Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Odds, Preview and Picks - 05/29/2022

by James Q

Saturday, May 28, 2022

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Odds, Preview and Picks - 05/29/2022


Game Time:  4:10 PM ET, Sunday, May 29th,  2022 
Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, California
Where to Watch: MLB.TV

Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Moneyline: 
 Caesars: Moneyline:  
PointsBet: Moneyline:
(will update)

Season Record

Pirates: 18-26, 3rd place NL Central
Padres: 29-16, 2nd place NL West

This will be Game 3 of the Padres homestand in San Diego against the Pittsburgh Pirates. As predicted the Padres won Game 1.  Game 2 is yet to play (tonight)... but this is a recommendation on how to bet Game 3 on Sunday.  It is a SWEEP recommendation.  Again Game 3 goes to the Padres.  Sweeps are what you should be looking for at this time of year.  They get harder to find as the year drags on.  Good teams will beat bad teams… That is a fact… but will they beat them 3 games in a row… giving you the chance to let the last win ride… and then let it ride again.  “Let it ride” is the best way to make big money against the moneyline.  Just this month I suggested “let it ride” when the Dodgers played the Arizona Diamondback at home.  The Dodgers went 4-0 in the series which also involved a double header.  It was 4-games over 3-days… That “letting it ride”, meaning get the win and then bet everything on the next game, would have produced an echo effect that would have squashed the small returns that the moneyline was providing.  I believe this is that series again.  The Pittsburgh Pirates will lose every game against the Padres… They do not stack up when batting and especially when pitching.  The Sweep will supply big returns if you push.  Please do so.  

A National League MLB matchup of Central vs West.  The Central division in the National League is not so great… In fact it is downright stinky.  The West division in the National League has 3 powerhouse teams that will jostle all season long (unless the Dodgers grab Juan Soto in a trade with the Nationals) for supremacy.  Part of that jostling is that the top 3 West teams will feast on Central teams.  The Padres are pushing the Dodgers for first place… the Pirates are sinking slowly into obscurity in the Central division with no batting, no hitting, and plenty of guys on the injured list.  It would seem we have an easy pick… Padres.  BUT, MLB betting is based on the moneyline… betting on the Pirates pays more and betting on the Padres pays less… so the real trick in finding the Great betting opportunity is deciding which is most likely to happen with as little risk as possible. Let’s check the number shall we?

The Pirates have won 4 of their last 10 games.  They went 2 Over, 6 Under, and 2 Push during that stretch.  The Under is a safe bet with the Pirates because they have scored ZERO points twice and 1 point twice during that stretch.  The O/U will always depend on what the other team is capable of.  They went 1-1 against the Colorado Rockies, 0-3 against the Saint Louis Cardinals, 1-2 against the Chicago Cubs, and 2-0 against the Cincinnati Reds over the last ten games.  We are betting on game 2 of this series as Game 1 will still be played tonight.  The Pirates have a real problem with their pitching rotation,  the top guys are few and far between.

The Padres have won 7 of their last ten games.  Going 3 Over and 7 Under during that stretch.  They won 1-3 against the Milwaukee Brewers, 3-0 against the San Francisco Giants, 2-1 against the Philadelphia Phillies, and 1-0 against the Atlanta Braves during that stretch.  The Padres are on a two-game losing streak and desperately need the incoming series against the Pittsburgh Pirates to set them straight.  The reason you DO NOT bet against the spread in baseball is that the Padres are 6-14 ATS at home… but 11-9 on the moneyline at home.  With the vig the home record just barely hits even… against the spread you would be down big.  Of course on the road either ATS or moneyline would have you up big while betting on the Padres … That is why you have to follow a single team everywhere if your approach is to bet on every game.  It is also why you should get help from a professional sports handicapper.

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Preview and Analysis

Offensive Analysis

The Pirates are 29th in runs per game with 3.40, 25th in batting average with .225, and 24th in OBP with .296. 

The Padres are 11th in runs with 4.38 per game, and 22nd in batting average with .228, and 14th in OBP with .311.

Defensive Analysis 

Pirates pitchers are 26th in ERA with 4.71, 26th in WHIP with 1.38, a nasty 30th in fielding errors with 36 on the season so far.

The Padres pitchers are 10th in ERA with 3.53, 7th in WHIP with 1.15.  Padres fielder’s are on point while ranking 1st in errors with only 14 on the season.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Our prediction for Sunday May 29th is… Padres 5 - Pirates 2

Get your third win in a row by betting the Padres to win! (Game 2 not played yet).  Since Padres wins pay about half of the bet in this matchup… go all in and “let it ride” from winning Game 2 tonight and Game 3 tomorrow.

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MLB Betting Trends
2 of 3 games this season between these teams have gone OVER.
San Diego is 12-4 against left handed starters this season.
San Diego is 11-3 after a loss this season.
Pirates are 83-156 (-27.5 Units) as an underdog of +100 or higher the last 3 seasons.

Key Injuries

Pirates: CF G. Allen (hammy) Out * SS K Newman (groin) Out ** C R Perez (groin) Out ** CF J Marisnick (thumb) Out

Padres: LF M. Beatty (shoulder) Out ** SS Fernando Tatis JR (wrist) Out ** 

Players to Watch

Pirates: RHP Rohansy Contreras, 1-0, 2.13 ERA, 15 strikeouts in 12 innings pitched, 0.95 WHIP.  Young pitcher Roansy Contreras has real speed on his pitch.  He is tossing the hell out of the ball… The Padres management gave him an easy outing against the Pirates to build his confidence.  He can always get spelled by the bullpen if he struggles out of the gate.

Padres: LHP McKenzie Gore, 3-1, 2.06 ERA, 38 strikeouts in 35 innings pitched, 1.14 WHIP.  Another super young dude on the mound.  MacKenzie has all the talent in the world and just needs some reps.  His first stint in the BIGs has been real promising for the 23 year old.  He’ll make a fine Yankee or Red Sock one day.

Starting Lineups 

Pirates: CF Bryan Reynolds. RF Cal Mitchell, 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, DH Ben Gamel, 1B Michael Chavis, 2B Josh VanMeter, SS Rodolfo Castro, LF Jack Suwinski, C Tyler Heinman

Padres: 2B -1B Jake Cronenworth, 3B Manny Machado, DH Jurickson Profar, RF Will Myers, 1B Luke Voit, C Austin Nola, SS Ha-Seong Kim, CF Trent Grisham, LF Jose Azocar


Managers

Pirates: Derek “no I’m not a lame country singer” Shelton
Padres: Bob Melvin

 

Weather Forecast

Partly Cloudy.  Highs of 65* The crash of surf and the 72% humidity and the sleight breeze of 10 mph winds will make for another enjoyable evening of baseball.  

 


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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