Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Preview and Odds - 08/13/2026

Game Time: 1:10 pm ET, Thursday, August 13, 2026

Venue:  LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates -126, Marlins +104; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates -125, Marlins +105; Over/Under:  8 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates -125, Marlins +105; Over/Under:  8 runs

Pittsburgh Pirates:  58-63 (5th place, NL Central)

Miami Marlins:  61-59 (3rd place, NL East)

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Pittsburgh Pirates:  3-7 last 10

Miami Marlins:  6-4 last 10

The Pirates are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the New York Mets 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 58-63 record overall and have a road record of 28-33. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Marlins on Thursday with the 2nd game still to be played on Wednesday. The Pirates lost the series opener on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 5th in the MLB with a .743 OPS. Carmen Mlodzinski is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Braxton Ashcraft is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 11-5 with a 4.08 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 4 ER, 2 HR, and 1 BB with 5 SO on 4 hits through 5 IP against the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Marlins are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Los Angeles Angels 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 61-59 record overall and have a home record of 37-24. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Pirates on Thursday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Marlins won the 1st game of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 10th in the MLB with a .730 OPS. Janson Junk is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Tyler Phillips is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 3-5 with a 3.47 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 1 homer, and 1 walk with 4 strikeouts on 5 hits through 4 innings pitched against the Los Angeles Angels.

The current betting odds have the Marlins listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Marlins have looked good in their games this season with their 61-59 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL East. They have looked great in their own ballpark too with their 37-24 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Pirates haven't looked great in their games this season with their 58-63 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the NL Central. They haven't been a great road team either with their 28-33 road record this year. The Pirates haven't looked great lately, now 3-7 in their last 10 games and sliding down the standings in the Wild Card race. The Marlins are right in that Wild Card race too, gaining some ground as they are 6-4 in their last 10 games, and they have looked like a completely different team in their home games this season. The Marlins are going with Phillips in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 3-5 with a 3.47 ERA and he has looked great lately. He is coming off another great start giving up 1 earned run and the team has been having more success with him lately, winning 2 of their last 3 games with him starting. The Pirates are going with Ashcraft in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 11-5 with a 4.08 ERA and has been one of their best starters all season, but lately he hasn't looked great. The team has still won 2 of their last 3 games with him starting, but he did give up 4 earned runs in his last start which has been becoming a common theme for him lately. The Marlins have been getting hot again with their offense rolling at home and even with Ashcraft bouncing back, the Pirates have a terrible bullpen that can't be trusted. The best way to place a bet here is on the Marlins to win this game. 

Pirates Marlins Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, August 13, 2026 (1:10 pm ET start time) is Marlins 5 Pirates 2.

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Pittsburgh Pirates: 206-239 (-26.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 92-130 (-21 units) on the moneyline in road games. 125-170 (-31.6 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better. 14-7 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start.

Miami Marlins: 202-242 (+15.7 units) on the moneyline in all games. 158-154 (+49.1 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 57-53 (+8.9 units) on the moneyline vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs/game on the season. 23-11 UNDER vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs/game on the season.

Pittsburgh Pirates:  E. Rodriguez (C) Day To Day - Hip. M. Keller (SP) Sixty Day IL - Arm. R. O'Hearn (RF) Ten Day IL - Quad. O. Cruz (CF) Sixty Day IL - Hand. K. Griffin (SS) Sixty Day IL - Finger.

Miami Marlins:  K. Stowers (1B) Ten Day - Hamstring. M. Meyer (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Neck. W. Kempner (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. A. Bender (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shin. A. Nardi (RP) Sixty Day IL - Ribs. R. Snelling (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Mazur (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Henriquez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“It’s tough. Everybody is going through it. We need to keep grinding and find a way. It’s frustrating for everybody. When you’re going out there and battling for something, there is different pressure. We need to find a way to be able to learn how to play with that, because that’s the expectation.” - Don Kelly after his team’s loss against the Marlins in their game on Tuesday. 

“He's going to have to put together some longer stretches, but I think [if] you look at these last 10-12 starts, it's hard to think [of] anyone that is really throwing the ball better and suppressing runs like he has. And it's how he's doing it, again, with how much better the arsenal is, how many more pitches he has that he can go to with an outing to attack both side hitters, the strike-throwing.” - Clayton McCullough after his team’s win against the Pirates in their game on Tuesday.

Jake Mangum (S) CF

Brandon Lowe (L) 2B

Bryan Reynolds (S) LF

Spencer Horwitz (L) 1B

Nick Gonzales (R) 3B

Ronny Simon (S) DH

Esmerlyn Valdez (R) RF

Jacob Gonzalez (L) SS

Henry Davis (R) C

Xavier Edwards (S) 2B

Otto Lopez (R) SS

Griffin Conine (L) 1B

Heriberto Hernández (R) LF

Jakob Marsee (L) CF

Javier Sanoja (R) 3B

Owen Caissie (L) DH

Joe Mack (L) C

Esteury Ruiz (R) RF

Batting Average:  Nick Gonzales (.304)

Hits:  Nick Gonzales (133)

Home Runs:  Brandon Lowe (25)

RBI:  Brandon Lowe (74)

Stolen Bases:  Oneil Cruz (21)

Wins:  Braxton Ashcraft (11)

Saves:  Gregory Soto (14)

ERA:  Khristian Curtis (0.00)

Batting Average:  Otto Lopez (.318)

Hits:  Otto Lopez (148)

Home Runs:  Heriberto Hernandez (16)

RBI:  Liam Hicks (62)

Stolen Bases:  Esteury Ruiz (28)

Wins:  Sandy Alcantara (13)

Saves:  Pete Fairbanks (18)

ERA:  Josh Ekness (2.00)

Managers:

Pittsburgh Pirates: Don Kelly (2nd season)

Miami Marlins: Clayton McCullough (2nd season)