Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/11/2024

Game Time: 2:10 pm ET, Thursday, July 11, 2024

Venue:  American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI

Where to Watch:  Sportsnet PT

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates -135, Brewers +114; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates -135, Brewers +115; Over/Under:  8 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates -135, Brewers +115; Over/Under:  8 runs

Pittsburgh Pirates:  44-47 (3rd place, NL Central)

Milwaukee Brewers:  53-39 (1st place, NL Central)

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Pittsburgh Pirates:  5-5 last 10

Milwaukee Brewers:  4-6 last 10

The Pirates are entering this series off a win and split their 4-game series against the New York Mets 2-2 in their last series. They enter this game with a 44-47 record overall and have a road record of 22-23. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Brewers on Thursday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Pirates won the series opener of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 27th in the MLB with a .670 OPS. Martín Pérez is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Paul Skenes is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 5-0 with a 2.12 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 8 Ks on 4 hits through 7 IP against the New York Mets.

The Brewers are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 53-39 record overall and have a home record of 27-14. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Pirates on Thursday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Brewers lost the 1st game of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 10th in the MLB with a .731 OPS. Rookie pitcher Tobias Myers is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Aaron Civale is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 2-6 with a 5.18 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 earned runs, 3 homers, and 3 BB with 8 strikeouts on 5 hits through 5 innings played against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The current betting odds have the Pirates listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Brewers have looked good in their games this season with their 53-39 record overall which has them leading the NL Central with a top 10 record in the MLB. They have also looked great in their home games this year with their 27-14 home record. Meanwhile, the Pirates haven't looked great in their games this season with their 44-47 record overall which has them out of the playoff race right now. They haven't looked great in their road games either, going 22-23 in their road games this year. They haven't been the better team all season, but they are the hotter team coming into this one with their 5-5 record in their last 10 games while the Brewers are only 4-6. The Pirates also took the 1st game of this series in a 12-2 win and their offense has been getting really hot over their last few games. They are going to have a stud on the mound too since Skenes is starting in this one. Skenes is 5-0 with a 2.12 ERA and has been an absolute phenom in his MLB debut season. His team has lost 2 of their last 3 games with him starting, but a majority of the games he has started in have been wins since the Pirates usually bring the run support for him. He only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start too, and that has been a common theme for him all season. The Brewers aren't going to get much help from their starter here since Civale is on the mound and he won't keep this hot Pirates offense off the board. He is 2-6 with a 5.18 ERA and he already gave up 4 earned runs in his 1st start as a Brewer after getting traded from the Rays. Even going back to when he was on the Rays, his team has lost 2 games in a row with him starting and has also lost a majority of his starts over the last 2 months. The Pirates have the better pitching matchup in this one and with their offense getting hot now, this is a series they can win. The best way to place a bet here is on the Pirates to win this game. 

Pirates Brewers Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, July 11, 2024 (2:10 pm ET start time) is Pirates 8 Brewers 3.

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Pittsburgh Pirates: 35-46 (-13.05 units) on the moneyline in their last 81 games. 50-32 to the under with their team total in their last 82 games. 19-11 to the under in their last 30 games. 

Milwaukee Brewers: 21-7 (+11.45 units) on the moneyline in their last 28 home games. 19-11 (+11.80 units) on the runline in their last 30 home games. 54-39 (+10.45 units) on the first 5 runline in their last 93 games. 

Pittsburgh Pirates:  O. Cruz (SS) Que Wed - Hamstring. B. Falter (RP) Out indefinitely - Arm. D. Jefferies (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. J. Jones (SP) Out indefinitely - Back. D. Bednar (RP) Out indefinitely - Upper Body. H. Stratton (SP) Out indefinitely - Tricep. R. Borucki (RP) Out indefinitely - Wrist. M. Gonzales (SP) Out indefinitely - Forearm. M. Perez (SP) Mid June - Groin. D. Moreta (RP) out for season - Elbow. J. Oviedo (SP) out for season - Elbow. E. Rodriguez (C) out for season - Elbow.

Milwaukee Brewers:  J. Ortiz (2B) Out indefinitely - Neck. E. Paredes (RP) Out indefinitely - Forearm. J. Koenig (RP) Out indefinitely - Forearm. O. Dunn (2B) Out indefinitely - Back. G. Sanchez (C) Early July - Calf. J. Ross (SP) Out indefinitely - Back. R. Gasser (SP) out for season - Elbow. B. Woodruff (SP) out for season - Shoulder. D. Williams (RP) Mid July - Back. W. Miley (SP) out for season - Elbow. J. Bukauskas (RP) Out indefinitely - Tricep. D. Hall (SP) Out indefinitely - Knee.

“We continued to have good swings and added on throughout the game. I’m really proud of the whole group. Just really consistent at-bats.” - Derek Shelton after his team’s win against the Brewers in their game on Tuesday.

“It happened quickly. I felt like things were rolling pretty good and I felt like I executed pitches in the sixth inning but I wouldn’t say they were particularly sharp and they found some holes.” - Colin Rea after their loss against the Pirates in their game on Tuesday.

J Palacios (L) RF

B Reynolds (S) DH

R Tellez (L) 1B

N Gonzales (R) 2B

K Hayes (R) 3B

J Suwinski (L) LF

J Bart (R) C

J Triolo (R) SS

M Taylor (R) CF

J Chourio (R) RF

W Contreras (R) DH

C Yelich (L) LF

W Adames (R) SS

B Perkins (S) CF

R Hoskins (R) 1B

B Turang (L) 2B

E Haase (R) C

V Capra (R) 3B

Batting Average:  Bryan Reynolds (.280)

Hits:  Bryan Reynolds (103)

Home Runs:  Bryan Reynolds (17)

RBI:  Bryan Reynolds (56)

Stolen Bases:  Ke'Bryan Hayes (8)

Wins:  Mitch Keller (10)

Saves:  David Bednar (16)

ERA:  Brent Honeywell (0.00)

Batting Average:  Eric Haase (.357)

Hits:  William Contreras (106)

Home Runs:  Willy Adames (13)

RBI:  Willy Adames (58)

Stolen Bases:  Brice Turang (29)

Wins:  Colin Rea (8)

Saves:  Trevor Megill (18)

ERA:  James Meeker (0.00)

Managers:

Pittsburgh Pirates: Derek Shelton (5th season)

Milwaukee Brewers: Pat Murphy (1st season)