Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Preview and Odds - 06/22/2023

Game Time: 6:40 pm ET, Thursday, June 22, 2023

Venue:  LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL

Where to Watch:  BSFL

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates +105, Marlins -125; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates +105, Marlins -125; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Pirates +105, Marlins -125; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Pittsburgh Pirates:  34-38 (4th place, NL Central)

Miami Marlins:  42-32 (2nd place, NL East)

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Pittsburgh Pirates:  1-9 last 10

Miami Marlins:  7-3 last 10

The Pirates are entering this game on an 8 game losing streak and got swept 3-0 in their 3-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers in their last series. They enter this game with a 34-38 record overall and have a road record of 16-20. This is the series opener of a 4-game series with the Marlins on Thursday with the series finale of their series against the Chicago Cubs still to be played on Wednesday. Their offense ranks 18th in the MLB with a .714 OPS. Rich Hill is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Mitch Keller is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 8-3 with a 3.62 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 ER, 1 HR, and 3 BB with 7 Ks on 5 hits through 5 IP against the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Marlins are entering this game off of a loss in their last game but completed the sweep 3-0 in their 3-game series against the Washington Nationals in their last series. They enter this game with a 42-33 record overall and have a home record of 22-15. This is the 1st game of a 4-game series with the Pirates on Thursday with the 3rd game of their series against the Toronto Blue Jays still to be played on Wednesday. Their offense ranks 16th in the MLB with a .718 OPS. Sandy Alcántara is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Braxton Garrett is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 3-2 with a 3.88 ERA this season. His team won their last 4 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 0 homers, and 1 BB with 8 strikeouts on 4 hits through 6 innings played against the Washington Nationals.

The current betting odds have the Marlins listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Marlins got off to a slow start this season as they were struggling at the beginning but now they are 10 games above .500 and have boosted themselves up to 2nd place in their division. They still have a ways to go to catch the division leading Braves but they have been really hot lately and will be looking to beat up on a struggling Pirates team that has been starting to regress after such a hot start. The Pirates were in 1st place of the NL Central just a week ago but they have been slipping all the way down to 4th place now as they are a few games under .500. They have Keller starting in this game who has been really good all season, but even he has started to regress lately along with the team as he is coming off a bad start in his last one. The Marlins will be able to take advantage of the way he has been slipping up in his starts lately and this hot Marlins team will be looking to get after him. The Marlins are going with Garrett here and he is coming off a great start in his last one, he will be looking to repeat that performance at home here and the Pirates offense has been so bad over the last week too. The best way to place a bet here is on the Marlins to win this game.

Pirates Marlins Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, June 22, 2023 (6:40 pm ET start time) is Marlins 6 Pirates 1.

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Pittsburgh Pirates: 47-79 (-13.3 units) on the moneyline against left-handed starters. 11-24 (-9.4 units) on the moneyline after 6 consecutive games versus division rivals. 20-12 UNDER after 6 consecutive games versus division rivals.

Miami Marlins: 42-32 (+13 units) on the moneyline in all games. 32-22 (+13.4 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 11-4 UNDER at home with a money line of -100 to -150. BRAXTON GARRETT is 25-12 UNDER in all games.

Pittsburgh Pirates:  A. McCutchen (DH) Out Wed - Elbow. B. Reynolds (CF) Out Wed - Back. J. Hernandez (RP) Out indefinitely - Calf. R. Zastryzny (RP) Out indefinitely - Forearm. C. Holderman (RP) Out indefinitely - Wrist. V. Velasquez (SP) out for season - Elbow. W. Crowe (SP) Late June - Shoulder. J. Choi (1B) Early July - Achilles. J. Brubaker (SP) out for season - Elbow. O. Cruz (SS) Mid Aug - Ankle. J. Garcia (RP) Out indefinitely - Bicep. M. Kranick (SP) Late Aug - Elbow.

Miami Marlins:  E. Cabrera (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. J. Segura (2B) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. T. Rogers (SP) Late June - Bicep. T. Nance (RP) Late June - Shoulder. J. Chisholm Jr. (CF) Late June - Foot. A. Garcia (RF) Out indefinitely - Back. M. Barnes (RP) Out indefinitely - Hip. J. Cueto (SP) Late June - Bicep. A. Bender (RP) out for season - Elbow. M. Meyer (SP) out for season - Elbow.

“Offense creates energy. When you go through a stretch, especially with young players, it will speed up on you a little bit. I think that’s where we’re at right now.” - Derek Shelton after his team’s loss against the Cubs in their game on Tuesday.

“We talk about Arraez all the time but what this kid did against one of the better lineups in the league was really impressive to watch.” - Skip Schumaker after his team’s loss against the Blue Jays in their game on Tuesday.

Ji Hwan Bae (L) 2B

Ke'Bryan Hayes (R) 3B

Jack Suwinski (L) CF

Connor Joe (R) 1B

Josh Palacios (L) LF

Henry Davis (R) DH

Cal Mitchell (L) RF

Rodolfo Castro (S) SS

Austin Hedges (R) C

Luis Arraez (L) 2B

Jorge Soler (R) DH

Bryan De La Cruz (R) LF

Jesus Sanchez (L) RF

Garrett Cooper (R) 1B

Joey Wendle (L) SS

Jonathan Davis (R) CF

Jacob Stallings (R) C

Garrett Hampson (R) 3B

Batting Average:  Drew Maggi (.333)

Hits:  Bryan Reynolds (72)

Home Runs:  Jack Suwinski (15)

RBI:  Bryan Reynolds (40)

Stolen Bases:  Ji Hwan Bae (20)

Wins:  Mitch Keller (8)

Saves:  David Bednar (14)

ERA:  David Bednar (1.73)

Batting Average:  Luis Arraez (.398)

Hits:  Luis Arraez (104)

Home Runs:  Jorge Soler (21)

RBI:  Jorge Soler (45)

Stolen Bases:  Jazz Chisholm (14)

Wins:  Jesus Luzardo (6)

Saves:  A.J. Puk (9)

ERA:  Eury Perez (1.54)

Managers:

Pittsburgh Pirates: Derek Shelton (4th season)

Miami Marlins: Skip Schumaker (1st season)