Game Time: 7:00 PM ET, Sunday, April 3rd, 2022 

Venue:  Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

Where to Watch: NBA League Pass

DraftKings:  Spread:  Suns -14.5; O/U 223

Fanduel:  Spread:  Suns -14.5; O/U 223

BetMGM:  Spread: Suns -14.5; O/U 223.5

Suns: 62-15, 1st place Western Conference and entire NBA

Thunder: 22-55, 14th place Western Conference and 4th Worst in the NBA

An NBA Western Conference matchup between the best of the best and the worst of the West.  Technically the Houston Rockets are worse than the Oklahoma City Thunder, but in a random 2 game way.  The Phoenix Suns have run roughshod over everyone in the league.  The Suns tied and are in the process with 5 games left of setting a new franchise, all-time, record for wins.  The Suns are 7.5 games better than the NBA’s second winningest team.  The Suns are a complete machine of winning with all-star SG Devin Booker, NBA legend PG Chris Paul, powerful C Deandre Ayton, Swiss Army Knife SF Mikal Bridges, and muscled vet PF Jae Crowder.  The bench for the Suns is deep and heavily battle-tested as they kept the winning going even when CP3 missed crucial end of season games with a hand injury.  The Suns feel and look unstoppable.  The Thunder bring very little to the table.  They have a bright future with SG Josh Giddey, a teenager who can not affect winning and losing.  They have an assortment of young athletic players that may or may not be special in the future.  The rumor of PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as a future force in the league has become nothing more than a tired meme at this point.  The excitement of finding SG Luguentz Dort among the ranks of undrafted players a few years back has worn off.  Dort is a defensive minded SG and they have been playing him at SF when they play him.  The Thunder have a treasure trove of picks and over the next few seasons they will be trading practically everybody on the roster not named Josh Giddey… just to add the new rookies.  We have no idea where this roster is going… but we do know they are not much to put on a court right now.

The Phoenix Suns have won 9 of their last ten games. They went 7-3 ATS during that stretch.  They were on a solid ten-game winning streak until they dropped their April Fool’s day matchup to the Memphis Grizzlies.  That is of minor concern for the Suns as the Grizzlies are the team they are most likely to meet in the Western Conference Finals if everything breaks for the Favorites in the Playoffs.  In that loss SG Devin Booker had 21 points, but C Deandre Ayton and PG Chris Paul barely showed up.  Chris and Deandre were both -11 while on the court for the Suns… Their replacements PG Cameron Payne and C JaVale McGee actually outperformed the starters in a too little too late moment.  It very much felt like a rest game for the Suns.  I’m not gonna say coach Monty Williams held back… but he certainly was not pushing his guys.  When the Suns meet the Grizzlies again… Deandre and CP3 are guaranteed to not have as bad or disinterested games.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have won 2 of their last ten games.  They went 7-3 ATS during that stretch.  They represent a great betting opportunity night in and night out… because Vegas keeps giving them huge point spreads!  They covered 17.5 against Denver, 14.5 against Miami, and 11.5 against San Antonio… they lost an 11.5 to Charlotte and they lost a 13 against Atlanta… the scores and spreads have been all over the map.  Oklahoma City is one of those teams that is most likely to see the star of the other team take the night off for rest.  They still would not be favored when that happens.  OKC is also one of the lowest rated teams on NBA League Pass… almost no one clicks on them.  They lost their last game to the Detroit Pistons.  The Thunder’s leading scorer in that game was PG Theo Maledon with 28 points.  Theo is a 2nd round pick from 2020, he wouldn’t be getting many minutes on any other team, but the Thunder are missing SG Josh Giddey, PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, SF Darius Bazley, and SG Lugentz Dort for the rest of the season. That is essentially the bulk of the skill position guys who would normally start… Every game from here on out is essentially open tryouts for next year’s team… many of these guys will not make it.  PF Derrick Favors and PF Mike Muscala are both out for the season after disastrous performances this season… neither are expected to be in Oklahoma City next season.  PG Tre Mann, 2021 1st round pick, is the most recent to hit the injury list and is listed as Questionable.  The OKC GM wants him to play so he can be included in a draft day trade if necessary.  It’s all a mess in OKC.  

The Spread will be very big in this one.  The odd thing about trusting or distrusting a spread in the NBA is double-digits are a tall order.  The winning team usually sits starters and wastes the clock once the game is decided… the result can be a lot of bad beats either way.  

Nelly’s was 2-0 in the NBA last night and while all the attention is rightfully on the Final Four Saturday, there is an NBA opportunity we don’t want to miss. Nelly’s is 4-1 in our last five in the NBA to add to our huge 24-6 NCAA Basketball run, sitting on the BigAl.com leaderboard overall for the past 7, 30, and 60 days! Add in an NBA winner to your Final Four card tonight with Nelly’s. Go get it! Get Nelly’s Sports picks!   You can discover the best  picks right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers. NCAAF, NFL, MLB, college football… get positive value from all your bets! Expert picks!  Fun fact… winning a wager is much better than making a wager!

Phoenix is 62-15 on the season, but 42-35 ATS.  They have logged 40 Overs, 36 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 31-7 in road games.

OKC is 22-55 on the season, but 46-27-4 ATS.  They have notched 37 Overs, 38 Unders, and 2 Push.  They are 10-29 in home games.

The Suns are 3rd in scoring with 115.2 ppg, 11th in rebounds with 45.2 per game, and 3rd in AST/TO ratio with 2.1.  On defense they rank 9th while holding opponents to 107 ppg.

OKC is 30th in scoring with 103.9 ppg, 6th in rebounds with 45.8 per game, and 29th in AST/TO ratio with 1.6.  On defense they rank 17th while allowing 111.5 ppg  from opponents.

Our prediction for Sunday, April 3rd is…. Suns 122 - Thunder 107

This is a very tough game to predict.  If I was Monty Williams I would not play Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, or Devin Booker.  The opponents are barely a G-league team… The Suns have an 7.5 game lead in the standings over the Grizzlies… with 5 games left to play… why risk any starters against substandard competition that the bench players could easily handle?  The bet is Suns by 15 points… when the spread comes out that may be close to favoring the Thunder sadly.

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Phoenix:  20-9 ATS off an upset loss
Phoenix:  81-58 ATS as a favorite
Oklahoma City:  21-11 ATS as a double-digit underdog
Oklahoma City:  35-20 ATS when playing with revenge

Suns:  PF Frank Kaminsky (knee) Out ** SF Dario Saric (knee) Out

Thunder: SG Josh Giddey (knee) Out ** PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (?) Out ** SF Darius Bazley (knee) Out ** SG Lou Dort (shoulder) Out ** PF Mike Muscala (ankle) Out PF Derrick Favors (back) Out ** PG Tre Mann (hamstring) Quest ** SF Jeremiah Robinson-Earl Quest

Suns: PF Jae Crowder, SF Mikal Bridges, C Deandre Ayton, SG Devin Booker, PG Chris Paul

Thunder: PF Jaylen Hoard, SF Aaron Wiggins, C Isaiah Roby, PG Theo Maledon, SG Vit Krejci 

Suns: Monty Williams

Thunder: Mark Daigenault