Purdue Boilermakers vs Illinois Fighting Illini Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/07/2025

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Friday, March 7, 2025

Venue:  State Farm Center, Champaign, IL 

Where to Watch:  FOX

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Purdue +3.5, Illinois -3.5; Over/Under:  160 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Purdue +3.5, Illinois -3.5; Over/Under:  160 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Purdue +3.5, Illinois -3.5; Over/Under:  160 points

Purdue Boilermakers:  21-9 (13-6) (5th place, Big Ten)

Illinois Fighting Illini:  19-11 (11-8) (8th place, Big Ten)

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Purdue Boilermakers:  2-3  last 5

Illinois Fighting Illini:  2-3  last 5

Purdue is entering this game with a 21-9 record overall, a 13-6 record in conference games, and they are 5-5 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in their last game. Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer each led the team in points in that game with 23 while Trey Kaufman-Renn were next on the team with 16. Braden Smith led the team in assists with 9 in that game while Caleb Furst led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 56.1% from the field, 50% from 3-point range, and 88.9% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 78.2 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 70 PPG against them. Purdue has an ATS record of 17-13 this season and their O/U record is 18-12.

Illinois is entering this game with a 19-11 record overall, an 11-8 conference record, and they are 12-4 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Michigan Wolverines in their last game. Tre White led the team in points in that game with 19 while Kylan Boswell and Kasparas Jakučionis each were next on the team with 17. Will Riley and Tomislav Ivišić each led the team in assists with 5 in that game while Tre White led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 46.6% from the field, 37.8% from 3-point range, and 73.3% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 83.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 73.3 PPG against them. Illinois has an ATS record of 14-16 this season and their O/U record is 18-12.

The current betting odds have Illinois listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Illinois has looked good in their games this season with their 19-11 record overall and their 11-8 conference record which has them in the top half of the Big Ten. They have also looked really good on their home court this year with their 12-4 home record. Meanwhile, Purdue has looked really good in their games this season with their 21-9 record overall and their 13-6 conference record which has them right near the top of the Big Ten. They haven't been a good road team though with their 5-5 road record. They haven't looked great lately either, going 2-3 in their last 5 games. They are coming off a win over Rutgers in their last one and they are starting to build momentum again with 2 wins in a row now, but they have struggled a lot in their road games lately. Their last 2 wins were both at home, but they were losing some bad games to much weaker opponents on the road before that. Illinois hasn't looked any better lately as they are also 2-3 in their last 5 games, but they have looked a lot better at home this season and are also building some momentum again. Illinois has won 2 games in a row now and they are coming off a huge road win over Michigan which really hurt Michigan's chances of winning the Big Ten Title for the regular season. Illinois is going to carry that momentum into this game and they will bring their best effort for their last home game of the season, another chance to get a good win under their belt before the tournament. The best way to place a bet here is on Illinois to cover the spread in this game. 

Purdue Illinois Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Friday, March 7, 2025 (8:00 pm ET start time) is Illinois 82 Purdue 77.

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Purdue Boilermakers: 4-13 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more. 18-24 ATS off a home win. 29-19 OVER off a win against a conference rival. 25-18 OVER versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game. 

Illinois Fighting Illini: 23-10 ATS after a win by 15 points or more. 24-16 ATS after scoring 85 points or more. 10-3 ATS versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 45% or more. 24-12 OVER off a win against a conference rival. 28-15 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%).

Purdue Boilermakers:  D. Jacobsen (C) Out - Knee.

Illinois Fighting Illini:  M. Johnson (F) Out - Wrist. T. Rodgers (G) Out - Redshirt.

"You always react more to how somebody plays their last game. Their ability to get on the glass, their ability to chase rebounds — a little bit of everything. Their quickness to get a lot of rebounds, but also their physicalness. Sometimes you don't see that across the board, you'll see a couple of guys on the front line from a physical standpoint overmatch people, but they have good positional size and strength and quickness across the board." - Matt Painter on his team’s upcoming game against Illinois on Friday.

"I couldn't be prouder of a group of guys than I am with this group." - Brad Underwood after his team’s win against Michigan in their last game.

C. Cox 

C. Furst 

T. Kaufman-Renn 

F. Loyer 

B. Smith

K. Boswell 

B. Humrichous 

T. Ivisic 

K. Jakucionis 

T. White

PPG: T. Kaufman-Renn (19.4)

APG: B. Smith (8.7)

Reb/G: T. Kaufman-Renn (6.1)

PPG: K. Jakucionis (15.4)

APG: K. Jakucionis (4.8)

Reb/G: T. Ivisic (7.7)

Coaches:

Purdue Boilermakers: Matt Painter (20th season)

Illinois Fighting Illini: Brad Underwood (8th season)