Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/09/2024

Game Time: 8:10 pm ET, Tuesday, July 9, 2024

Venue:  American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI

Where to Watch:  Sportsnet PT

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates +138, Brewers -164; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates +140, Brewers -165; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates +140, Brewers -165; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Pittsburgh Pirates:  43-47 (3rd place, NL Central)

Milwaukee Brewers:  53-38 (1st place, NL Central)

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Pittsburgh Pirates:  4-6 last 10

Milwaukee Brewers:  5-5 last 10

The Pirates are entering this series off a win and split their 4-game series against the New York Mets 2-2 in their last series. They enter this game with a 43-47 record overall and have a road record of 21-23. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Brewers on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 27th in the MLB with a .664 OPS. Mitch Keller was their starting pitcher on Monday while Martín Pérez is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 1-4 with a 4.72 ERA this season. His team lost their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 2 Ks on 6 hits through 7.1 IP against the St Louis Cardinals.

The Brewers are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 53-38 record overall and have a home record of 27-13. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Pirates on Tuesday and they have Monday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 10th in the MLB with a .732 OPS. Dallas Keuchel was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Colin Rea is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 8-2 with a 3.34 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 0 BB with 4 strikeouts on 6 hits through 7 innings played against the Colorado Rockies.

The current betting odds have the Brewers listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Brewers have looked good in their games this season with their 53-38 record overall which has them leading the NL Central with a top 10 record in the MLB. They have also looked great in their home games this year with their 27-13 home record. Meanwhile, the Pirates haven't looked great in their games this season with their 43-47 record overall which has them out of the playoff race right now. They haven't looked great in their road games either, going 21-23 in their road games this year. They managed to split their series with the Mets over the weekend, winning the last game of that series on Monday, but they are only 4-6 in their last 10 games and have been really up and down. The Brewers have been a lot more consistent as a team this season, and they also have a solid starter on the mound with Rea. He is 8-2 with a 3.34 ERA and the team has won their last 2 games with him starting. He also gave up no runs in his last start and that has been a common theme for him lately. The Pirates are going to have Perez on the mound in this one and he hasn't looked great this year. He is 1-4 with a 4.72 ERA and has been giving up a lot of runs in his starts. He didn't give up any runs in his last start, but that has been a rare occasion for him this season, and the team still lost the last 3 games he started in anyway so he isn't getting much run support either. The best way to place a bet here is on the Brewers to win this game. 

Pirates Brewers Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, July 9, 2024 (8:10 pm ET start time) is Brewers 7 Pirates 2.

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Pittsburgh Pirates: 34-45 (-13.45 units) on the moneyline in their last 79 games. 52-35 to the under with their team total in their last 87 games. 19-9 to the under in their last 28 games. 

Milwaukee Brewers: 24-11 (+10.90 units) on the moneyline in their last 35 home games. 18-10 (+11.55 units) on the runline in their last 28 home games. 53-38 (+10.60 units) on the first 5 runline in their last 91 games. 

Pittsburgh Pirates:  D. Santana (RP) - Arm. D. Bednar (RP) - Oblique. H. Davis (C) - Head. H. Stratton (RP) - Shoulder. C. Priester (SP) - Undisclosed. R. Borucki (RP) - Triceps. J. Bae (CF) - Undisclosed. M. Gonzales (SP) - Forearm. J. Bart (C) - Thumb. M. Pérez (RP) - Groin. D. Moreta (RP) - Elbow. E. Rodríguez (C) - Elbow. J. Oviedo (SP) - Elbow.

Milwaukee Brewers:  J. Ortiz (3B) - Neck. G. Sánchez (C) - Calf. R. Gasser (SP) - Flexor. O. Dunn (2B) - Back. D. Hall (SP) - Knee. J. Ross (SP) - Back. W. Miley (SP) - Elbow. J. Bukauskas (RP) - Lat. G. Mitchell (CF) - Finger. D. Williams (RP) - Back. T. Clarke (RP) - Meniscus. B. Woodruff (SP) - Elbow.

“He got ahead in counts. He had Alvarez 0-2 to start the inning and walked him. He had Iglesias 1-2. We were a pitch away from the game being over. Overall command of the fastball was the biggest thing.” - Derek Shelton after his team’s loss against the Mets in their game on Sunday.

“Yelich rose to the occasion when we needed him. Perkins was unbelievable too. Great effort by our guys.” - Pat Murphy after his team’s win against the LA Dodgers in their game on Sunday.

A McCutchen (R) DH

B Reynolds (S) LF

O Cruz (L) SS

R Tellez (L) 1B

N Gonzales (R) 2B

J Palacios (L) RF

J Suwinski (L) CF

J Bart (R) C

J Triolo (R) 3B

J Chourio (R) LF

R Hoskins (R) 1B

C Yelich (L) DH

W Adames (R) SS

G Mitchell (L) RF

B Perkins (S) CF

B Turang (L) 2B

V Capra (R) 3B

E Haase (R) C

Batting Average:  Joshua Palacios (.333)

Hits:  Bryan Reynolds (101)

Home Runs:  Bryan Reynolds (16)

RBI:  Bryan Reynolds (54)

Stolen Bases:  Ke'Bryan Hayes (8)

Wins:  Mitch Keller (9)

Saves:  David Bednar (16)

ERA:  Colin Holderman (1.93)

Batting Average:  Eric Haase (.455)

Hits:  William Contreras (105)

Home Runs:  Willy Adames (13)

RBI:  Willy Adames (58)

Stolen Bases:  Brice Turang (29)

Wins:  Colin Rea (8)

Saves:  Trevor Megill (18)

ERA:  James Meeker (0.00)

Managers:

Pittsburgh Pirates: Derek Shelton (5th season)

Milwaukee Brewers: Pat Murphy (1st season)