by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2025
Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 1, 2025
Venue: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
Where to Watch: Big Ten Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Purdue +21, Michigan -21; Over/Under: 50.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Purdue +21, Michigan -21; Over/Under: 50 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Purdue +21, Michigan -21; Over/Under: 50.5 points
Season Record
Purdue Boilermakers: 2-6 (0-5) (17th place, Big Ten)
Michigan Wolverines: 6-2 (4-1) (5th place, Big Ten)
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Recent Form
Purdue Boilermakers: lost their last game at home against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights 27-24.
Michigan Wolverines: won their last game on the road against the Michigan State Spartans 31-20.
Purdue Boilermakers vs Michigan Wolverines Preview and Analysis
Purdue is entering this game with a 2-6 record overall and they have a 0-5 record in their conference games too. They are 2-3 in their home games, 0-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Rutgers 27-24. Ryan Browne was the starting QB and he completed 11/20 passes for 117 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Devin Mockobee led the team in rushing yards with 91. Malachi Thomas led the receivers with 50 receiving yards on 3 receptions and 1 TD. Tahj Ra-El led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while CJ Nunnally IV, Hershey McLaurin, Trey Smith, and Jamarrion Harkless each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Michigan is entering this game with a 6-2 record overall and they have a 4-1 record in their conference games too. They are 4-0 in their home games, 2-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Michigan State 31-20. Bryce Underwood was the starting QB and he completed 8/17 passes for 86 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Justice Haynes led the team in rushing yards with 152 and 2 TDs. Andrew Marsh led the receivers with 54 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Jimmy Rolder led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Derrick Moore led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Purdue vs Michigan Prediction
The current betting odds have Michigan listed as a 21 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Michigan has looked good in their games this season with their 6-2 record overall and their 4-1 conference record which has them right near the top of the Big Ten. They are off a 31-20 road win over Michigan State in their last one and they have looked better and better as the season has gone on. They have also looked a lot better on their home field this year with their 4-0 home record. Meanwhile, Purdue has looked terrible in their games this season with their 2-6 record overall and their 0-5 conference record which has them right near the bottom of the Big Ten. They are off a 27-24 loss at home to Rutgers in their last one and they did everything in their power to lose that one. They have been an even worse road team this year with their 0-3 road record and their offense hasn't been able to put up many points against better defenses. Their defense has also been terrible as they have been giving up a ton of points all season, and this Michigan offense has looked a lot better at home this year so they aren't going to keep them off the board. Michigan will be able to pull away throughout this game as Purdue struggles against their defense, and they are going to bring a great effort since they are still alive to make the CFP. The best way to place a bet here is on Michigan to cover the spread in this game.
Purdue Michigan Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 1, 2025 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Michigan 35 Purdue 3.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Purdue Boilermakers: 9-22 ATS in all lined games. 3-8 ATS as a road underdog. 6-16 ATS against conference opponents. 2-8 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. 4-0 UNDER after a loss by 6 or less points. 7-2 UNDER versus good defensive teams - allowing 310 yards/game or less.
Michigan Wolverines: 8-4 ATS after playing their last game on the road. 13-7 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse. 5-1 UNDER when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 9-5 UNDER when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%).
Key Injuries
Purdue Boilermakers: M. Easley (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Slusher (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. G. Burhenn (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Magwood (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Morrissette (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Hall (WR) Out - Leg.
Michigan Wolverines: E. Link (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Moore (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. H. Hansen (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Warren (QB) Questionable - Knee. M. Ka'apana (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Charleston (WR) Out - Undisclosed. D. Baxter (DL) Out - Undisclosed. J. Hood (LB) Out - Undisclosed. D. Johnson (RB) Out - Undisclosed. I. Stewart (WR) Out - Undisclosed. A. Babalola (OG) Out - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“I don’t know if it got punched from behind on his way down. He didn’t secure it at that point.” - Barry Odom after his team’s loss against Rutgers in their last game.
“We’ve got a good running back tandem that plays physical and wears you down.” - Sherrone Moore after his team’s win against MSU in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Purdue Boilermakers
WR Tuggle, Nitro
WR Horton Jr., EJ
WR Jackson III, Michael
TE Burhenn, George
QB Browne, Ryan
RB Mockobee, Devin
Michigan Wolverines
WR McCulley, Donaven
WR Goodwin, Channing
WR Morgan, Semaj
TE Klein, Marlin
QB Underwood, Bryce
RB Haynes, Justice
Statistical Leaders
Purdue Boilermakers
Passing: Ryan Browne (1,689)
Rushing: Devin Mockobee (521)
Receiving: Michael Jackson III (398)
Touchdowns: Devin Mockobee (5)
Michigan Wolverines
Passing: Bryce Underwood (1,526)
Rushing: Justice Haynes (857)
Receiving: Donaven McCulley (378)
Touchdowns: Justice Haynes (10)
Coaches:
Purdue Boilermakers: Barry Odom (1st season)
Michigan Wolverines: Sherrone Moore (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
