Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/02/2026

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Thursday, April 4, 2026

Venue:  Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL

Where to Watch:  ESPN+

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Penguins +142, Lightning -170; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Penguins +140, Lightning -170; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Penguins +145, Lightning -170; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Pittsburgh Penguins:  38-21-16 (2nd place, Metropolitan Division)

Tampa Bay Lightning:  46-22-6 (2nd place, Atlantic Division)

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Pittsburgh Penguins:  6-3-1 last 10

Tampa Bay Lightning:  6-2-2 last 10

The Penguins are entering this game with 92 points, a 38-21-16 record overall, and they are 20-9-8 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Detroit Red Wings in their last game, winning that one at home 5-1. Egor Chinakhov, Anthony Mantha, Justin Brazeau, Noel Acciari, and Rickard Rakell each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Egor Chinakhov, Connor Clifton, Connor Dewar, Elmer Söderblom, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, Ryan Shea, and Sidney Crosby each led the team in assists with 1 while Evgeni Malkin led the team in shots on net in that game with 5. Stuart Skinner was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 1 goal on 23 shots with 22 saves and a .957 save percentage. Their offense has scored 263 goals this season averaging 3.5 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 238 goals against them allowing 3.2 goals per game.

The Lightning are entering this game with 98 points, a 46-22-6 record overall, and they are 23-13-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Montreal Canadiens in their last game, losing that one at home 4-1. Jake Guentzel scored 1 goal for them in that one. Ryan McDonagh and Zemgus Girgensons each led the team in assists with 1 while Nikita Kucherov led the team in shots on net in that game with 6. Andrei Vasilevskiy was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 2 goals on 21 shots with 19 saves and a .905 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 268 goals this season averaging 3.6 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 207 goals against them allowing 2.8 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Penguins listed as an underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Penguins have looked good in their games this season with their 38-21-16 record overall which has them right near the top of their division in the East. They have been a great road team too with their 20-9-8 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Lightning have looked really good in their games this season with their 46-22-6 record overall which has them right near the top of their division in the East. They have looked good on home ice too with their 23-13-1 home record this season. The Lightning are 6-2-2 in their last 10 games and they are starting to play better now with the playoffs right around the corner, but they are off a 4-1 home loss to the Canadiens in their last one and they have had a lot of trouble since coming back from the Olympics. They haven't been the same team as they were before the break and this Penguins team is starting to roll now as they are getting hot at the right time. The Penguins are 6-3-1 in their last 10 games and they have been rolling with 2 wins in a row now. They are off a 5-1 win over the Red Wings in their last one and they aren't going to take their foot off the gas since they aren't safe yet. They only have a 3 point lead over 3rd place in their division which isn't a lot, but they are also still at risk of falling into the Wild Card race, so they are going to keep playing right to the end of the season and they have been getting healthier lately too, Crosby returning to the lineup. This is good value for a hot Penguins team against a Lightning team that just hasn't looked right lately. The best way to place a bet here is on the Penguins to win this game. 

Penguins Lightning Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Thursday, April 4, 2026 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Penguins 5 Lightning 2.

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Pittsburgh Penguins: 110-129 (-20.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 55-81 (-21.1 units) on the moneyline against explosive offensive teams - scoring 3+ goals/game. 20-38 (-11 units) on the moneyline versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.5+ goals/game. 25-15 OVER against explosive offensive teams - scoring 3+ goals/game.

Tampa Bay Lightning: 45-27 (+5.5 units) on the moneyline as a home favorite of -200 or less. 25-8 (+15.6 units) on the moneyline after playing 3 consecutive home games. 45-29 (+9.7 units) on the moneyline when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%). 24-15 OVER against explosive offensive teams - scoring 3+ goals/game.

Pittsburgh Penguins:  B. Rust (RW) Day To Day - Lower Body. B. Lizotte (C) Out - Upper-Body. F. Hallander (C) Out - Leg.

Tampa Bay Lightning:  V. Hedman (D) Out - Illness. D. Carlile (D) Out - Undisclosed. D. James (C) Out - Leg. M. Crozier (D) Out - Abdomen.

“It’s so important for our group that we have that, you know, four lines and anybody can go out there and find a way. Whether it’s turning the momentum our way by creating some chances or by going out there and scoring goals.” - Dan Muse after his team’s win against the Red Wings in their game on Tuesday. 

"We gave ourselves a chance to at least get points out of the game; I can't say we gave ourselves a chance to win. We had the puck a lot in the third period. It's going to say we had 37 shots; we probably should've had 57. I didn't think we created enough." - Jon Cooper after his team’s loss against the Canadiens in their game on Tuesday. 

LW Rickard Rakell

C Sidney Crosby

RW Bryan Rust

LD Parker Wotherspoon

RD Erik Karlsson

G Arturs Silovs

LW Jake Guentzel

C Brayden Point

RW Nikita Kucherov

LD Janis Jérôme Moser

RD Darren Raddysh

G Andrei Vasilevskiy

Points: Sidney Crosby (67)

Goals: Anthony Mantha (30)

Assists: Erik Karlsson (47)

GAA: Stuart Skinner (2.90)

Points: Nikita Kucherov (121)

Goals: Nikita Kucherov (40)

Assists: Nikita Kucherov (81)

GAA: Andrei Vasilevskiy (2.32)

Coaches:

Pittsburgh Penguins: Dan Muse (1st season)

Tampa Bay Lightning: Jon Cooper (14th season)