by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Jul 05, 2023
Game Time: 10:10 pm ET, Thursday, July 6, 2023
Venue: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Where to Watch: MLB Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Pirates +200, Dodgers -240; Over/Under: 8 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Pirates +200, Dodgers -240; Over/Under: 8 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Pirates +200, Dodgers -240; Over/Under: 8 runs
Season Record
Pittsburgh Pirates: 40-45 (3rd place, NL Central)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 47-38 (2nd place, NL West)
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Recent Form
Pittsburgh Pirates: 5-5 last 10
Los Angeles Dodgers: 5-5 last 10
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Preview and Analysis
The Pirates are entering this series on a 2 game losing streak and lost their 3-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 40-45 record overall and have a road record of 18-24. This is the series finale of a 4-game series with the LA Dodgers on Thursday with the 3rd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. They also lost the series opener of this series on Monday but won the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 22nd in the MLB with a .711 OPS. Rookie pitcher Osvaldo Bido is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Johan Oviedo is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 3-9 with a 4.61 ERA this season. His team lost their last 5 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 8 ER, 1 HR, and 3 BB with 1 K on 9 hits through 5 IP against the Milwaukee Brewers.
The Dodgers are entering this series on a 2 game losing streak and lost their 3-game series against the Kansas City Royals 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 47-38 record overall and have a home record of 25-16. This is the 4th game of a 4-game series with the Pirates on Thursday with the 3rd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. They also won the 1st game of this series on Monday but lost the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 5th in the MLB with a .774 OPS. Rookie pitcher Bobby Miller is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Julio Urías is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 5-5 with a 4.94 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 5 earned runs, 0 homers, and 2 BB with 2 strikeouts on 6 hits through 3 innings played against the Kansas City Royals.
Pirates vs Dodgers Prediction
The current betting odds have the Dodgers listed as a big favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Dodgers are in 2nd place of their division right now with a record almost 10 games above .500 but they have been struggling a lot this season for a team of their quality. They need to start turning things around if they want to be in the running for the NL West and hopefully their loss against the Pirates and series loss against the Royals have served as their wake up call to get going. They still have one of the best offenses in the league while the Pirates have one of the worst offenses so this is a great opportunity for the Dodgers to lean on their offense here with this pitching matchup. The Pirates have Oviedo starting and he just gave up 8 runs in his last start as he has been giving up a ton of runs lately. The Dodgers will take advantage of the scoring opportunities they get here and should be able to bury the Pirates in runs here at home. The Dodgers have Urias starting and he hasn't been great this season but he has been a reliable starter for them in the past and he has the quality to bounce back this season and start pitching a lot better. He will have a much better start against this weaker Pirates lineup and the Dodgers offense should carry them to a win here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Dodgers to win this game and on the runline.
Pirates Dodgers Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Thursday, July 6, 2023 (10:10 pm ET start time) is Dodgers 7 Pirates 2.
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MLB Betting Trends
Pittsburgh Pirates: 13-7 (+9.5 units) on the moneyline against NL West opponents. 14-11 (+7.2 units) on the moneyline against left-handed starters. 13-6 OVER against NL West opponents. 26-18 OVER in night games.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 19-19 (-16.6 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -150 or more. 47-38 (-9.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 23-14 OVER as a favorite of -150 or more. 25-15 OVER when the total is 8 to 8.5.
Key Injuries
Pittsburgh Pirates: J. Bae (SS) Out indefinitely - Ankle. J. Choi (1B) Mid July - Achilles. W. Crowe (SP) Mid July - Shoulder. J. Hernandez (RP) Mid July - Calf. K. Hayes (3B) Mid July - Back. V. Velasquez (SP) out for season - Elbow. R. Zastryzny (RP) Mid July - Forearm. J. Brubaker (SP) out for season - Elbow. O. Cruz (SS) Mid Aug - Ankle. J. Garcia (RP) Out indefinitely - Bicep. M. Kranick (SP) Late Aug - Elbow.
Los Angeles Dodgers: D. Hudson (RP) Mid July - Knee. C. Taylor (SS) Mid July - Knee. C. Kershaw (SP) Out Indefinitely - Shoulder. S. Miller (RP) Late July - Neck. A. Reyes (SP) out for season - Shoulder. T. Thompson (LF) Early Aug - Oblique. N. Syndergaard (SP) Out indefinitely - Finger. D. May (SP) out for season - Elbow. T. Cyr (RP) Late July - Shoulder. J. Feyereisen (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. R. Pepiot (SP) Mid July - Oblique. W. Buehler (SP) Early Sept - Elbow. G. Lux (2B) out for season - Knee. B. Treinen (RP) Early Sept - Shoulder.
Notable Quotes
“July Fourth baseball is always lit, and to have a comeback like that with the boys and be able to finish it off is a blessing. It just shows the boys if you keep working hard, you keep trusting in your processes, you keep grinding and keep staying resilient, good things happen.” - Josh Palacios after their win against the LA Dodgers in their game on Tuesday.
“If a player says he feels good, then you've got to trust him and quite honestly we didn’t have anyone else. It was the right spot for him, he was ready to go and it didn’t work out.” - Dave Roberts after his team’s loss against the Pirates in their game on Tuesday.
Starting Lineups
Pittsburgh Pirates
Andrew McCutchen (R) DH
Bryan Reynolds (S) LF
Henry Davis (R) RF
Carlos Santana (S) 1B
Jack Suwinski (L) CF
Nick Gonzales (R) SS
Jared Triolo (R) 3B
Rodolfo Castro (S) 2B
Austin Hedges (R) C
Los Angeles Dodgers
Mookie Betts (R) 2B
Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
Will Smith (R) C
Max Muncy (L) 3B
J.D. Martinez (R) DH
David Peralta (L) LF
Jason Heyward (L) RF
James Outman (L) CF
Miguel Rojas (R) SS
Statistical Leaders
Pittsburgh Pirates
Batting Average: Drew Maggi (.333)
Hits: Bryan Reynolds (74)
Home Runs: Jack Suwinski (18)
RBI: Carlos Santana (43)
Stolen Bases: Ji Hwan Bae (20)
Wins: Mitch Keller (9)
Saves: David Bednar (16)
ERA: Yerry De Los Santos (0.90)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Batting Average: Freddie Freeman (.313)
Hits: Freddie Freeman (106)
Home Runs: Mookie Betts (23)
RBI: Mookie Betts (57)
Stolen Bases: Freddie Freeman (11)
Wins: Clayton Kershaw (10)
Saves: Evan Phillips (12)
ERA: Tyler Cyr (0.00)
Managers:
Pittsburgh Pirates: Derek Shelton (4th season)
Los Angeles Dodgers: Dave Roberts (8th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
