Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/03/2026

Game Time: 6:45 pm ET, Friday, July 3, 2026

Venue:  Nationals Park, Washington, DC

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates +119, Nationals -143; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates +120, Nationals -140; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates +120, Nationals -145; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Pittsburgh Pirates:  43-44 (4th place, NL Central)

Washington Nationals:  45-43 (4th place, NL East)

Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Vegas Writer is on a HOT STREAK in MLB on a 21-13-1 MLB RUN for +$7,350 PROFIT! Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.

Pittsburgh Pirates:  5-5 last 10

Washington Nationals:  5-5 last 10

The Pirates are entering this series off a win and split their 4-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies 2-2 in their last series. They enter this game with a 44-44 record overall and have a road record of 21-22. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Nationals on Friday. Their offense ranks 2nd in the MLB with a .759 OPS. Jared Jones was their starting pitcher on Thursday while Mitch Keller is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 6-5 with a 4.87 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 3 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 4 SO on 5 hits through 6 IP against the Cincinnati Reds.

The Nationals are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Boston Red Sox 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 45-43 record overall and have a home record of 17-25. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Pirates on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 4th in the MLB with a .747 OPS. Brad Lord was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Foster Griffin is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 8-2 with a 2.93 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 2 walks with 9 strikeouts on 3 hits through 7 innings pitched against the Baltimore Orioles.

The current betting odds have the Nationals listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Nationals have looked good in their games this season with their 45-43 record overall, but that record has them right near the bottom of the NL East. They haven't looked good in their own ballpark though with their 17-25 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Pirates have looked good in their games this season with their 44-44 record overall, but that record has them right near the bottom of the NL Central. They haven't been a great road team either with their 21-22 road record this year. Neither team has looked great lately as both are 5-5 in their last 10 games respectively and both also have 2 of the best offenses in MLB at the moment, but the Nationals are going to have the better pitching matchup in this one and they can take advantage of that. The Pirates are going with Keller in this one and he hasn't looked good this season. He is 6-5 with a 4.87 ERA and he has been giving up a ton of runs lately. His team has been having success lately, winning 2 of their last 3 games with him starting, but he did give up 3 earned runs in his last start and he has been giving up a lot more than that as of late. The Nationals are going with Griffin in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 8-2 with a 2.93 ERA and his team has been having a lot of success with him. They have won 3 games in a row now with him starting and he is coming off another great start in which he gave up no runs. The Nationals are going to have the edge at home with the better starter and the Pirates bullpen hasn't been any better this season either. The best way to place a bet here is on the Nationals to win this game. 

Pirates Nationals Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 3, 2026 (6:45 pm ET start time) is Nationals 6 Pirates 3.

Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks, best bets, and expert baseball picks today.  And if you enjoyed this Pittsburgh Pirates Washington Nationals prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily MLB projections and previews.

Pittsburgh Pirates: 191-220 (-22.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 84-119 (-19.2 units) on the moneyline in road games. 44-60 (-15.8 units) on the moneyline against left-handed starters. 24-11 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record.

Washington Nationals: 37-46 (+5 units) on the moneyline against NL Central opponents. 182-231 (+9.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 72-75 (+18.9 units) on the moneyline when the total is 9 to 9.5. 48-33 OVER against NL Central opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates:  S. Horwitz (1B) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. W. Dotel (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Lat. O. Cruz (CF) Ten Day IL - Hand. C. Devenski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Illness.

Washington Nationals:  M. Parker (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Lovelady (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Triceps. M. Kranick (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Irvin (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. K. Waldichuk (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. J. Gray (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. D. Herz (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Williams (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“I didn’t execute very well. That’s really what it comes down to. I fell behind on some counts and left some balls over the plate.” - Paul Skenes after their loss against the Phillies in their game on Wednesday. 

“To see guys in the bottom of the order or guys that aren’t starting every single night come through for us and step up, that’s what it takes to be a winning ball club and have success in this league. You need all one through 13 to be able to contribute. Hats off to our guys for doing so.” - Blake Butera after his team’s win against the Red Sox in their game on Wednesday.

Jake Mangum (S) CF

Brandon Lowe (L) 2B

Bryan Reynolds (S) LF

Esmerlyn Valdez (R) RF

Ryan O'Hearn (L) 1B

Nick Gonzales (R) 3B

Marcell Ozuna (R) DH

Endy Rodríguez (S) C

Jared Triolo (R) SS

James Wood (L) LF

Curtis Mead (R) 3B

Andrés Chaparro (R) 1B

Dylan Crews (R) RF

Daylen Lile (L) DH

Jacob Young (R) CF

Jorbit Vivas (L) 2B

Nasim Nuñez (S) SS

Drew Millas (S) C

Batting Average:  Rafael Flores (.667)

Hits:  Nick Gonzales (93)

Home Runs:  Brandon Lowe (20)

RBI:  Brandon Lowe (57)

Stolen Bases:  Oneil Cruz (21)

Wins:  Braxton Ashcraft (8)

Saves:  Gregory Soto (11)

ERA:  Evan Sisk (2.23)

Batting Average:  Joey Wiemer (.286)

Hits:  James Wood (90)

Home Runs:  James Wood (22)

RBI:  CJ Abrams (60)

Stolen Bases:  Nasim Nuñez (32)

Wins:  Foster Griffin (8)

Saves:  Gus Varland (6)

ERA:  Justin Lawrence (0.00)

Managers:

Pittsburgh Pirates: Don Kelly (2nd season)

Washington Nationals: Blake Butera (1st season)