Purdue Boilermakers vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 02/18/2025

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Tuesday, February 18, 2025

Venue:  Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI

Where to Watch:  Peacock

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Purdue +3.5, MSU -3.5; Over/Under:  148.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Purdue +3.5, MSU -3.5; Over/Under:  148.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Purdue +3.5, MSU -3.5; Over/Under:  148.5 points

Purdue Boilermakers:  19-7 (11-4) (3rd place, Big Ten)

Michigan State Spartans:  20-5 (11-3) (2nd place, Big Ten)

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Purdue Boilermakers:  3-2  last 5

Michigan State Spartans:  2-3  last 5

Purdue is entering this game with a 19-7 record overall, an 11-4 record in conference games, and they are 5-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Wisconsin Badgers in their last game. Trey Kaufman-Renn led the team in points per game in that game with 30 while Fletcher Loyer was next on the team with 15. Braden Smith led the team in assists with 12 in that game while C.J. Cox led the team in rebounds with 6. They were 51.8% from the field, 45.5% from 3-point range, and 76.2% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 78.7 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 69.8 PPG against them. Purdue has an ATS record of 15-11 this season and their O/U record is 16-10.

Michigan State is entering this game with a 20-5 record overall, an 11-3 conference record, and they are 12-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Illinois Fighting Illini in their last game. Jaxon Kohler led the team in points in that game with 23 while Tre Holloman was next on the team with 14. Jeremy Fears Jr. led the team in assists with 5 in that game while Jaxon Kohler led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 48.5% from the field, 41.7% from 3-point range, and 61.5% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 79.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 67.5 PPG against them. Michigan State has an ATS record of 15-9-1 this season and their O/U record is 9-16.

The current betting odds have Michigan State listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Michigan State has looked really good in their games this season with their 20-5 record overall and their 11-3 conference record which has them right near the top of the Big Ten. They have looked great on their home court too with their 12-1 home record. Meanwhile, Purdue has looked really good in their games this season with their 19-7 record overall and their 11-4 conference record which has them right near the top of the Big Ten too. They have been a good road team with their 5-3 road record, but they haven't been elite in their road games this season. They are 3-2 in their last 5 games, but they are starting to spiral a bit with 2 losses in a row now, losing to Michigan on the road and Wisconsin at home in their last one. They lost to Wisconsin by 10 points too and they haven't really been blowing teams out in their wins lately either. Michigan State has been struggling themselves lately as they are 2-3 in their last 5 games, but they are coming off a nice road win over Illinois in their last one and even erased a big halftime deficit in that one. Michigan State will use that win to get themselves back on track and they have been playing like one of the best teams in the conference all season. Michigan State has also been great on their home court and can take advantage of Purdue slipping into this slump now. The best way to place a bet here is on Michigan State to cover the spread in this game. 

Purdue Michigan State Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Tuesday, February 18, 2025 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Michigan State 88 Purdue 81.

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Purdue Boilermakers: 19-25 ATS after playing a home game. 2-5 1H ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less or pick. 6-2 UNDER in a road game where the total is 140 to 149.5. 17-10 1H UNDER in road games. 

Michigan State Spartans: 26-18 ATS in all home games. 6-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick. 35-26 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 turnovers/game or less. 7-3 UNDER as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick. 13-7 UNDER in a home game where the total is 140 to 149.5.

Purdue Boilermakers:  D. Jacobsen (C) Out - Knee.

Michigan State Spartans:  C. Walton (F) Out - Redshirt.

"I think when you look at it, we've been able to force turnovers. When you can get turnovers and get into transition and turn those into points — and then when you can't, now you've got to play the whole possession out and get a stop.” - Matt Painter after his team’s loss against Wisconsin in their last game.

“We disappointed so many people (Tuesday) when we lost to Indiana at home. It was one of the worst defeats of my career because of the way we played. To pick ourselves off the ground after that loss and win in this environment after falling behind by 16 points (in the first half) was incredible.” - Tom Izzo after his team’s win against Illinois in their last game.  

C. Cox 

C. Furst 

T. Kaufman-Renn 

F. Loyer 

B. Smith

J. Akins 

J. Fears 

T. Holloman 

J. Kohler 

S. Zapala

PPG: T. Kaufman-Renn (19.4)

APG: B. Smith (8.8)

Reb/G: T. Kaufman-Renn (6.3)

PPG: J. Akins (13.2)

APG: J. Fears (6)

Reb/G: J. Kohler (7.8)

Coaches:

Purdue Boilermakers: Matt Painter (20th season)

Michigan State Spartans: Tom Izzo (30th season)