by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Oct 27, 2022
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Venue: Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC
Where to watch: ACC Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: North Carolina -3
FanDuel: North Carolina -3.5
BetMGM: North Carolina -3
Caesars: North Carolina -3
Season record
Pittsburgh: 4-3 (1-2 ACC)
No. 21 North Carolina: 6-1 (3-0 ACC)
We’re quickly approaching the fun time of the year where conference title games are made and upsets are the norm in college football. After minimal change in the top-25 polls this week, what in the world can we expect this time around? One thing you can be sure of is Kyle Hunter and his 22-9-0 mark in college football over the last month. Sean Murphy has also seen a profitable month at 28-15-0 over the last 30 days. What does the world have in store this time around with what should be another exciting week of college football? Follow our best bets page and make sure to be in tune with what our champion handicappers have to say this week!
Pittsburgh - North Carolina preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Pittsburgh: lost 24-10 at Louisville
North Carolina: won 38-35 at Duke
The Pittsburgh Panthers are coming into this crucial ACC matchup at 4-3 and just 1-2 in conference play. That’s been a far cry since the beginning of the year when they were considered favorites to repeat as ACC champions. Pittsburgh is coming off a 24-10 loss at Louisville after alternating a win-loss stretch against Georgia Tech (losing 26-21) and winning 45-29 against lowly Virginia Tech. In the Cardinals game, Pitt struggled heavily to get anything going through the passing game. Kedon Slovis threw for 158 yards but tossed two interceptions on the road. Unfortunately for Slovis, he couldn’t beat Malik Cunningham, who completed less than 50 percent of his passes but threw two touchdowns. Panthers running back Israel Abanikanda was the only bright spot with 129 yards on 28 carries and the only touchdown Pitt scored on that night. Slovis had done so well at the start of the year, but the USC transfer has since cooled off significantly, evidence of what happened this past week. Abanikanda also led the Panthers in receiving with 50 yards on 3 receptions, which tells you all you need to know about how far off the Panthers’ offense has fallen off.
The Pittsburgh Panthers are coming into this crucial ACC matchup at 4-3 and just 1-2 in conference play. That’s been a far cry since the beginning of the year when they were considered favorites to repeat as ACC champions. Pittsburgh is coming off a 24-10 loss at Louisville after alternating a win-loss stretch against Georgia Tech (losing 26-21) and winning 45-29 against lowly Virginia Tech. In the Cardinals game, Pitt struggled heavily to get anything going through the passing game. Kedon Slovis threw for 158 yards but tossed two interceptions on the road. Unfortunately for Slovis, he couldn’t beat Malik Cunningham, who completed less than 50 percent of his passes but threw two touchdowns. Panthers running back Israel Abanikanda was the only bright spot with 129 yards on 28 carries and the only touchdown Pitt scored on that night. Slovis had done so well at the start of the year, but the USC transfer has since cooled off significantly, evidence of what happened this past week. Abanikanda also led the Panthers in receiving with 50 yards on 3 receptions, which tells you all you need to know about how far off the Panthers’ offense has fallen off.
"We didn't make enough plays offensively," Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi said. "When you put the ball on the ground, that just can't happen. We've got to protect the ball better. Not going to win many ball games minus-3 (turnover margin) again."
The North Carolina Tar Heels, now No. 21 in the country, are looking to push their winning streak to four games and go 4-0 in conference play. The Tar Heels are coming off a 38-35 win over Duke, their second straight 3-point victory after winning 27-24 at Miami on Oct. 8. The fact UNC has been able to win these last two at home against pesky opponents is something to be proud of. If we know anything about North Carolina, it’s going to score a ton of points while giving some up. Drake Maye found Antoine Green for an 8-yard touchdown with 16 seconds remaining for the victory. Maye had a tremendous evening throwing for 380 yards and three touchdowns while running for 70 yards. Josh Downs caught 9 passes for 126 yards, while Antoine Green caught 4 for 112 and a touchdown. UNC gave up 542 yards of total offense.
"We've still got so many things we can fix," UNC coach Mack Brown said. "We can play so much better. That's the fun part of this team. There's an upside here that we haven't scratched."
Prediction
This would normally be the game where Pittsburgh finds its way back with the offense coming through. But if North Carolina tends to get that passing game going against a defense that’s given up 209 passing yards per game, there might be something there. But with UNC just 3-point favorites, I like that line of UNC keeping things close and holding serve. Yes, the Tar Heels are going to be behind the 8-ball defensively, but being at home is going to help them in a big way and you can never count out the home crowd in this type of big game. UNC by 7
Betting trends
Pittsburgh is 1-6 ATS in its last seven as an underdog
Pittsburgh is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 road games.
Pittsburgh is 45-42 ATS off a road loss since 1992.
North Carolina is 9-14 ATS in its last 23 as a favorite.
North Carolina is 2-8 ATS off three straight conference games.
North Carolina is 0-6 ATS off a bye week in the last three years.
Statistical leaders
Pittsburgh:
Passing: Kedon Slovis -- 1,325 yards, 5 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Israel Abanikanda -- 959 yards, 13 TD
Receiving: Jared Wayne -- 411 yards, 1 TD
North Carolina:
Passing: Drake Maye -- 2,283 yards, 24 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Drake Maye -- 378 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Josh Downs -- 425 yards, 5 TD
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Pittsburgh Panthers - North Carolina Tar Heels prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
