by Rod Pearson
Monday, Jun 12, 2023
Game Time: 8:05 pm ET, Tuesday, June 13, 2023
Venue: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Where to Watch: MARQ
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Pirates +135, Cubs -155; Over/Under: 9 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Pirates +135, Cubs -155; Over/Under: 9 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Pirates +135, Cubs -155; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
Season Record
Pittsburgh Pirates: 34-30 (1st place, NL Central)
Chicago Cubs: 28-37 (4th place, NL Central)
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Recent Form
Pittsburgh Pirates: 7-3 last 10
Chicago Cubs: 4-6 last 10
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Preview and Analysis
The Pirates are entering this game off of a win in their last game and won their 3-game series against the New York Mets 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 34-30 record overall and have a road record of 16-14. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Cubs on Tuesday and they have Monday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 13th in the MLB with a .732 OPS. Mitch Keller was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Luis Ortiz is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 1-2 with a 4.23 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 1 K on 10 hits through 5 IP against the Oakland Athletics.
The Cubs are entering this game off of a loss in their last game but won their 3-game series against the San Francisco Giants 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 28-37 record overall and have a home record of 15-16. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Pirates on Tuesday and they have Monday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 19th in the MLB with a .713 OPS. Hayden Wesneski was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Jameson Taillon is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 1-4 with a 7.02 ERA this season. His team lost 9 of their 10 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 earned runs, 2 homers, and 4 BB with 5 strikeouts on 5 hits through 5.1 innings played against the Los Angeles Angels.
Pirates vs Cubs Prediction
The current betting odds have the Pirates listed as an underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Pirates got off to a really hot start this season before cooling off a bit and regressing, but they have still managed to stay over .500 and are fighting for the lead of the NL Central now. They have been a really hot team with a surprisingly good offense this year and they have also been a money machine as an underdog. The Cubs haven't been that great this season with their losing record overall, they have been better in their home games but they still have a losing record in those too. The Cubs also have Taillon on the mound here and he has been terrible in all of his starts as he has not only been giving up a ton of runs, but the team has failed time and time again as they have only won 1 game all season with Taillon as the starter. Ortiz is up for the Pirates and he hasn't been great this season but he hasn't been bad either and has been pitching a lot better in his starts lately, giving up less and less runs. His continued improvement along with the solid offense of the Pirates should be enough to win this game over a struggling Cubs team with bad pitching in this game and a slipping offense too. The best way to place a bet here is on the Pirates to win this game.
Pirates Cubs Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, June 13, 2023 (8:05 pm ET start time) is Pirates 7 Cubs 3.
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MLB Betting Trends
Pittsburgh Pirates: 16-14 (+8.4 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +125 to +175. 10-4 (+9 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 10-3 UNDER against division opponents. 12-6 UNDER after 7 or more consecutive home games.
Chicago Cubs: 17-28 (-11.3 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 0-8 (-9 units) on the moneyline after allowing 9 runs or more. 26-16 UNDER after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more. 10-5 UNDER after batting .225 or worse over a 5 game span.
Key Injuries
Pittsburgh Pirates: V. Velasquez (SP) out for season - Elbow. W. Crowe (SP) Late June - Shoulder. J. Choi (1B) Early July - Achilles. J. Brubaker (SP) out for season - Elbow. O. Cruz (SS) Mid Aug - Ankle. J. Garcia (RP) Out indefinitely - Bicep. M. Kranick (SP) Late Aug - Elbow.
Chicago Cubs: C. Heuer (RP) Late June - Elbow. N. Burdi (RP) Late June - Appendix. S. Suzuki (RF) Ques Tues - Undisclosed. J. Steele (SP) Prob Sat - Forearm. C. Bellinger (CF) Late June - Knee. E. Rios (DH) Out indefinitely - Groin. B. Boxberger (RP) Late June - Forearm. A. Sampson (SP) Out indefinitely - Knee. E. Roberts (RP) out for season - Elbow.
Notable Quotes
“When you see someone of his caliber of player that’s chasing a milestone and staying consistent with their approach 100%, there’s no better model for young players than watching a veteran player handle himself like that.” - Derek Shelton on Andrew McCutchen after his team’s win against the Mets in their game on Sunday.
“He was so in control of his pitches. It was just a next-level conviction in every pitch with him in control of things.” - David Ross after his team’s win against the Giants in their game on Saturday.
Starting Lineups
Pittsburgh Pirates
Andrew McCutchen (R) DH
Bryan Reynolds (S) LF
Connor Joe (R) RF
Carlos Santana (S) 1B
Jack Suwinski (L) CF
Ke'Bryan Hayes (R) 3B
Ji Hwan Bae (L) 2B
Tucupita Marcano (L) SS
Austin Hedges (R) C
Chicago Cubs
Mike Tauchman (L) CF
Nico Hoerner (R) 2B
Christopher Morel (R) RF
Ian Happ (S) LF
Dansby Swanson (R) SS
Yan Gomes (R) C
Matt Mervis (L) 1B
Patrick Wisdom (R) DH
Nick Madrigal (R) 3B
Statistical Leaders
Pittsburgh Pirates
Batting Average: Drew Maggi (.333)
Hits: Bryan Reynolds (65)
Home Runs: Jack Suwinski (13)
RBI: Bryan Reynolds (38)
Stolen Bases: Ji Hwan Bae (19)
Wins: Mitch Keller (8)
Saves: David Bednar (14)
ERA: Yerry De Los Santos (0.00)
Chicago Cubs
Batting Average: Nico Hoerner (.282)
Hits: Nico Hoerner (67)
Home Runs: Patrick Wisdom (14)
RBI: Nico Hoerner (29)
Stolen Bases: Nico Hoerner (14)
Wins: Marcus Stroman (7)
Saves: Adbert Alzolay (3)
ERA: Adbert Alzolay (2.10)
Managers:
Pittsburgh Pirates: Derek Shelton (4th season)
Chicago Cubs: David Ross (4th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
