Game Time: 8:00 PM ET, Monday, February 14th, 2022 

Venue:  Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Where to Watch:  NBA League Pass

DraftKings:  Spread:  Bucks -14.5

BetMGM:  Spread:  NL

VegasInsider:  Spread:  Bucks -14.5 

WynnBet: Spread:  NL

Trail Blazers: 23-24, 10th place Western Conference

Bucks: 35-22, 4th place Eastern Conference

An NBA non-conference matchup between two teams on very different roads.  The Trail Blazers were very active around the trade deadline.  They unloaded SG/SF Norman Powell and his $90 million dollars over the next 4 seasons plus PF Robert Covington on the Los Angeles Clippers for virtually nothing.  They dropped star SG CJ McCollum on the New Orleans Pelicans for a package of players and a pick or two.  The Blazers are now a team made of disparate parts and moving pieces.  They still have star PG Damian Lilliard who is out with an abdominal injury… but he will certainly demand out very soon.  They are undoubtedly saving Damian for the big draft day deal or some early Free Agency sign and trades.  The Trail Blazers are really just young PG Anfernee Simons and mediocre center Jusuf Nurkic.  If I am leaving someone out it is because they really aren’t worth mentioning.  This is a full rebuild down to the studs.  The Blazers most likely will not win many games before the end of the season.  Yet in tru basketball irony they beat the Los Angeles Lakers the night of the trade deadline with virtually no quality players on the floor.  It was shocking and it proves even the scrubs are NBA quality players… in case you think differently.  The Milwaukee Bucks made a small move at the deadline by trading Donte DiVincenzo  in a complex yet not very impactful 4 team trade that roped in the Sacramento Kings, the Detroit Pistons, and the Los Angeles Clippers… when the dust settled the Bucks got C Serge Ibaka and two future 2nd round picks, plus a little walkin’ around money.  The deal wasn’t about immediate impact; it was about thinning the overcrowded Bucks herd at Shooting guard and adding some back-up muscle at the Center spot.  Overall the Bucks did nothing major because “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it… just play with it a little”... They are after all last year’s Champs… and even if the Phoenix Suns recently brushed them off like a flea on a dog… They still have a real solid shot at coming out of the Eastern Conference led by the game’s best player Giannis Antetokuonmpo.  

The Trail Blazers have won their last two games!  They beat the Los Angeles Lakers AND the New York Knicks… In fact as soon as they declared a full rebuild… they are unbeaten.  The team is now firmly in the hands of PG Anfernee Simons… and guys like SF Justise Winslow, SG Josh Hart, and PF CJ Ellerby are free to do whatever they want out there.  They are trying and hustling … all seemingly knowing that they are auditioning for OTHER TEAMS as much as they are trying to impress the Portland brass.  The two wins have brought them to 3 wins over their last ten games.  They are in the 10th spot in the standings which does technically qualify them for the play-in tournament, if it holds.  The New Orleans Pelicans are just a ½ game back at 11… but c’mon…. Do you trust the Pelicans to win?

The Milwaukee Bucks are a stacked and loaded team.  They are the platter of nachos you get for yourself instead of the table… knowing that you don’t have to worry about someone not liking jalapenos or tomatoes or maybe they don’t eat meat… because these nachos… have everything!  They have a legit star and NBA Finals MVP in Giannis, they have Jrue Holiday running the point, SF Khris Middleton a legit scorer found in the second round of the draft in 2012 by Detroit (maybe why the wanted a couple 2nd round picks on their ledger), and a couple of hustlers in C Bobby Portis and SG Grayson Allen.  Grayson is an out of control person and eventually someone will smack him, but for now he is hitting shots for 11.6 ppg a couple rebounds and a couple of assists.  Behind Grayson are both Wesley Matthews and Pat Connaughton… so that is why Donte was available. 

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Portland is 23-34 on the season, but 23-33-1 ATS.  When they lose they don’t often cover.  They have logged 26 Overs, 30 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 7-18 in road games.

Milwaukee is 35-22 on the season, but 26-31 ATS.  They are a tough 19-9 in home games.

Portland is 20th in scoring with 107.7 ppg, 20th in rebounds with 43.9 per game, and 24th in AST/TO ratio with 1.6. They are shooting 24th in FG%, 13th in 3PT%, and 22nd in FT%.  They rank a dismal 25th on defense while allowing 112 ppg from opponents.  They are a “take it with a grain of salt” team… Their season-long stats were compiled by several players that are no longer with the team.  The floor is open to new shooters and new rebounders… the defense is all about who wants to impress Chauncey Billups… and at this point a Blazers player should be listening to Chauncey out of simple career survival.

The Bucks are 6th in scoring with 112.9 ppg, 3rd in rebounds with 46.5 pre game, and 16th in AST/TO ratio with 1.7. They shoot 14th in FG%, 4th in 3PT%, and 14th in FT%.  They are 15th on defense while allowing 109.2 ppg.  Serge Ibaka may improve the defensive numbers a little, but honestly he won’t be on the court much.  The quick offense that Giannis pushes doesn’t fit Serge very well.

Our prediction for Monday, February 14th is…. Bucks 118 - Blazers 101

This is finally the game where the new-look Blazers reveal themselves for the mess that they are. However, a -14.5 point spread is a lot of points for the Bucks to cover.  Many gamblers have a limit to the NBA point spreads they buy into.  I think this one is safe… but proceed with caution.  An NBA team gas no incentive to actually shoot if they are up by 10 with 2 minutes left… in fact the incentive is all about the 2nd unit dribbling out a couple of possessions.

Enjoy the Super Bowl… all total I have $880 riding on the Rams to cover… and $120 on Stafford to win MVP…  1 grand floating.

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Milwaukee is 36 Overs and 20 Under in non-conference games the last two seasons.
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS versus Portland the last 3 seasons.
29 Over and 20 Under in this series since 1996.

Blazers: PG Damian Lilliard (abdominal) Out ** SF Nassir Little (shoulder) Out ** SG Keon Johnson (ankle) Out ** SF Joe Ingles (knee) Out for season (he may never actually put on a Portland uniform) ** PG Didi Louzada (knee) Out for season ** PG Dennis Smith Jr (elbow) Quest ** PG Eric Bledsoe (achilles) Out

Bucks: SG Pat Connaughton (finger) Out indefinitely ** PG George Hill (neck) Out indefinitely ** C Brook Lopez (back) Out indefinitely

Blazers: PF CJ Ellerby, SF Justise Winslow, C Jusuf Nukic, PG Anfernee Simons, SG Josh Hart

Bucks: SF Khris Middleton, PF Giannis Antetokounmpo, C Bobby Portis, SG Grayson Allen, PG Jrue Holiday

Blazers

Points: Damian Lilliard 24

Assists: Damian Lilliard 7.3

Rebounds: Jusuf Nurkic 11

Steals: Justise Winslow 1.8

Blocks: Robert Coviington 1.3

Bucks

Points: Giannis Antetokounmpo 29.0

Assists: Jrue Holiday 6.6

Rebounds: Giannis Antetokounmpo 11.2

Steals: Jrue Holiday 1.5

Blocks: Brook Lopez 3.0

Blazers: Chauncey Billups

Bucks: Mike Budenholzer