Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 12/4/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Where to watch: CBS

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Steelers -1
FanDuel: Steelers -1
BetMGM: Steelers -1
Caesars: Steelers -1

Season record
Steelers: 4-7 (Last place, AFC North)
Falcons: 5-7 (2nd place, NFC South)

December is here. Winter is coming. The final month of the NFL season is upon us. Plenty of playoff races still to be determined. If you haven't channeled your inner Russel Crowe screaming "Are you not entertained?!?" then what exactly are you waiting for? Week 13 has some serious divisional games, starting with Thursday's showdown in Foxboro. Do you have the right ways to play these final few weeks? Especially as the calendar turns to December with Christmas on the horizon? If anything's like November if you've been following our champion handicappers, you know it can be a good time. How about Sean Murphy going 20-10-1  over the last 30 days? Brian Bitler chipped in with a 17-8-1 run over the last month. You know the winning ways are reasonable if you're following bigal.com and getting our champion handicappers' best plays!

Steelers - Falcons preview, analysis and prediction


Last week
Steelers: won 24-17 at Colts (Monday)
Falcons: lost 19-13 at Commanders

Well, this is going to be one of the more boring games of the week, I believe. If you plan on taking the under, I strongly advise you hit the under with as much money as you possibly can because this is not going to be the most high-scoring game that you've ever seen in your life. Compared to the last time the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Atlanta Falcons met in 2018 when Pittsburgh won 41-17, I don't think it's going to resemble anything quite like that. And have you ever realized how lopsided this series this is? The Steelers lead the all-time series 14-2-1. Quite amazing really.

You have to go back to 2014 to find the last time these two teams met in Atlanta. Back then, the Georgia Dome was still a thing. I don't know if that's more happenstance that the AFC North has not played the NFC South many times, but that is very weird. Pittsburgh is coming into this game off a 24-17 victory against the Indianapolis Colts on Monday, a sign that it was not the best of weeks for Indianapolis coach Jeff Saturday. And in all honesty, Pittsburgh barely squeaked out a win in that game. I feel so bad for the Monday Night Football crew sometimes. Not as much as I feel sorry for the Thursday Night Football crew, that this is a bad slate of games for Monday night.

Ricky quarterback Kenny Pickett completed 20 of 28 passes for 174 yards. He didn't have any touchdown passes, but it was his third game this season completing 70% of his passes, and is actually tied for the second most ever by a Pittsburgh rookie quarterback. Also, if you want a state that shows just how wild of a situation it is for the Steelers to have this kid as their quarterback, Pickett needs 400 passing yards to join Ben Roethlisberger as the only Steelers rookies ever with 2000 passing yards.

I actually think back to Roethlisberger and his rookie season sometimes and realize that he really wasn't that efficient throwing the football. It's pretty incredible that he ended up going on the career that he did and will eventually be a Hall of Fame quarterback. Pickett isn't quite there yet, and it might be a little bit before he actually gets to that point, but the one thing that Pickett has that Big Ben also had is a really stout defense. TJ Watt is back and he is fully healthy, which is a very good sign for the Pittsburgh pass rush. In his absence, Alex Highsmith has become the elite pass rusher for Pittsburgh since Watt went down in week one. Highsmith actually leads the Steelers with 10 sacks this year.

Considering how bad the Atlanta offense has been this year, this should be a field day for the Pittsburgh pass rush. It is week 13 and Marcus Mariota is still the quarterback of the Falcons. Why? I have absolutely no idea. Because when you can only put up 13 points against the Washington Commanders, you've really done something wrong as an offense. Cordarrelle Patterson can only do so much but he cannot throw the football. Drake London can only do so much as a rookie wide receiver, but he can definitely not throw the football. Grady Jarrett can do all he can in getting tackles for loss in sacks. But he cannot throw the football.

Mariota cannot throw the football either. And as a result, Atlanta is losing a great opportunity to try and win this division. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have not pulled away with this thing yet. And considering they lost last week to Cleveland and now have to face New Orleans on Monday night, nothing is sacred for the Bucs. Atlanta still has a chance but he needs to figure something out quickly because going into games like this and expecting different results by playing the exact same way is not good football and I don't know how coach Arthur Smith sleeps at night knowing that he's letting a golden goose opportunity go to waste like this.

Prediction


The Pittsburgh defense is going to dominate this game period however many points the Pittsburgh offense can put up, remains to be seen. But I do like Pittsburgh getting everyone healthy on defense as of late and it will translate to a dominant wind this time around. Steelers by 17 

Betting trends


Steelers are 97-66 ATS as an underdog since 1992.

Steelers are 74-51 ATS as a road underdog since 1992.

Falcons are 0-6 ATS at home after failing to cover in 2 of 3 the last 2 seasons.

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Pittsburgh Steelers - Atlanta Falcons prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NFL projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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