Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Preview and Odds - 12/04/2025

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Thursday, December 4, 2025

Venue:  Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL 

Where to Watch:  ESPN+

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Penguins +170, Lightning -205; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Penguins +175, Lightning -210; Over/Under:  6 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Penguins +170, Lightning -200; Over/Under:  6 goals

Pittsburgh Penguins:  13-7-5 (4th place, Metropolitan Division)

Tampa Bay Lightning:  16-8-2 (1st place, Atlantic Division)

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Pittsburgh Penguins:  4-3-3 last 10

Tampa Bay Lightning:  8-2-0 last 10

The Penguins are entering this game with 31 points, a 13-7-5 record overall, and they are 7-3-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Philadelphia Flyers in their last game, winning that one on the road 5-1. Sidney Crosby led the team in goals scored with 2 while Bryan Rust, Kevin Hayes, and Tommy Novak each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Bryan Rust, Erik Karlsson, and Evgeni Malkin each led the team in assists with 2 while Sidney Crosby led the team in shots on net in that game with 5. Tristan Jarry was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 1 goal on 29 shots with 28 saves and a .966 save percentage. Their offense has scored 79 goals this season averaging 3.2 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 71 goals against them allowing 2.8 goals per game.

The Lightning are entering this game with 34 points, a 16-8-2 record overall, and they are 8-5-0 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the New York Islanders in their last game, losing that one on the road 2-1. Dominic James scored 1 goal for them in that one. Emil Lilleberg and Nicholas Paul each led the team in assists with 1 while Anthony Cirelli led the team in shots on net in that game with 6. Andrei Vasilevskiy was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 2 goals on 23 shots with 21 saves and a .913 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 85 goals this season averaging 3.3 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 67 goals against them allowing 2.6 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Lightning listed as a big favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Lightning have looked great in their games this season with their 16-8-2 record overall which has them right at the top of their division in the East. They have looked good on home ice too with their 8-5-0 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Penguins have looked good in their games this season with their 13-7-5 record overall which has them in the top half of their division in the East. They have been a good road team this year too with their 7-3-3 road record. They are off a 5-1 win over the Flyers in their last one and they have looked a lot better this year under their new head coach than they looked last season, but they have been starting to cool off lately. They are 4-3-3 in their last 10 games and have been really up and down during this time. The Lightning have been red hot lately though. They are 8-2-0 in their last 10 games and even though they are off a 2-1 loss to the Islanders in their last one, they will be looking to bounce back now that they are back at home. Their offense has been finding the net a lot more in their games lately, and their defense has looked a lot better too. The Lightning have looked like the better team lately and they will bounce back with the home advantage here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Lightning to win this game and on the puckline. 

Penguins Lightning Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Thursday, December 4, 2025 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Lightning 4 Penguins 1.

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Pittsburgh Penguins: 85-104 (-20.9 units) on the moneyline in all games. 32-51 (-23.3 units) on the moneyline off a win in their previous game. 41-61 (-17.3 units) on the moneyline against explosive offensive teams - scoring 3+ goals/game. 7-3 OVER on the road against good starting goalies - saving 91.5% of shots against or more.

Tampa Bay Lightning: 63-37 (+4.5 units) on the moneyline in home games. 29-21 (+6.9 units) on the moneyline when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%). 81-56 (+10.2 units) on the moneyline against excellent power play teams- scoring on over 17.5% of their chances. 22-16 OVER at home after 1 or more consecutive losses.

Pittsburgh Penguins:  J. Koppanen (LW) Day To Day - Illness. N. Acciari (C) Out - Upper Body. J. Brazeau (RW) Out - Upper Body. J. St. Ivany (D) Out - Lower-Body. F. Hallander (C) Out - Leg. R. Rakell (RW) Out - Hand. C. Jones (D) Out - Lower-body. T. Howe (LW) Out - ACL.

Tampa Bay Lightning:  B. Point (C) Out - Undisclosed. E. Cernak (D) Out - Undisclosed. V. Hedman (D) Out - Undisclosed. M. Crozier (D) Out - Undisclosed. R. McDonagh (D) Out - Undisclosed.

"Special teams played a big role in today's game as well. Thought each side of the special teams did an outstanding job." - Dan Muse after his team’s win against the Flyers in their game on Monday.

“I thought we played pretty well, to be honest. You grab me the team in this league that goes 82-0, I want to see that team. Nobody likes to lose games, but there are times when you win some games and you don't play that well, maybe you don't deserve it. Sometimes you lose games and you've leaned on a team, you've done everything quite possible, and it doesn't go in for you. And that's what I thought this was. We had the puck a lot, we had our chances. They didn't go in, but I can't fault our effort and everything we did. The bounces, I guess, ran out for us.” - Jon Cooper after his team’s loss against the Islanders in their game on Tuesday.

LW Kevin Hayes

C Sidney Crosby

RW Bryan Rust

LD Parker Wotherspoon

RD Erik Karlsson

G Tristan Jarry

LW Brandon Hagel

C Anthony Cirelli

RW Nikita Kucherov

LD Janis Jérôme Moser

RD Darren Raddysh

G Andrei Vasilevskiy

Points: Sidney Crosby (29)

Goals: Sidney Crosby (18)

Assists: Evgeni Malkin (20)

GAA: Sergei Murashov (1.90)

Points: Nikita Kucherov (32)

Goals: Brandon Hagel (15)

Assists: Nikita Kucherov (21)

GAA: Andrei Vasilevskiy (2.31)

Coaches:

Pittsburgh Penguins: Dan Muse (1st season)

Tampa Bay Lightning: Jon Cooper (14th season)