Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan Wolverines: Big Ten Championship Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 12/3/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Monday, Nov 28, 2022
Big Ten Championship Game

Time: 8 p.m. ET
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Where to watch: FOX

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Michigan -16.5
FanDuel: Michigan -15.5
BetMGM: Michigan -16.5
Caesars: Michigan -16

Season record
Purdue: 8-4
No. 2 Michigan: 12-0

Conference championship week is here, and you can't tell me you don't think these games mean a little bit extra on the books. College Football Playoff implications, the balance of power in the college football landscape to be decided this weekend, starting Friday with a big game notably in Las Vegas. Do you have the right idea when you head to the books for these important games? Our champion handicappers surely have you covered. Will Rogers is running an impressive 24-11-0 in the last month. Al McMordie has also been cashing in heavily with a 40-29-1 mark in college football over the last 30 days. Our guys here have you ready to go for what should be an exciting week. Be tuned to bigal.com for everything!

Purdue - Michigan preview, analysis and prediction


Last week
Purdue: won 30-16 at Indiana
Michigan: won 45-23 at No. 2 Ohio State

There is a new guard dog in the Big 10. It may have taken many years four to get to this point and it may have taken way too long for it to finally be established, but the Michigan Wolverines are in fact the kings of this conference. Goodbye Ohio State, goodbye long perceived dominance in the Ohio State dash Michigan rivalry. It is Michigan’s team, it is Michigan’s time, and it is Michigan’s chance to get back to the College Football Playoff and put a serious stranglehold on the Big 10 arms race.

Like last year, however, Michigan did need to play a conference title game in order to get to the College Football Playoff and the same of course will ring true this time around. The good thing is is that it will not be the Iowa Hawkeyes like it was last year in what was an utter embarrassment on national television, but instead, it will be the Purdue Boilermakers making their case in the big 10 championship game.

Saturday will be one of those moments where I almost want to give Purdue the ultimate participation trophy. Because this is not a bad product team. They are a talented group that had a really good run last year. Just losing so much talent and the quarterback not developing more thoroughly than I think they would have hoped played a huge role into this and as a result Purdue essentially eases on in to the conference title game after Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota all fell flat down the stretch.

And while we should give Purdue its flowers, along with quarterback Aidan O'Connell, this is all about Michigan. This needs to be about Michigan. This needs to focus on the fact that Michigan went the entire year facing cupcake opponents in the non-conference schedule, that Michigan didn't look impressive throughout conference play until it finally got the chance to face Ohio State. 

And in the most ultimate show-me game that they possibly could have been this year from Michigan they do not go out and just win a game against Ohio State for the second year in a row. Michigan dominated this game without star running back Blake Corum. he did run twice in that game but he could not do anything with that ankle injury. Instead, it was quarterback JJ McCarthy throwing for 263 yards and three touchdowns, and backup running back Donovan Edwards putting on the show of a lifetime with 216 yards and two touchdowns, including a 70-yard burst right after Ohio State cut it to A1 score game and essentially put the game out of reach for Michigan.

Five years ago there is no way this team could beat Ohio State on its best day. The fact that Michigan, and I suppose coach Jim Harbaugh, when so long and coming up so short says a lot about how far Michigan has come. Michigan came into this year not knowing who its quarterback was, trying to figure out how to replace Hassan Reddick, and how to replace Aiden Hutchinson, and somehow they found a way to do it. They dominated what was considered the best team in that conference all year long. And the fact that they did it in what seemed like easy fashion despite trailing 20 to 17 at halftime, they go out and outscore Ohio State 28-3 in the second half. hey miss

Michigan deserves every ounce of credit for doing what it did not only this season, but especially on Saturday. If they get into the College Football Playoff and get a chance to play for the national title, we can talk about the deficiencies in another time. Right now, this is Michigan and it's their time. I for one can't wait to see what they do in the final four.

Prediction


We will give Purdue their flowers and we will move on from there. This is going to be a bloodbath, maybe not as bad as it was against Iowa last year, but I can't see Purdue winning this game and if you do I hope that they cover for your sake. Michigan by 28

Betting trends


Michigan is 65-92 ATS off an over since 1992.

Michigan is 8-24 ATS on the road after gaining 475 total yards or more in the previous game since 1992.

Michigan is 18-8 ATS in all games the last 2 seasons.

Michigan is 13-5 ATS after playing a conference opponents the last 2 seasons.

Statistical leaders


Purdue:
Passing: Aidan O'Connell -- 3,124 yards, 22 TD, 11 INT
Rushing: Devin Mockobee -- 849 yards, 8 TD
Receiving: Charlie Jones -- 1,199 yards, 12 TD

Michigan:
Passing: J.J. McCarthy -- 2,215 yards, 17 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Blake Corum -- 1,463 yards, 16 TD
Receiving: Ronnie Bell -- 687 yards, 2 TD

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Purdue Boilermakers - Michigan Wolverines prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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