Game Time:  9:40 PM ET, Friday, May 27th,  2022 

Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, California

Where to Watch: MLB.TV

DraftKings: Moneyline: Pirates +170, Padres -200; O/U 7

 Caesars: Moneyline:  

PointsBet: Moneyline: 

Pirates: 18-25, 3rd place NL Central

Padres: 28-16, 2nd place NL West

A National League MLB matchup of Central vs West.  The Central division in the National League is not so great… In fact it is downright stinky.  The West division in the National League has 3 powerhouse teams that will jostle all season long (unless the Dodgers grab Juan Soto in a trade with the Nationals) for supremacy.  Part of that jostling is that the top 3 West teams will feast on Central teams.  The Padres are pushing the Dodgers for first place… the Pirates are sinking slowly into obscurity in the Central division with no batting, no hitting, and plenty of guys on the injured list.  It would seem we have an easy pick… Padres.  BUT, MLB betting is based on the moneyline… betting on the Pirates pays more and betting on the Padres pays less… so the real trick in finding the Great betting opportunity is deciding which is most likely to happen with as little risk as possible. Let’s check the number shall we?

The Pirates have won 4 of their last 10 games.  They went 2 Over, 6 Under, and 2 Push during that stretch.  The Under is a safe bet with the Pirates because they have scored ZERO points twice and 1 point twice during that stretch.  The O/U will always depend on what the other team is capable of.  They went 1-1 against the Colorado Rockies, 0-3 against the Saint Louis Cardinals, 1-2 against the Chicago Cubs, and 2-0 against the Cincinnati Reds over the last ten games.  We are betting on game 2 of this series as Game 1 will still be played tonight.  The Pirates have a real problem with their pitching rotation,  the top guys are few and far between.

The Padres have won 7 of their last ten games.  Going 3 Over and 7 Under during that stretch.  They won 1-3 against the Milwaukee Brewers, 3-0 against the San Francisco Giants, 2-1 against the Philadelphia Phillies, and 1-0 against the Atlanta Braves during that stretch.  The Padres are on a two-game losing streak and desperately need the incoming series against the Pittsburgh Pirates to set them straight.  The reason you DO NOT bet against the spread in baseball is that the Padres are 6-14 ATS at home… but 11-9 on the moneyline at home.  With the vig the home record just barely hits even… against the spread you would be down big.  Of course on the road either ATS or moneyline would have you up big while betting on the Padres … That is why you have to follow a single team everywhere if your approach is to bet on every game.  It is also why you should get help from a professional sports handicapper.

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The Pirates are 29th in runs per game with 3.40, 25th in batting average with .225, and 24th in OBP with .296. 

The Padres are 11th in runs with 4.38 per game, and 22nd in batting average with .228, and 14th in OBP with .311.

Pirates pitchers are 26th in ERA with 4.71, 26th in WHIP with 1.38, a nasty 30th in fielding errors with 36 on the season so far.

The Padres pitchers are 10th in ERA with 3.53, 7th in WHIP with 1.15.  Padres fielder’s are on point while ranking 1st in errors with only 14 on the season.

Our prediction for Friday May 27th is… Padres 5 - Pirates 2

The Pirates have been throwing junk and the Padres have the batters to hit that junk out of the park.  Bet on the Padres to win on the moneyline.  Avoid the Over/Under.  Both teams are prone to scoring in bunches or droughts… It is not worth the O/U.  The Padres will win.

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2 of 3 games this season between these teams have gone OVER.

San Diego is 12-4 against left handed starters this season.

San Diego is 11-3 after a loss this season.

Pirates are 83-156 (-27.5 Units) as an underdog of +100 or higher the last 3 seasons.

Pirates: CF G. Allen (hammy) Out * SS K Newman (groin) Out ** C R Perez (groin) Out ** CF J Marisnick (thumb) Out

Padres: LF M. Beatty (shoulder) Out ** SS Fernando Tatis JR (wrist) Out ** 

Pirates: LHP Jose Quintana, 1-2, 2.43 ERA, 34 strikeouts in 40 innings pitched.  1.18 WHIP.  33 year old Jose Quintana is finally improving on the career 3.80 ERA… he has at most 18 more months of good pitching in his arm.  He is a middle of the road guy… and will need lots of run support to get wins.

Padres: LHP Sean Manaea, 2-3, 4.04 ERA, 55 strikeouts in 49 innings pitched.  1.12 WHIP.  Sean’s ERA is tanking but all his other numbers are going up versus his career average.  The 30 year old needs one good year to avoid the fate of “guy who should stick to middle reliever”.  

Pirates: CF Bryan Reynolds. RF Cal Mitchell, 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, DH Ben Gamel, 1B Michael Chavis, 2B Josh VanMeter, SS Rodolfo Castro, LF Jack Suwinski, C Tyler Heinman

Padres: 2B -1B Jake Cronenworth, 3B Manny Machado, DH Jurickson Profar, RF Will Myers, 1B Luke Voit, C Austin Nola, SS Ha-Seong Kim, CF Trent Grisham, LF Jose Azocar

Pirates: Derek “no I’m not a lame country singer” Shelton

Padres: Bob Melvin

Partly Cloudy.  Highs of 65* The crash of surf and the 72% humidity and the sleight breeze of 10 mph winds will make for another enjoyable evening of baseball.