad loss to Ohio State in their last one too, but they have still been one of the best teams in the Big Ten this season and they will be looking to bounce back in a big way here. Purdue still has a really talented team that is going to bring their best effort to bounce back and Northwestern just doesn't have the talent to compete, even being at home. Look for Purdue to bounce back and take out their frustrations on this Northwestern team that has had trouble in the Big Ten all year. The best way to place a bet here is on Purdue to cover the spread in this game. 

Purdue Northwestern Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Wednesday, March 4, 2026 (8:30 pm ET start time) is Purdue 87 Northwestern 60.

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Purdue Boilermakers: 26-17 ATS on the road as a favorite. 24-16 ATS on the road versus good shooting teams - making 45% of their shots or more. 25-18 ATS on the road versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 turnovers/game or less. 5-1 OVER off an upset loss as a road favorite.

Northwestern Wildcats: 3-6 ATS in a home game where the total is 140 to 149.5. 3-9 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game. 5-10 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game. 26-12 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%).

Purdue Boilermakers:  None.

Northwestern Wildcats:  None.

"We come in and out of our focus and concentration. We make good plays, we do good things, and then we don't. We are the king of — we will guard you in the same action, and then we'll turn around and guard the same action after that, and we don't do what we're supposed to." - Matt Painter after his team’s loss against OSU in their last game. 

"We told him to take his time and get to his spot. He wants that shot. It's almost fitting that it was his patented flipper." - Chris Collins after his team’s win against Oregon in their last game. 

O. Cluff 

C. Cox 

T. Kaufman-Renn 

F. Loyer 

B. Smith

A. Ciaravino 

N. Martinelli 

A. Page 

J. Reid 

T. Singleton

PPG: Braden Smith (15)

APG: Braden Smith (8.7)

Reb/G: Trey Kaufman-Renn (8.9)

PPG: Nick Martinelli (22.5)

APG: Jayden Reid (4.9)

Reb/G: Nick Martinelli (6.3)

Coaches:

Purdue Boilermakers: Matt Painter (21st season)

Northwestern Wildcats: Chris Collins (13th season)